After China’s success in curbing the spread of COVID-19 and the catastrophe unfolding in Italy and Spain, most of the western world is locking down their citizens.
UK, Canada, New Zealand, many US states and much of Europe have done so (and the results in Italy appear to be cautiously positive with new cases dropping day-on-day).
The exception remains Australia, which is now undertaking a disorderly mass of closures, forcing millions out of work, but allowing random businesses like hairdressers and shopping centres (and schools) to remain open.
While effective in bankrupting thousands of businesses, it is ineffective at properly curbing the spread of the virus as there is extreme confusion on what individuals can do.
First, we’ll look at what will happen as a result of this path.
Second, we’ll try to provide some rationale for it.
Since March 10, Australian infections have grown at 25.1% per day — that’s an exponential curve. If that rate continues in two weeks’ we will have 33,000 cases. In fifteen days, we will have 66,000 cases (where Italy is at).
While it is likely that the semi-measures announced will reduce this rate, it will remain significant.
The quicker we act with a full lockdown the caseload significantly reduces. As John Hempton noted yesterday, “if you can get the halving rate to three days, what are now 50,000 probable infections will dwindle to 50 in just a month. Most of those will have symptoms and be able to self-identify. Then we will have infection loads that track and trace, as we’ve seen in some Asian countries.”
The Australian piecemeal approach seems to adopt the worst of both worlds. Economically it is catastrophic, the majority of businesses have been compulsorily closed by the government.
Even worse, there is no endgame so owners (and consumers) are fearful and will overreact.
Meanwhile, asymptomatic super spreaders are free to roam around supermarkets and get haircuts, while children can go to school and infect their elderly teachers while people can go to the supermarket a dozen times a day.
Morrison and Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy have overruled Victoria and NSW in preventing a full lockdown. One explanation is some sort of political motivation from Morrison.
An alternative view is that Morrison himself preferred a full shutdown on March 18 and was been influenced by Murphy and Health Minister Greg Hunt.
Sources have told Crikey that both the Office of National Assessments and ASIS directly advised Morrison to move to full lockdown.
It is understood that the PM and most of cabinet agreed, but Greg Hunt and Murphy aggressively advocated against that approach.
Murphy (who is heading up the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee) however, is far from an expert on pandemics. He has zero experience in complex mathematical modelling.
UK PM Boris Johnson, who quickly flipped from adopting “herd immunity” to a full lockdown, wisely listened to the advice of the Imperial College of London.
The US has been influenced by Yaneer Bar-Yam, renowned systems scientist and physicist from the New England Complex System Institute.
As for Murphy, well, he’s a long-time bureaucrat at the Austin Hospital in Melbourne. His background isn’t in disease or pandemics or mathematical modelling, rather, he was a nephrologist (until 2005 anyway) — that is, he was an expert on kidney health.
In short, we have a flip-flopping and publicity hungry PM way out of his depth, being advised by a kidney expert turned hospital executive who seems even more out of his depth.
As I say, the worst of both worlds.
A bit unfair re Professor Murphy. His advice comes from a consensus of State medical officers and specialists in epidemics and viruses. It may not be always right, but it’s not just his view.
As a retailer who is allowed to remain open, I feel that the confusion within the public is so great that they BELIEVE we are closed even when we aren’t. So today I have sold nothing. We should have all been closed down in one go. It has been pointless remaining open.
Yesterday I made a trip into David Jones, BNE, & was one of the few customers in the premises. On the third level no other punter was visible – this was at 2pm.
The Gucci store is the litmus test for retail, the doorman is usually holding the punters back to restrict the number inside at any one time. There were only four customers, a rare sight.
So why are these general retail stores open? People either mistakenly believe they are closed or are being cautious by staying home.
Too little -too late.
If you really need a “believable expert”, Murphy is not the one.
Piecemeal is the word I feel hits the nail on the head in this article.
I felt a while ago that the Government here was cherry picking ideas from other countries’ responses and implementing them quickly, but without a clear overall strategy. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but here are just a couple of examples I recall and I may not have them in the right order.
USA closed it’s borders to foreign nationals from China
AUS closes it’s borders to foreign nationals from China
Trump sits down and gives USA a national address
Scott Morrison gives a sit down national address to AUS
Jacinta Ardern implements 14 day self isolation for all arrivals in NZ
Scott Morrison implements the above for AUS (and reports are that he lied about speaking to Ardern about it before she made her decision, when he didn’t)
Boris Johnson recommends herd immunity, encourages people to get out and about, keeps schools open
Scott Morrison recommends people get out and about (with rumours of a herd immunity approach here – flattening the curve but allowing 60% of people to be infected), keeps schools open
Boris Johnson and Trump change their tune because of the Imperial College report, but most of Britain/USA stay open
Morrison changes his tune, introduces more measures for social distancing etc. but keeps everything open
Ardern publishes a clear and concise 4 stage approach for NZ to follow to limit the disease.
Morrison stands up and announces we are at Stage 1 measures. Admits he has no idea what stage 2 or onwards mean or when/if they could be implemented
It is concerning to see the Government appear to randomly cherry pick measures from other countries, without providing any clear understanding of what we are trying to achieve or communicating our strategy (however fluid). Even worse to see the Government (or is it Morrison?) ignoring quality advice from experts in our own country, like the Grattan Institute and the recent advice from medical and scientific advisers it specifically hired to provide advice. Plus refusing to be transparent about the advice they are actually taking.
How can the approach of drawing this out for months and months and allowing everyone to join the dole queue while businesses fold, damage the economy less than than a short sharp lockdown with wage subsidies? Are they approaching this economic issue as though it is a ‘normal’ economic situation rather than one caused by a pandemic? Maybe someone with a better economic understanding can explain what they are trying to achieve?
Finally, why is no-one talking about Morrison’s complete inability to address the nation in a heartfelt way regarding how scared people are of losing their loved ones, the actual effects of the virus and people becoming sick and dying. Did no-one else notice that another Australian died of COVID-19 yesterday and Morrison didn’t even mention it or publicly send any wishes to her family in his address? Nope. But only 10 ppl can go to her funeral. Disgusting.
Well said, mb. Well said.