Blyth Valley! The Tories have taken Blyth Valley! Well bloody hell, apples and pears, slap me thigh, it’s only the bloody British election innit! And in the Little Britain of the Royal Mail Hotel West Melbourne election watchalong the mood is thunderous, gloomy, depressed, and so very very British.
The exit poll was out as soon as the big screen TV kicked into life, and it was a bastard, predicting the Tories with a stonking 368, Labour on 191, the SNP on 55, and the Lib Dems on a miserable 13.
That would give the Tories an 86 seat majority, protecting them not only from the blackmail of the Democratic Unionist Party but also from Tory Remainers who regained the whip. It’s looking pretty accurate if Blyth Valley, the second seat declared, is any guide (in Sunderland South, first called, Kevin Yuill, the Brexit Party candidate, may have cost the Tories a cheeky gain).
As the polls neared their close, the official Conservatives account tweeted an image: “Get Berxit done”. The accompanying text read “Make no mistake”. It’s the kind of deliberate bad joke, the “people talking about it because it’s garbage are still talking about it” tactic that those “digital gurus” Sean Topham and Ben Guerin deployed so well in service of Scott Morrison earlier this year.
Early reports of a “youthquake”, of high voter turnout favouring Labour, and that Boris Johnson’s seat might be in trouble apparently didn’t have any basis in reality.
Seventy-one Labour MPs are expected to lose their seats, the worst Labour result since 1935. At time of writing, 26 seats have been actually called, with three Labour losses already (two to the Tories and one to the SNP). Every single seat called so far — even those the party is holding — reported big swings against them.
The Tories are reportedly confident of winning Bolsover (Labour since its creation in 1950, and held by the quick-witted leftie Dennis Skinner since 1970) and Sedgefield (Tony Blair’s old seat, and Labour since 1935). Newcastle North (which Labour had by a margin of 10,000 in 2010) is looking close. Elsewhere, Jo Swinson’s terrible night looks like getting worse, with the Lib Dems leader projected to lose her seat.
If the exit polls are correct, Johnson will get the biggest Tory win since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. Lawks-a-lordy!
Something pretty perverse is going to have to happen if this is to take a different direction. It won’t. Gloomy, thunderous and dark. Labour supporters can console themselves that the rout began with a bit of symbolism, when the Tories won Blyth Valley. Apples and pears! Lord luvaduck, it’s over!
The Poms are going to get what they deserve in spades….absolutely zero sympathy.
If they have voted for more of the same I hope they enjoy it.
Of course if what they get isn’t what they expected it’s hardly their fault, they voted on their wishful gut.
As for Corbyn – if you want to turn an HMS Elizabeth around you’re going to need more than a sabot licence.
They will be happy, this Christmas
Just like Australia has?
For everyones sake, they’d better hope the lost Labour seats belong to Blairite traitors.
As with Australia, I hope these morons enjoy their upcoming recession.
“The exit poll was out as soon as the big screen TV kicked into life, and it was a bastard, predicting the
Tories with a stonking 368 …””
Oh really guys? .mmm So democracy is ok providing ONLY the correct result occurs. Is that the case? DOES
it occur to either of you that the MAJORITY of Brits have a unambitious desire to flick the EU – whatever
YOUR (collective) opinion might be?
> official Conservatives account tweeted an image: “Get Berxit done”.
Sitting in Japan, as I am, it SEEMS to me that the entire expletive UK articulated that very message at the polls. Such OUGHT to have been obvious to Corbyn from the beginning of the year.
> Early reports of a “youthquake”
ANY seasoned reporter OUGHT to have seen that clam for what it was. Did ANYONE chat with the 18-28 brigade? If so what were the questions and what were the results?
> Seventy-one Labour MPs are expected to lose their seats, the worst Labour result since 1935.
Oh do get real. This is like marking a very average yr 11-12 assignment.
Corbyn was perceived to have had some merit about 15 months ago; just LOOK at the press articles for that
period. Over the last 12 months his dithering and evasiveness but (actions speaking louder) his behaviour to
move more to the Left destroyed what credibility he had or, what benefit of any doubt he enjoyed. In the last six months he has exhibited himself as a prized idiot. Shorten was never unelectable (for all his faults) but, in the last three months, the same could not be said for Corbyn.
Anyone who has not realised that English speaking electorates have swung to the Right over the last 30
years is an idiot. Its NOT a matter of the phenomenon being good or bad. Indifference to the plight of ones neighbour is, at best, passe – fires and volcanoes and dribbling by the bleeding hearts notwithstanding.
> If the exit polls are correct
IF history is to be a guide the aggregate exit poll is HIGHLY correlated with the actual (final) result.
> Gloomy, thunderous and dark.
If you want to know the truth, GR, I’m probably more to the Left than you are but I’m infinitely more realistic
and considerably less (to non existent) sentimental! Corbyn’s PROBLEM is that (unlike Blair) he fails to realise
that the fellow on wages has an utterly different orientation to his equivalent circa the mid 70s; much less his equivalent mid 50s. The taxi driver, likely as not, has a small block in Spain. Ditto for the panel beater.
A few of us on this list did offer constructive advice to Albo which, to date, has been ignored. It is no less
applicable to UK Labor. Yet, like Corbyn, Albo is also the promise that seems to have bounded. ha ha. I’m over it.
You are right about the fellow on wages and the panel beater. Their equivalents here now see the Liberal Party as their natural home, the shop floor and trades hall a distant memory. The ALP should be very afraid but apparently are not terrified enough.
I’m inclined to think it’s more a case of the Poms saying collectively, “Please just shoot me and get it over with.” Boris offers an end to misery in its current form (even if it will be replaced by misery of another kind), while Corbyn offers a ghastly game of Brexit Snakes and Ladders that could see them right back at the start of the board. I don’t think many Poms could stand the thought of having to go through it all over again, regardless of whether they think Britain should stay or leave.
Disagree Graeski. I’ll put my neck out and claim that the justification for a Union in the early 18th century no longer exists. Similarly for Northern Ireland. It would make sense to retain a common currency and military but that is that is the extent.
There is no economic or political need for the UK, as such, to exist in an environment of technological globalisation. In other words : the UK is “Balkan-ising”! There is more emphasis on local identity and local economic issues than in pan quasi economic-block-building.
With all due respect your last sentence is in conflict with history. In fact the converse of your sentence is historically correct. (1) There was a referendum. (2) It seemed that there was a good deal of blue-collar support but, interestingly, less so among the “insulated” elites of those who slurp chard and vote Labor. As an aside the Y/N vote in Scotland was lost by those who had moved to Scotland because it is cheaper (resident over 60s get free rail travel etc) but wanted a dollar each way.
Honestly, I cannot understand a word you have written. Edit please!
The composition is in English Deb. With all due respect you may be more accustomed to the street-jibrish that one encounters on social media (not that I would know – not having a social media account) but when you get a minute find a free novel by Dickens (no copyright now) and do take the plunge.
As an aside, Dickens amounts to an interesting social commentary of the mid 19th century.
I tend to be with you Graeski.
It is the most rational assessment.
But like the stock market, which continues to defy gravity, one can only speculate.
Unless you’re deluded.
I just can’t get behind this assertion that English speakers swung right in the last 30 years because some can afford piddling investments.
We have had conservative governments in Australia for most of the history of the Federation. Other places arrived at a propertied labour aristocracy at different times, and owning property didn’t stop a load of knowledge workers voting Greens here.
Why did we have 2 terms of the ALP in government in the middle of this period? Why did Menzies last so long when there was a far better labour movement prior to the 90s?
It would be foolish to ignore the changes, but aren’t you giving it too much importance? Why is an appeal to the self interest of workers, like Corbynism, hamstrung by individualism in the UK electorate?
Personally, my bet is what sunk Corbyn was a lack of policy on Brexit. The UK voters have been telling pollsters for a while now that now the vote has happened, Brexit has gone from an elite concern to over half of respondents saying it is now their most important issue. You can’t go to an election like that with a freakish fusion of soft remain and soft leave. Pretty much told this large group of people they have no idea how to deal with their most important issue.
I do, however strongly agree that betting on ‘youthquakes’ is silly. I am a huge fan of music declaring a new generation will change everything. Silverchair’s song ‘Anthem for the Year 2000’ is a treat. We are the Youth and we are knocking on this door!
Draco, for the sake of your favourite deity, (1) the Hawke-Keeting act could NOT have been more Liberal. Hawke’s ministers trashed many of Whitlam’s reforms. As for Fraser the guy was actually a frustrated Fabian. Read his stuff circa 1995 and beyond. He was scathing of the lurch to the Right by his own party that he (later) described as “unrecognisable”.
As for a Menzies government it would look left of Corbyn nowadays with scholarships and heaps of social services. In fact you are making my point with your examples. Forcing the point Humphries “crashed” in 1964 but Regan, on more or less the same stuff, prevailed in 1980; 15 years hence when the economy was becoming tight.
If Obama and Hillary are representative of Republicans than (historical) democrats. Bernie and Lizzy Warren would appear “normal” if campaigning in Canada; not wack-oh as they do to the USA voter.
Re. your 4th para. there are more than a few similarities between UK Labor and Oz Labor during the election in Oz during May. Its about (uninformed) perceptions nowadays Draco; just take a look at FB or Whatever-gram. Morrison and Johnson (and I’ll bet Trump) kept it simple.
As to the franking stuff, that Labor made an utter balls of, the majority of it would have been under $500 (just do a calc for yourself) but it was regarded as a BIG deal to those who (as you have expressed it) possess “piddling investments”.
I actually remember Corbyn’s late brother. He lived in Kalgoorlie in the 70s and he introduced me (and others) to the local Labour branch which was famous for its wild parties (even by the standards of the 70s) and membership of the Hannan’s Club.
He was a decent chap. His brother entered the H.o.Commons a few years hence.
I’ll keep an eye out for the song that you mention.
“Draco, for the sake of your favourite deity (1) the Hawke-Keeting act could NOT have been more Liberal”
Does this mean that your post before makes you a huge fan of conservatives? I expected better from you, which is why I engaged at all.
It is especially odd when I argued against putting so much importance on their reforms that it turned the entire country into rentiers (the only reason to not vote for Labour parties possible).
I’ve conveyed to GR and others on a few occasions I’m a leftie who regards politics, and elections in particular, as a tennis match. For the purposes of spelling it out (see previous submissions of the week) Johnson had the “benefit” and moral ground of acceding to the result of the referendum. That advantage alone secured the the result for his party. Corbyn’s dithering assisted too.
As an aside, very FEW people comprehend Conservatism as a political ideology and I include GR on the point. Most of the uninformed will blab about “traditional values” or something equally idiotic when attempting to describe Conservatism. References exist if you are interested.
The breakdown of the U.K. Referendum was old v young.More old voted so leave got up, just. We will find out soon wether Johnson was defending the British sausage or he believes the free UK( if it holds) will rise to greater deeds.
Also Hawke/ Keating gave us Medicare and compulsory super. The Liberals(?) would love to tear both down.