The deeply unwanted message out of Auckland this week is that nowhere is safe from COVID-19. Not even the poster child of the pandemic, New Zealand — which racked up nearly three months without a new case — has been able to keep it at bay.
No one at this stage knows how a South Auckland man and his family contracted the virus and how many work and school colleagues have been infected. There’s no obvious connection with travel or recent entry to the country which, as in Australia, is limited to citizens and a tiny number of exceptions, and via quarantine.
The likely scenarios — that the virus penetrated NZ’s border restrictions Victoria-style, or that it has been circulating undetected in the community — are equally alarming.
Either way Auckland has been plunged back into strict lockdown and the rest of the country moved to stage two restrictions while authorities try to shut down the infection chains for all four active cases, in line with NZ’s strategy of draconian but shorter shutdowns.
If it can happen in NZ it can happen in Australia’s COVID-free states. And while the response might not be as harsh as the Ardern government’s yesterday, it would have inevitable consequences for state economies.
Until there’s a vaccine — a phrase that’s launched a thousand hot takes — we’re living on a tipping point. One day relatively normal life; the next, lockdowns, school closures, panic buying, queues and rationing.
Previous experience seems to have trained consumers to get their panic in early and hit the toilet paper and pasta aisles as soon as rumours of lockdowns begin circulating on social media. Maybe next time we’ll all have stocked up ahead of time.
Great for big retailers, abysmal for other businesses considering investment.
Lack of investment will remain the persistent problem in job creation in coming years. It was a problem in Australia before the pandemic: the government predicted it would be a disaster this year pre-Victoria (July’s forecast was for a fall in non-mining investment this year of just under 20%) and it will be much worse now.
The challenge for many businesses will be paying down debt once banks end their repayment moratoriums — not borrowing more.
Who wants to invest during a tipping point in which lockdown and panic could ensue at any moment?
This puts into context the claim of big business, the government and their cheerleaders in the media that sprinkling a little magical economic reform dust on the economy will turn around business investment.
Businesses weren’t investing before the pandemic, not because it was too hard to sack workers and cut wages, or because the tax rate paid by large and multinational corporations was too high, or because the GST was too low, or there was a forest of red tape for business to navigate — but because, in the words of the Reserve Bank in February, “slower domestic demand has weighed on non-mining investment”.
The RBA, consistent with that, now doesn’t expect non-mining investment to pick up until after consumption picks up — well into the 2020s.
That’s assuming we don’t end up in a nightmare scenario where no vaccine is found and we remain permanently on a tipping point between something like normality and a J.G. Ballard novel, all while keeping our borders closed.
The government could bring back WorkChoices on steroids and cut company tax to zero, and it’s not going to do much to lift investment, if anything.
The stubborn problem remains that while the virus is a threat, governments — state and federal, but the latter can raise debt most cheaply — will have to fill in part of the missing household demand and shrunken business investment with income support and public investment. Unless we want life on the tipping point to be a long, deep recession.
Good summary.
We are lucky to have a country as clean as NZ that can pinpoint unexpected infection paths.
They can give the world valuable insights that would be lost in the noise anywhere else.
Interestingly, internation freight is looking like a possible as a cause of infection. Apparently the South Aukland man works at a cold storage facility for food imports. COVID-19 quite likes the cold.
If that’s the case, it really does underline just how “the virus” will find its way through any chink in the armour. Uni of Melbourne epidemiolgist, James McLaw, was reported saying that if the virus was a person, he’d describe it as being “a psychopath with a very high IQ.”
So, back to wiping down stuff I bring back from the local grocery store before I put it away…
…back to wiping down…It’s an OCD paradise…you’ll never get all those ‘out damn spots’.
Insert hysterical laugter emojis here…
Cate R
“a psychopath with a very high IQ.”
Do you know anything about psychopaths Vivian? During my fair youth, when reading for Social Deviance in Psychology, I took rather an interest in the subject. For the layman Harris did rather a good job of describing salient characteristics in “The Silence of the Lambs”.
Yet, let us be clear. By ‘psychopath’ I don’t mean people such as the late Milat (of backpacker fame) or axe murders generally and neither does the literature on the topic.
Their characteristics are actually rather interesting. In brief, they tend to be well above average intelligence, excellent planners, very observant and have an enhanced quality of one of there senses. Harris selected ‘smell’ for Hannibal Lecter but it could be hearing or eyesight. There are books on the topic. Apparently, they can cope with extended periods of isolation (months; possibly years) so they are unlikely to break lock-down rules.
Erasmus:
I’m not an expert on the topic of psychopaths or their characteristics . , but am aware they flourish in a corporate environment and no doubt the political sphere.
They can be useful.
The emojis in my response to Cate didn’t publish .
I thought it was amusing the virus was labelled a psychopath.
… Unrelenting in it’s pursuit of world domination. 🙂
I clam to be reasonably well read and practiced in various occupations but I don’t claim expertise in anything. However, I do have a fetish in respect to accuracy and accuracy with the press, or rather the absence of it, is my pet aversion.
Psychopaths, from what I have read, flourish in any controlled environment. They actually feel uncomfortable in environments that are ‘unrestricted’ (for the want of a superior word). They also do very well in the military, prisons (on both sides of the fence) and I suspect they lament the loss of division between ‘officers’ and ‘clerks’ that was once a distinction of the Public Service to about the early 1960s.
It is difficult (as I understand it) to claim that X is a psychopath with complete confidence but history is replete with examples of those with such traits. The most famous is probably Sidney Reilly who was very useful indeed.
Well said Bernard.
The equal parts maddening and hope inspiring part is that the REAL hard work, in analysing and identifying the best evidence based reform solutions, has been done over and again by the productivity commission and a consensus of think tanks across the political divide.
We have all the answers sitting on the shelf- for so long infact they are collecting dust.
We sit here awaiting leaders of any creed or colour with the temerity to actually do what is right, not what is easy.
Let’s hope the current crop of ‘leaders’ heed Churchill and don’t let this crisis go to waste.
> message out of Auckland this week is that nowhere is safe from COVID-19.
Bernie, for the nth time, it *is* a virus. Viruses and some bacterium (e.g. TB) do have extended periods of dormancy. Zero cases does NOT mean that eradication has occurred; only, at best, that an act of suppression has occurred.
> No one at this stage knows how a South Auckland man and his family contracted the virus
Which is not at all a-typical of the case studies recorded in the literature. Viruses *do* “circulate undetected”, even in ‘carriers’, and charging about for a scapegoat goes back to Roman times.
> If it can happen in NZ it can happen in Australia’s COVID-free states.
Thanks Sherlock! Also, a nice pic of the panic buying and 180 degrees to the article by Jackie French a few days ago.
> The challenge for many businesses will be paying down debt once banks end their
> repayment moratoriums — not borrowing more.
Frankly, it is a challenge to the entire political system (in broad terms) as we know it. Business loans are just the ham in the sandwich.
> Who wants to invest during a tipping point in which lockdown and panic could ensue at any moment?
Which was my point to someone earlier in the week. The assumption is that the lock-downs actually achieve a reduction in infections and hence deaths. The virus thingee does NOT go away folks. The lock-down reduces the transmission but ultimately the virus will zap that quantity of people (over a period of years) with lock-downs or otherwise.
The degree of infection *is* going to vary from one location to another which is just good or bad luck depending upon the location. Therefore the initial conditions are going to vary just by circumstances.
Businesses investing is a function of non-mining investment but also of wage growth (flat as plate of water for a host of reasons) and aggregate demand. Keynes made that point 85 years ago.
The RBA [.. doesn’t expect non-mining investment to pick up ..] well into the 2020s.
As Mandy Rice-Davies observed (about 55 years ago) : “it [the RBA] wouldn’t would it”?
> That’s assuming we don’t end up in a nightmare scenario where no vaccine is found
Its less about a vaccine itself (which is a reduced version of the virus) than of the virus (1) mutating and (2) the anti-bodies generated. On the up side, over some decades, a herd immunity will develop. Such has been the case since Homo sapiens departed Africa (with their viruses) crica 70,000 odd years ago.
As to your conclusion the virus will come to be seen in relative terms (against cancer and other lurge etc) and not in isolation which is the sin that even your article commits Bernie. Even Rundle might get around to writing something associated with the long term and, hence, relinquish the obsession with the short term. To this end your conclusion does not make a lot of sense. There is a lot more knocking populations on the head than an overrated corona-virus.
Ok Erasmus, I’ll play along.
So lockdowns isn’t the answer- what is?
(Please don’t say “do nothing” and make me give you a lesson in exponential growth)
If Crikey affords me the space I commence with epidemics from the 17th century and some trends and policy will become obvious. I’ll need about 2,500 words and that would be cutting it to the bone.
As to exponential growth please see my lesson to Dog’s Breakfast regarding the topic. The infections possess a GEOMETRIC and NOT an exponential characteristic although, as I conveyed to DB, I accept that anything that is not liner is described by the untutored press as exponential; and in almost all cases utterly incorrect.
If you wish me to undertake a quick tutorial for yourself and others than please reply.
So you can’t boil your 2,500 word grand solution to the worlds problems down to an easily digestable highlights package?
If it’s too complicated to even say, I dare say like everything in life- it’s therefore too impractical to work.
Einstein managed to boil the universe changing concept of general relativity down to a succient highlights package that even laymen could wrap their head around.
Surely the right way to combat a simple little ‘overrated’ coronavirus should be but a doddle to summise?
I love a man with all the answers but won’t reveal them- it makes you look mysterious.
Unless YOU or the man in the street understands the ‘field equations’ [look them up] that begin with Maxwell’s equations then YOU or the man in the street understands NO SUCH THING and hence has no clue as to general or special relativity.
What can occur is that even a yr12 student can be taught some principals but the analogy is one of a pirate teaching a parrot an expletive using a handful of wheat.
Don’t fret Damien. Do you have any biological knowledge (say to 2nd year)? If not it will be a struggle but I think of something over the next day or so.
I’m keen to understand more 🙂
We all await with bated breath for Erasmus to regale us with the far superior, non lockdown, solution to the ‘overrated’ coronavirus.
Quite scandalous that this solution has been missed by every public health professional on the planet Earth.
Lucky for us, our resident hobbyist public health expert Erasmus is all over it, although it sounds like the biggest hurdle is that us mere mortals do not possess the requisite grey matter to comprehend the solution.
Quite the pickle indeed.
There isn’t a spurious claim that you have directed to me that I have not been able to refute Damian (and I could include a few others too). I could also reproduce the correspondence; merely of last week.
The mature approach is to rise above school-yard winging and identify a feature that you deem significant that has a basis in fact only.
You don’t seem to be the least interested in an informed discussion but it seems that you are addicted to your mega-phone from the sideline.
Once again, to use a similar simile to yours, Bernard comes over a shallow as a dinner plate of water.
The whole concern should primarily be about the welfare of the population and society in general: Economics and ‘business’ are a small subset of human activity; consequential, not the principle driving force – as much as the ‘movers and shakers’ with the capital resources would have us believe otherwise.
The most useful topic that I studied was Marxist Economics and later Post Keynesianism Rolly. Those topics changed me for life. However I am not sentimental (as you may have noticed) but I am somewhat Left of Lenin.
ANY community requires an economy (of sorts). Even an Amish community has an economy. The absolutely worst case would be the number of deaths to put the Australian population at about 1990. However, what empirical evidence that exists (to date) suggests a significantly less drastic conclusion.
It took a war (literally) to get production back (resources fully applied) to where it was early-ish 1929 from 1939-41 and then a concerted effort (to circa 1973) to keep it there.
Economies, unlike plants do not merely grow back. Evidence exists just walking about Hanoi – with next to zero tourists admittedly)
Insert hysterical lauging emojis here…
That was weird – the previous comment was intended to be a reply to Max Croninus…
Insert head-exploding emoji here…
“Viruses and some bacterium (e.g. TB) do have extended periods of dormancy. ”
Erasmus – Are you sure that’s right?
I know that *some* viruses have ‘latency’ in their life cycles, but I’ve not seen anything that suggests that cornaviruses generally – or COVID-19 in particular – is one of them. (And yes, TB is a bacterium that can sit dormant in a host.)
If COVID-19 isn’t a virus that goes through a latency phase, then I don’t see why it can’t be eliminated in a given population (like NZ).
My understanding is that most viruses can’t live outside a warm host body. To the extent that something – absent a warm host body – can be said be be ‘alive.’
They can be infectious in the air, or on surfaces, for a time. Depending on the virus, the level of ventilation, the surface and the conditions. For example, many usually last longer when it’s cooler, with lower humidity and less sunlight. And fragments can be found on surfaces for extended periods – apparently COVID-19 traces were found on the Dimond Princees 17 days after the passengers and crew left the ship – but those fragments wouldn’t have been infectious.
So – unless COVID-19 is a virus that causes latency infections – zero community transmission *should* mean that there is *no* virus in the community after the last case + the viruses’ incubation period + a few weeks more for good measure. COVID-19’s incubation period is generally 2 to 7 days, though I’ve read that there’s been one case where the incubation period was 27 days. NZ didn’t have a case for 102 days.
Interesting questions Cate. However, one has to make a distinction between a latent infection versus a persistent viral infection.
A latent viral infection occurs when the virus is present within an infected cell but dormant; i.e. not multiplying. In a latent virus the entire viral genome is present and infections may continue if latency ends and the infection becomes active. The latent virus may integrate into the human genome — as does HIV or exist in the nucleus as a self-replicating piece of DNA called an episome.
A latent virus can reactivate and produce infectious viruses and this can occur months to decades after the initial infection. Perhaps the best example of this is chickenpox, which although seemingly eradicated by the immune system can reactivate and cause herpes decades later. Fortunately, chickenpox and zoster are now prevented by vaccination – which requires constant review. To be infected with a virus capable of producing a latent infection is to be infected for the rest of one’s life. The Herpes viruses are by far the most common viral infections that establish latency.
Historically, corona-virus were deemed not to possess latency but there is increasing speculation in the journals that this feature could change. However to ‘persistence’. Persistent infections are characterized as those in which the virus is not cleared but remains in specific cells of infected individuals. A number of journals are claiming that positive diagnosis status for SARS-CoV-2 can last for months despite being symptomless. This is an example of a “persistent” infection, and they are by no means novel.
Any text on Medical Microbiology will describe Persistent Infections as nvolving stages of both silent and productive infection without rapidly killing or even producing excessive damage to host cells. It is not unusual for viruses to persist in the host, often without causing excessive harm.
Such is a overview from the standard texts. Then we have some media such as
Can the coronavirus reactivate? (Aj 12Apr20)
Newsweek 14 July
In an interview with state-run news agency RIA Novosti, Melita Vujnovic was asked to comment on reports from Barcelona, Spain, that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, had been found in wastewater samples from March 2019.
This finding led to Tom Jefferson, from Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, U.K., to claim the corona-virus may have been lying dormant around the world until environmental conditions were right for it to emerge.
The World Health Organization Representative to Russia has said she cannot exclude the possibility that the new coronavirus had been in a dormant state before the pandemic began.
To say that the entire saga is becoming a tad political, Cate, is (I think we would agree) something of an understatement. Even the BBC is pouring cold water onto Sputnic V. Even the Russians agree that more testing is necessary so why the hype?
Some politicians have (unbelievable) dismissed persistent infection as inadequate or clumsy initial testing. That is, those who tested negative and then tested positive amounted to crap testing in the first place. Its like a discussion with Damian.
There is, in the recent archives of Crikey, a discussion that I had with a contributor regarding the elimination (and not the suppression) of viruses. I pointed out that not even smallpox can claim to be eliminated for various reasons that would be tedious to reproduce here. Just based upon the history since the Neolithic the ‘eradication’ of viruses is a fiction. The medical history of Homo sapiens, even from the time of Columbus (or 1348 – take your pick) is learning to live with the pathogens (of which there are legion).
Apologies for overlooking your comment “apparently COVID-19 traces were found on the Dimond Princees 17 days after the passengers and crew left the ship – but those fragments wouldn’t have been infectious.”
I pointed out to my correspondent, when discussing smallpox, that a researcher came across the belongings of a Civil War soldier in the late 1930s. Traces of small pox among the personal affects were certainly active as it turned out.
I can’t comment on the find regarding the Diamond Princess because I am unaware of the test results (if any) but I do doubt the claim because viruses are “set up” (as it were) to “exist” – poor choice of word but I think you know what is intended – without a host for extended (decades) periods of time.
The whole event is a bit like being 10 years of age again and waiting for a week to determine, at the “flicks”, the fate of the Lone Ranger from the outlaws or the Indians or whatever.