Last Friday, the soon-to-be-broken-up Department of the Environment and Energy released their latest emissions projections. And like every other time these sorts of reports come out, it raises a few questions.
First up, Australia is projected to hit just 16% below our 2005 emissions levels by 2030. This is almost half the (minimum) 26-28% we pledged as part of the Paris Agreement, and explains why the Coalition is so keen to use their carry-over credit trick to cheat the system. That is, if the plan survives a “betrayal of trust” debate at the upcoming Madrid summit.
Secondly, that 16% assumes a renewables growth to roughly 48% of Australia’s electricity needs. The National Electricity Market (NEM) — the grid across the east coast of Australia — will hit 51%, while WA is expected to jump to 55%. Smaller regional grids will only get to 18%.
That nearly 50% renewables target is a far from impossible “neutral” scenario — most states have that as a target already, South Australia is already there, a number of coal plants are set to shut down in the next decade, and we’ll see storage ramp up with Snowy 2.0, the Battery of the Nation, and new pumped hydro.
But punters might remember that “50% by 2030” was literally Labor’s renewable target at the last election. The one that — paired with a 45% emissions target that would invariably require cuts in non-electricity sectors — the Coalition and their friends at The Australian claimed would basically bankrupt Australia.
Funny how things change.
The title of this article is not true at all. The report linked does not report a trend leading to 50% of energy being produced by renewables. Instead, what is reported is modelling using the garbage-in-garbage-out method to create graphs supporting Australia’s claim to have met its COP Paris commitments. The nonsense being put into the model includes extensive deployment of a battery technology that has yet to be invented. Let’s not forget that the one-time biggest battery in the world can only ever supply six minutes of little SA’s power consumption.
Curiously, it seems to assume that the State Labor governments’ promises to install 50% renewables actually would deliver 50% of energy. However they could only ever achieve 50% renewables capacity, not production. The windmills don’t even need to be plugged in to meet that promise. In fact they can’t be plugged in, because every megawatt of intermittent capacity on the grid would have to be matched with a ready megawatt of fossil backup that the modelling assumes we won’t have.
And in spite of all your prognostication, SA is actually producing 90%+ renewables.
Damn those facts, eh Roger.
It’s actually not about capacity, it’s more about delivery. The SA battery has delivered, and is fast paying itself off.
Damn renewables.