As Scott Morrison and other leaders begin to eye a return to something approaching normal, they must be a little jealous as they cast their eye towards China.
While a so-called snap back — or “V-shaped” recovery — is something Beijing may not have managed to execute economically as China heads for its worst economic year since the days of the Cultural Revolution, the situation is looking far more business-as-usual on the strategic front.
China’s gradual and relentless encroachment on the vast waters of the South China Sea, the site of a territorial dispute with seven neighbouring nations — Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei and Taiwan — has barely taken a pause during the COVID-19 crisis.
While some observers fear that Beijing may consider using the COVID-19 “pause” to seize control of Taiwan, its actions in the South China Sea remain far more concerning, at least for now.
The depth of the maritime disputes can be seen clearly in the nomenclature used by various nations regarding the area. In China, it is called the South Sea (nán hǎi) while Vietnam calls it the East Sea.
The Philippines formerly called its territorial waters the Luzon Sea but in 2011, as the dispute with China over the Spratly Islands escalated, the West Philippine Sea. Indonesia calls parts of the sea the North Natuna Sea — north of the Indonesian Natuna Islands.
In the past decade China has moved more comprehensively into disputed waters, first creating islands by transporting sand and then building military installations on some of them — after Chinese leader Xi Jinping quite specifically said it would not.
So trust in China’s intentions remain at a nadir that will have only been underlined by Beijing’s recent sinking of a Vietnamese fishing trawler, killing eight people. Vietnam lodged an official complaint with the United Nations. China is a signatory to the UN Charter but ignores it when it suits.
In mid April, Beijing announced that the Paracel Islands, the Spratly Islands, the Macclesfield Bank and surrounding waters would be administered as two new districts of Sansha City, an administrative area which China created on Woody Island in 2012. These areas are also claimed by Vietnam which is considering taking the case to the United Nation courts.
Significantly, China’s relentless continuation of its South China Sea strategy comes as a disastrously underprepared United States continues to suffer as the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The US military has become collateral damage, with thousands of personnel and dozens of US Navy ships seeing infections. Officials are spooked following the case of Asia-based aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, where there was a massive outbreak of coronavirus led to the ship’s captain being sacked and the secretary of the Navy resigning — although he is expected to be reinstated.
Following a subsequent outbreak on the USS Kidd, the US Navy reported 2162 confirmed cases of COVID 19 as of May 11. More than half are personnel on the USS Theodore Roosevelt or USS Kidd.
US military defence contractors have put workers on leave, making it unclear when production lines will be running at capacity again. Research into advanced technologies and materials is also being affected.
Upping the ante on military hardware during the crisis, China has unveiled a new helicopter carrier. The US has countered with a recent show of strength on social media, with pictures of its aircraft carriers and a message from the Chief of Naval Operations on Twitter, stating that the US Navy “has six carriers underway right now. Truman, Eisenhower, Reagan, Nimitz, Lincoln, and Ford all operating where ships belong… at sea …”
Australia, of course, has particular interest in what happens in the South China Sea.
There is the overriding imperative of making sure there is no hot conflict between China and any other country in the Asia Pacific. Apart from the obvious risk of any wars, the immediate and lasting economic fallout for Australia would be immense.
Asia constitutes about 80% of all our export markets, travelling through disputed waters not just to China but to our next two biggest export markets — Japan and South Korea — as well as to Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia.
Until recently Australia has been consistent in its criticism of China’s maritime adventurism in the South China Sea, but as we have noted here before, it has become distracted by its ill-advised freelancing on a coronavirus inquiry.
China is further muddying the issues as it (quite gleefully) presses trade buttons on barley and beef. It’s time that Canberra stepped back and looked more holistically on Australia’s relationship with China, focusing on the bigger picture where the South China Sea looms large.
According to the U.N., I thought that Taiwan was considered part of China.
It is, just as East Timor was considered part of Indonesia. The UN is not a moral arbiter.
Two comments.
I don’t think the USA will engage China in a war over the the South China Sea. Why? Because they know they can’t possibly win. So Australia should not participate in joint patrols with the USA in the South China Sea. I’m sure some Chinese General once said something like, ‘don’t fight a war you can’t win.’
Secondly, the call for an inquiry into the origins of SARS Cov2 was fair enough. But the problem is that Morrison has gone on and on and on about it. He now needs to keep his big mouth shut. If you continue to poke the bear, the bear is going to get very angry and any more future bans on Australian exports to China will hurt us more than they hurt China.
It is worth making one more contribution on the subject of this article, as the matter is by no means resolved. This is because it was discussed recently, amongst other things, in a radio interview with John Helmer, Aussie expat and investigative journalist extraordinaire. The interview in on Gorilla Radio, a progressive private broadcaster based in Victoria, British Columbia, where Helmer is a frequent guest. It can be heard here: http://www.gorilla-radio.com/2020/05/26/gorilla-radio-chris-cook-john-helmer-may-25-2020/
In essence, he identifies two parallel trends concerning the virus: covid19 itself, and corona psychosis. The former can be defended against with PPE, while the latter is a mental affliction due to excessive consumption of media lies. Sainsbury’s article and one troll here are examples of the latter. Helmer: “Consuming lies is the way you catch the corona psychosis; retweeting and retelling them in small, intimate spaces – laptop, tablet or smart phone – is the way they spread. Truth is an effective antidote (to media lies), but most infected individuals don’t recognise that they are missing it.”
A lot of ground is covered in the 1-hour interview, including how only two countries, USA and Australia, joined in hissing the WHO for its failure to affix “proper” blame on China for the covid19 breakout. And after being slapped down by the WHA, still believing that somehow this little country was at the head of a pack.
Helmer himself was banned from the ABC after doing an interview with ABC Melbourne in December 2013. The interviewer, Jon Faine, was stunned into silence when Helmer failed to reinforce his (Faines’s) prejudices against Putin and Russia, and told the truth instead. For that he was silenced by the Thought Police on the ABC board while the likes of Masha Gessen, Ed Lucas, Luke Harding and even the reptilian carpetbagger Bill Browder were subsequently given platforms.
The lack of comments here is telling. Perhaps it means that Crikey’s readers are not lapping up Sainsbury’s anal drippings after all. That’s a good sign. When there’s a propaganda war going on, hack journalists are a tool. There’s no point in replying to Sainsbury’s sludge item by item. Watch John Pilger’s “The Coming War on China” instead. Made in 2016 but fully prescient of what was coming.
Hi Al, I’m back to keep you informed about what’s happening in Russia. Latest I heard was that Putin is
looking like a ‘tired old wolf’. When are the Siloviki going to put the poor creature out of his misery?
Spinning off on another one of your tangents again I see. The subject here is Sainsbury’s dreck article about China. Not for its content (there is none so nothing to comment on) but that Crikey publishes this kind of hack “journalism” of which there is plenty enough already in the corporate media.
Regarding the matter you raise, though off-topic it’s nice of you to be so concerned about VVP. I have previously suspected that you are in love with him, thinking about him, hyperventilating about him riding bare-chested on a horse in Siberia, flying with eagles. Do you keep a picture of him under your pillow?
You could send him a nice email through http://endotkremlindotru/ and wish him well. There’s a box at the bottom left with the link. Should you get a reply perhaps you would be so kind as to share it with us. It would be a scoop to excel anything by Sainsbury.
Hi Al
I took your advice and received the following photo of your boss which shows he’s not looking so healthy these days. The photographer reckons he isn’t dead, just enjoying a nap. What a scoop. I can see the headlines now:
DESPITE PERSISTENT RUMORS PUTIN (& KIM) BOTH ALIVE
https://www.flickr.com/photos/ejectorseatreservation/89212500
By coincidence, Saker posted this piece on his site today. Describes u to a t:
http://thesaker.is/just-an-example-of-the-kind-of-things-moderators-and-i-have-to-deal-with/
It’s short, but I think just within your attention span. The comments are worth reading too. BTW do you keep a picture of your unrequited love object, VVP, under your pillow? You didn’t answer that question.
Al, I must admit I am somewhat intrigued by this ‘old sick wolf’ but these days it is more due to pity than anything else. He reminds me of the dog in Vladimov’s short novel “Faithful Ruslan’ (Vernii Ruslan). Have you read it? It’s about an old Gulag guard dog that doesn’t know what to do when the camp is closed down. He “perceives the empty camp as one huge prisoners’ escape and prefers to starve than to take food from stranger’s hands.” He can’t change his habits and is eventually shot. It is really sad how Putin thinks that Russia is still a huge prison camp and can’t take help from the West. All he can do is let himself (& Russia) be used as a rug for Xi Jinping to walk over while deluding himself he is a partner. As a certain American would say, SAD.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Your contributions here are in the public domain and can be strung together like beads on a string to show that you have an unhealthy, almost lustful obsession for the person of VVP. That is your personal obsession, existing only in the space between your ears. Understandable perhaps, as you inform yourself from the likes of the Moscow Times, who seem to be the only source of the “old sick wolf” meme you keep echoing. MT was recently critiqued by John Helmer in a piece to which I provided you with the link. A western-controlled propaganda organ operating in Moscow. Helmer also operates in Moscow but unlike MT, is credible.
Meanwhile, in the real world, VVP is perfectly healthy and handling the covid19 situation (which is the actual topic of discussion here) by video-conferencing from a quarantined office in Novo-Ogaryovo, Moscow Region. You can read about it here:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63340
Your reading habits are commendable. I have mine also, presently re-reading Suzanne Massie’s “Land of the Firebird”. And slowly working through Solzhenitsyn’s “Two Hundred Years Together”. Latter a bit difficult as except for excerpts no authorised English-language edition yet exists.
Al, thanks for the recommendations. Hey, whaddya say now about Mouse that roared Morrison’s crusade?? He even persuaded the old wolf himself to get on board and forced Xi to accept the investigation. Pretty good for a mouse, dontcha think?
Don’t underestimate us because of our size!! We’ve got a few tough critters here you may not be aware of. There’s the Tasmanian Devil, for one. Maybe we should start using that as our logo although personally I’d prefer the Wolverine one, immortalized by our own Hugh Jackman in the movie ‘Logan’. Have you seen it? Fantastic movie, should’ve got an Oscar. Maybe you can send a copy of it to Xi and the old wolf to let them know what they’re up against here!
Crikey released my reply after a couple of days in moderation and as I thought it would it provoked another spittle-flying spray from your good self. Quite amusing really. Confirms your sources of information as bad movies, Warner Brothers cartoons and propaganda websites (well-covered in articles in yesterdays Crikey). Tasmanian devil? Noisy but harmless critter nearing extinction due to facial tumours. Wolverine? North American critter. None in Australia. Never saw the movie of that name. I prefer the real world thanks. Like the one where VVP is in good health and conducting his administrative duties by video-conferencing from a quarantined office in Moscow. Quite sensible under the circumstances.
The “roaring mouse” meme? A “roaring mouse” only hears its own roars. Bigger critters hear only squeaking, as in short, sharp, high-pitched sounds. And so it is with our Scotty. I have to agree with the Chinese embassy that it is a joke. An international inquiry was always on the cards. Trying to claim credit for it is truly a joke. A political gesture for domestic consumption only, as you so ably demonstrate. And one that has back-fired badly already as far as barley growers are concerned.
This sadly reminds of Donald Horne’s 1964 observation that “Australia is a lucky country, run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck.” Sadly because nothing has changed since then, except by now “third rate” is more appropriate.
Al, chill out! Don’t be such a sore loser! As a loyal Aussie citizen (at least I assume you are, and not a foreign mole) you should be proud that we’ve ‘stood up for ourselves’ and kicked arse!! It’s full steam ahead for the Aussie Wolverine express!! Even the old wolf has joined us. Climb on board or you’ve be left behind in the dustbin of history.
I see. You’re just joking, then? Your humour is so dry that it’s beyond me. I sense a sharp edge of sarcasm, like the “foreign mole” bit. Nope. I’m a citizen exercising my right to an opinion contrary to yours and to free speech. Loyal Aussie? Loyal to what exactly? I protested against the war in Vietnam and the Iraq invasion, amongst other things. If that makes me disloyal then it’s a disloyalty to be proud of. There should be more like me. At the moment I’m “disloyal” to the way little snotty Scotty, to bolster his domestic credentials, is making an international fool of himself, and of this country as a whole. Another Tony Abbott so soon after the last one.
But you’re full-steam off to the the movies I see, even though there is no “Aussie Wolverine”, just an actor in make-up. If the fantasy world is your natural space, then go for it. I prefer to stay outside and follow what’s really happening in the world.
Btw have you been following how the “Russiagate” hoax is unraveling under Attorney General Barr’s investigation. Fascinating. And personally satisfying as the views I held on the matter are proving correct. No dustbin of history for me. I’m on the leading edge.
Al, you’re missing the point. The world is watching our every move. People are saying “Goddam, look at them Aussies! First they kickin’ Covid arse then they kickin’ Xi’s arse! Must be some mean mothers down there! They really got their sh*t together! Maybe we can get them to kick Trump’s arse!”
With Mighty Mouse Morrison (aka the Mouth) and his sidekick Mad Dog Dutton (aka the Mutt) in the engine room there’s no stoppin’ the Wolverine Express. Even the Old Wolf himself has signed on and though he’s not half the wolf he used to be, I reckon he’s not finished yet and could help us take down more than a few of them Wolf Warriors.
If you need any more proof of what we Aussies are capable of, just watch the Mad Max movies, especially the latest one, Fury Road. So climb aboard the Wolverine Express. Next stop: Taiwan!!
Whatever you’re smoking you’d better lay off before the men in white coats come to take you away.
While you were at the movies I’ve been visiting Dances with Bears. John Helmer has just posted two in-depth analyses on this very subject which I suggest you read. Long, thoroughly analytical, with links to sources. Beyond you perhaps but you should try. In essence Marise Payne has been thoroughly defeated at the WHO, and is now seeking better relations with Russia. Secretly. And much more. Lavrov is really laying down the rules.
Wolverine Express it seems is a leaky dinghy with no motor and no oars, foundering in the wake of the Russia-China Symbiosis.
At least we agree that Snotty Scotty and Potato Head are d*ckheads. As is our Marise. As inept as Julie Bishop but without the laser eyes.
Interesting post from Helmer. Wonder why the CCP is reacting so strongly if our action was so ineffectual. Actually I’m pleased with the CCP’s reactions because (1) it shows others the hidden costs of doing business with China (2) encourage us to diversify and (3) will help us reduce our addiction to coal faster. Let the CCP increase its trade with Brazil, at least until that fruitcake Bolsonaro destroys its economy.
My view remains that Australia, by still playing little brother Uc/deputy sheriff to the US, has again (and again) gotten itself into deep doo-doos. We’ll see how things pan out from here, though I’ve lost heart that this place ever learns any lessons. A least, if Helmer is correct, Marise Payne is trying to clean up the mess with some secretive back-channel communication. Our crap media here however remains oblivious. ABC news this morning was enough to make me puke. And I couldn’t even bear to watch the commercial channels.
China’s strong reaction is understandable. In Chinese culture there is a tradition of “politeness”. You can have disagreements with someone but you must do so politely. Otherwise you’re a barbarian. It’s no secret where natural Aussie crudity lies on the spectrum. Remember what Lee Kuan Yew said about us in 1996.
“Politeness” such as saying a country is a piece of chewing gum stuck on the bottom of your shoe? I’m more inclined to think it’s the typical behavior of an arrogant aggressive bully throwing insolent comments at random and getting offended at the slightest reprisal.
I put Xi, Putin and Trump in the same basket. This post by the pom Nate White from last year on Trump, which I’ve referred to previously in Crikey, describes perfectly my feelings on all three of them:
https://thesubtimes.com/2020/04/29/letter-how-our-english-relatives-see-todays-america/
More like an appropriate response to uncouth barbarians. Perfectly justified.
The rest is a recycling of your old views. Heard them all before. Keep them. They’re yours. I’ve had enough of this exchange and am moving on. Bye.
Uncouth barbarians! You mean like the million or so Uighurs in Xinjiang who are being stripped of their cultural identity and ‘educated’ to worship the one true Emperor? In that case I’m honored to be identified with them.
No. I refer to the third-rate twits who form Australia’s political class who are (again) playing little brother Uc/deputy sheriff to the US and stirring up trouble with China.
Regarding the other matter, here’s some supplementary reading for you:
https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1267/aq_sanctions_list/summaries/entity/eastern-turkistan-islamic-movement
Seems that along with the other dubious identifications that you have revealed here you are also a Jihadist.
I’ve truly had a gut-full of your whining, and will henceforth apply the third rule of dealing with a troll: stop feeding it. Finis.
Al, you can’t be serious! Who’s gonna keep you up to date about Russia if you stop following me. My latest hot tip is that both Putin and Russia are in a very precarious position right now because it looks like Razman Kadyrov is in a Moscow hospital with covid. Now if you know anything about Russia, you’d know that this guy is Putin’s right-hand man, probably the only one who can keep the lid on the Chechens, the ones who tore Russia apart in the 1990s. Putin pays him a small fortune to keep him onside so if he goes, Putin can kiss his arse goodbye. Better start praying he stays alive.
Two comments.
I don’t think the USA will engage China in a war over the the South China Sea. Why? Because they know they can’t possibly win. So Australia should not participate in joint patrols with the USA in the South China Sea. I’m sure some Chinese General once said something like, ‘don’t fight a war you can’t win.’
Secondly, the call for an inquiry into the origins of SARS Cov2 was fair enough. But the problem is that Morrison has gone on and on and on about it. He now needs to keep his big mouth shut. If you continue to poke the bear, the bear is going to get very angry and any more future bans on Australian exports to China will hurt us more than they hurt China.