Our influenza vaccination clinics have gone nuts. At a recent one we administered over 70 flu shots to young and old, to sick and healthy alike. Not surprisingly, stocks are low, but still the people flock in. Demand has been unprecedented (sorry, promise I’ll never use that word again).
Last year people were told to wait until later in the season before being vaccinated. The flu season often peaks around August/September, and we know that immunity from the vaccine can fade after a few months. So vaccinating in, say, April, risked leaving people vulnerable four to five months later.
This year the advice has been different — we’ve been telling people to get in early. COVID-19 is bad enough. COVID 19 plus flu could be much worse. Hence the flocks
Call me sheepish, but I have a nasty feeling we may have got this one all wrong.
We are currently using extreme social distancing measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19. It seems to be working, with the curve bending or flattening or anyway doing something more desirable than shooting straight up. And this is with a virus that is already here, and is more infectious than the flu.
If social distancing works for something as easily spread as COVID-19, it is going to be even more effective with a less infectious agent like the flu virus. This was shown in the 1918 flu epidemic, when one of the most effective measures that reduced the spread of flu was social distancing.
There are already indications this is happening. January and February had higher numbers of flu cases than average years, but the curve is showing early signs of flattening and even dropping.
In other words, the societal measures we are taking for COVID-19 are at least as effective at reducing the flu risk. Yet we are vaccinating the hordes at a time that, I now believe, may be the least necessary.
My worst-case scenario? September arrives, COVID-19 is relatively contained and social distancing measures start being relaxed. The flu virus emerges, immunity from vaccination five months previously has waned and we now have a flu crisis.
COVID-19 has so far killed under 100 Australians. In the nasty flu outbreak of 2017, 1255 died.
As the photo below shows, the other day I bravely went for my flu shot. I’m beginning to wish I’d waited.
One possible solution would be a booster round of flu shots in a few months’ time, but is the government really going to fund this? I suspect not, even if we could persuade people to roll up their sleeves a second time around.
So amidst the hysteria of patients wanting flu vaccination ASAP, I’m considering advising them to hasten slowly. Social distancing is helping keep them safe now, vaccination will help keep them safer later.
Nick Carr is a Melbourne-based GP, author and broadcaster.
I hope you’re wrong, Nick. But, if you’re not, then one point of hope for that later part of the flu season is that the patients are now much more aware of the ‘flu’ danger, how to keep well and what to do if we feel sick. I liken this to the overlooked result of the 9/11 aircraft attacks and the change in attitude of passengers. Once, if your plane was hijacked, you behaved, complied and hopefully got released. Now we know you must fight back to your utmost ability and if lucky you will win because there are more of you than them. We underestimated that change in attitude (as some terrorists still do when they raise their deluded heads today), but we ‘the great unwashed’ now know the danger and we will wash our hands properly, we know how to socially behave and we can help to flatten the ‘seasonal flu’ curve.
I love the vax. We should all get as many 6 or 7 shots to make sure we beat the flu this year. The resident quack will probably only recommend 4 or 5 but is it enough? How about an intravenous 24/7 drip? That might do it. I don’t care what sh-t they put in it, even an rfid chip, who cares as long as we beat the flu. Great article.
Well Nick, having developed pneumonia and sepsis late last flu season, I’ll be vaccinating twice if need be. According to my ICU doctors the protection is 3 months and I got it from a schoolkid about a 4 months after my shot. NO wish to revisit that I can tell you, though part of it was my soldier on idiocy.
No probs vaccinating twice for me either.
NC’s concern sounds all too plausible.
Physical distancing (hate the term Social distancing) if it prevents Covid virus spread surely the orthomyxovirus will not meet a susceptible host and thus disappear. Two incubation periods without spread should do it. Problems will arise on the resumption of international travel without mandatory quarantine.
Thanks for covering this issue – as an at risk person (ie >70 and with a comorbidity) who is self isolating, I have been wondering whether the risk of venturing to the local surgery for my usual flu injection is justified at this time.
My doc allows only appts arranged before-hand by phone – no drop ins – and when you arrive you attract attention at the front and then are let in through the back door. One appt at a time, no-one else in sight. Mask and gloves a must, for staff and patients. Ring your local practice, or ring around – you may find similar arrangements. (There is of course the journey there and back, though.)
Thanks – will follow your suggestions
I got a script early, left it at the local chemist and had it last week. This was the first time in several years I’ve been able to get fluvax. All sold out mid season and I tried a lot of places.
I’d wondered along the same lines as Stunner too.