Did Dan Andrews really want to put Victoria into a brutal stage four lockdown? While he retains the rusted-on support of many on the left (as Donald Trump does from the right), it feels like the premier just signed his own political death warrant.
Speaking to media and announcing the changes, Andrews casually noted that had stage three restrictions remained, it would have taken until the end of the year to get cases down to zero. This very significant off-hand comment was largely ignored by pretty much everyone.
Since when has the stated goal in Victoria, or anywhere in Australia, been to eliminate the virus?
Both state and federal governments have repeatedly said the purpose of the lockdowns since March was to suppress the virus, in order to ensure that the health system isn’t overloaded.
Victoria, which has declared a “state of disaster” for just the second time in its history, is nowhere near capacity in its health system.
Victoria has a total of 38 COVID-19 sufferers in intensive care (ICU). Crikey has been told that Victoria has surge capacity for 3000 ICU patients. That doesn’t sound like much of an emergency, let alone a disaster.
But suddenly, without any actual explanation, Victoria’s goal has switched to elimination.
The question arises: did the Andrews cabinet voluntarily move to stage four? Or were the unprecedented restrictions on Victorians forced by the federal government with pressure from other states? A moribund Victorian economy run by a Labor government also gives Scott Morrison, the master marketer, a handy patsy for his government’s own failures.
Victoria’s average infection rate over the past week is just under 500 per day and doesn’t appear to be growing. Looking at comparisons around the world — and it’s not straightforward given there are vastly different testing rates and population sizes — Victoria appears roughly in-line with the big European states like France, Germany and the UK, and far less badly hit than many US states like Arizona and Florida.
Victoria only looks disastrous when compared to Queensland, WA and New Zealand, which have had virtually zero community transmissions for months. But that was never the yardstick.
The “gangster move” for Andrews, a politician of strong acumen and cunning, wasn’t to bend to Morrison and move to stage four, but to do the opposite. This is especially because many (whether justified or not) blame the Andrews government’s handling of hotel quarantine for the second wave.
Here’s what Andrews should have said to maximise the chances of being re-elected:
“Unfortunately, elimination of the virus in Victoria without a near-term vaccine is a bridge too far. And while there has been outside pressure to enforce draconian stage four restrictions, I have decided that the damage to Victorian businesses, and more importantly to the Victorian people, would simply be too great.
“But from crisis, comes opportunity.
“The rate of infection in Victoria is, by international standards, low. As such we will slowly be opening for business, in a very cautious manner, with social distancing and mask wearing.
“High-risk gatherings, like sporting events, bars, nightclubs and cinemas will unfortunately remain shut for now, but lower-risk workplaces, such as restaurants and schools, will open. Like they have in places like Taiwan and Hong Kong with virtually no reported transmission.
“Importantly, given the virus is already freely transmitting throughout Melbourne, there is now no reason for us to stay sheltered from most of the world. I hereby demand Scott Morrison open up Victoria’s borders internationally.
“If Victorians want to go to Europe, you can. If you want to go to Asia, you can. We will also accept visitors for lower-risk countries (but not high-risk countries like the US or Brazil). That means most of our overseas students, who are so critical to our economy, can return.
“We are re-starting our economy to save jobs and to save lives. We will be playing the cards we have been dealt. For I govern on behalf of Victorians, not Scott Morrison, Greg Hunt or the people of Queensland and South Australia. If those states want to isolate themselves from the world, that’s up to them, but I declare Victoria open for business. And if Scott Morrison wants to lock Victorians up, it’s on him.”
My God, I didn’t realise that Crikey had any Murdoch-style death merchants writing for it. Then I saw that he’s a travel blogger. Pig at the trough indeed!
I guess he doesn’t have any relatives that work in health. In Brisbane, we had a big scare because one the nurses at an aged care facility in Pinjarra Hills had contracted COVID from some drongo that had visited Melboune just days before. My wife works at the organisation that owns, and knows someone who works at that facility. She was very upset about the whole thing. Fortunately, all tests so far of the 100+ residents returned negative. But because of the 14 day lag, they’ll still have to repeat testing.
Clickbait from Crikey.
Seriously? We’re in a pandemic and this Crikey writer is shouting about how draconian the restrictions are? Is suggesting we ought to “open for business” instead? Is back-seat driving what the premier should have said? Suggesting that the premier should care more about political survival than public health? I am really glad that Australia, unlike the US, is generally responding in line with medical advice, instead of ignoring it. And I think journalists shouldn’t be moonlighting in public health policy, unless they have actual credentials to do so. Educated critique is one thing – but this article ain’t it.
Seconded.
Really Adam? And what qualifications and experience do you bring to this matter? I’ll take the considered views and wisdom of someone with runs on the board like Bill Bowtell (if you weren’t around at the time, Google Australia’s HIV-AIDS response) ahead of the commentariat. I await your follow up piece outlining how badly NZ is going.
seconded. Probably believes Trump speaks the truth
There is a longish article on the ABC website which describes the envisaged “damage” to business over the next six weeks for Australia as a whole (and not just VIC) so Schwab is not alone (by any means) on this point Sue. Besides, apart of being in the kitchen is being able to cope with the “back seat driving” of the electorate. Its rather prevalent here at Crikey (writers and subscribers).
“Andrews casually noted that had stage three restrictions remained, it would have taken until the end of the year to get cases down to zero.”
Pretty sure he didn’t say “down to zero”.
“Victoria has a total of 38 COVID-19 sufferers in intensive care (ICU). Crikey has been told that Victoria has surge capacity for 3000 ICU patients. That doesn’t sound like much of an emergency, let alone a disaster.”
Tell that to the families of anyone in aged care or the health system. Also, you know that even “mild” cases of COVID can cause long-term lung and heart damage, right?
“Victoria only looks disastrous when compared to Queensland, WA and New Zealand, which have had virtually zero community transmissions for months. But that was never the yardstick.”
Says who? You really think Victorians don’t want to get to where Queensland and WA are at?
“Victoria appears roughly in-line with the big European states like France, Germany and the UK, and far less badly hit than many US states like Arizona and Florida.”
Very grateful you are not in charge Adam if you’re comfortable with being in the same boat as the UK, let alone the US.
Yeah, agreed, Marcus. It’s comforting to know that we have the capacity to allow up to 3000 Victorians at once to die or narrowly avoid death in the comfort of our ‘spare’ ICUs.
Agree that this article is very strange to accuse a premier who seems to be doing his utmost to minimise Victorian deaths of being too caring of Victorians lives and too little of his own political future! There is no economy without people. To oppose ‘the economy’ to ‘deaths by covid’ is also logical nonsense. and even if you put ‘the economy’ above lives, it stands to reason that the economy will decline the longer covid lasts and works its destruction and will improve when the virus has gone.
I’ve never seen so many readers upset by Crikey articles as in this edition. Mr Editor, does that tell you anything?
Is founding LuxuryEscapes.com a substitute for academic training in epidemiology these days? Do editors suggest that a primary school analysis of raw current ICU figures, without any consideration of a myriad of other relevant factors (eg, medical and nursing staff numbers, the need to protect those health workers, the occupation of vast swathes of the biggest teaching hospitals by Covid patients) by a travel consultant does Crikey journalism any credit?
Seconded!!
If I was respectfully disagreeing with you throughout the article (and I do like a good contrarian position), you lost me at:
“Importantly, given the virus is already freely transmitting throughout Melbourne, there is now no reason for us to stay sheltered from most of the world. I hereby demand Scott Morrison open up Victoria’s borders internationally. ”
Talk about a political death warrant.