Is it time for the Sweden haters to admit maybe, just maybe, the Swedes got it right?
To be sure, your writer is hardly immune from having to eat humble pie, having vociferously pushed a hard lockdown (albeit over a far shorter period than Victoria’s six-month incarceration) only to realise the data now tells us something very different.
Sweden’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell advocated a “light touch” approach, limiting gatherings to less than 50 people and encouraging social distancing, but eschewing mass lockdowns or business closures. Critics of Tegnell’s approach quickly point to Sweden’s relatively high level of deaths as all the evidence needed to suggest that the policy was wrong. And Sweden certainly did have a higher number of fatalities than many countries (currently 5821).
However, Sweden’s death rate is lower than other countries which forced harsh lockdowns, including the UK, Italy, Spain and Peru. Moreover, Sweden’s death rate was inflated by huge errors in its handling of outbreaks in (largely privately-run) aged care facilities (sound familiar?)
Sweden is a powerful case study in herd immunity. Early in the pandemic, it was speculated that COVID-19 would spread wildly until around 60% of the population developed antibodies. Back in March, when northern Italy was being overwhelmed, the World Health Organisation estimated that 3.5% of people who contracted COVID-19 would die.
Applying those two assumptions to Australia’s population, upwards of 525,000 people could have died. This level of death would almost certainly justify locking down the country and slowing the spread.
What’s the actual herd immunity level?
Sweden (as well as other regions which didn’t lockdown hard, but bent the curve, like Florida and Arizona) seemed to show that COVID-19 started to naturally fade away at levels well below the 60% infection rate. Blood sampling taken in May indicated that around 7.3% of Swedes had COVID-19 antibodies.
The reason for this is unclear, but epidemiologists writing in The Conversation suggested that upwards of 20% of the population may already have protective T-cells, possibly due to exposure to other coronaviruses. Interestingly, in cruise ships (like the Diamond Princess) and military boats where COVID-19 spread, it seemed to infect only around 20% of people.
Sebastian Rushworth, an ER doctor who was on the frontline of the Swedish fight against COVID-19 explained:
“The only thing coming into the hospital [in March] was COVID. Practically everyone who was tested had COVID, regardless of their presenting symptoms. People came in with a nosebleed, they had COVID. They came in with a stomach pain, they had COVID.
“Then, after a few months, all the COVID patients disappeared. It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single COVID patient in over a month.”
“At the peak three months back, a hundred people were dying a day of COVID in Sweden, [a country with] a population of 10 million. We are now down to around five people dying per day in the whole country, and that number continues to drop.”
Rushworth’s anecdotal views are matched by data. Here’s Sweden’s COVID death chart:
The herd immunity level is important. To estimate how lethal COVID-19 will be we need to multiple the infection fatality rate (IFR) by the level to which the population will be infected.
So what about the infection fatality rate?
Here we have another problem: estimating the IFR for COVID-19 is difficult. While the case fatality rate (CFR) is easy to calculate, it’s also largely irrelevant, since the disease presents asymptomatically in the vast majority of cases and it’s very difficult to get a test in Australia without symptoms.
The IFR rate from COVID-19 is highly dependent on the population’s age and quality of healthcare, as well as testing levels. In Singapore, the CFR is 0.05%, so the IFR would be probably around 0.02%. The Diamond Princess (which had an much older age demographic) had an estimated CFR of 2.3% and an IFR of 1.2%.
Australia’s current CFR is 2.3% but our IFR is more likely to be closer to 0.2-0.3%. UNSW blood sampling data indicated that Australia had an IFR as low as 0.04% in April.
Let’s be conservative and assume Australia has an IFR of 0.30% — worse than Singapore and the UNSW blood testing results, but better than Diamond Princess.
Now we have our two key assumptions:
- An infection fatality rate of 0.30%; and
- A herd immunity level of around 10% of the population.
Using those data points, we get to an estimated fatality level of 7500-10,000 for Australia (with a “Sweden level” of lockdown). While that number may be lower than reality, given the terrible management of aged care facilities by the federal government, it’s a fraction of the earlier 525,000 estimate.
The great concern in the community is still that, left unchecked, they are at risk of dying from COVID-19. This thesis is largely based on the scenes in northern Italy and New York, coupled with an unwillingness to take another look at the actual data. Let’s also not forget, of those who die from COVID-19, almost all are above 70 with at least one precondition.
As Rushworth noted, “it is nonsensical to compare COVID to other major pandemics, like the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions … COVID will never even come close to this number. And yet many countries have shut down their entire economies, stopped children going to school and made large proportions of their populations unemployed in order to deal with this disease”.
Nonsensical indeed.
Sweden actually teaches us nothing other than the value of hindsight.
It was not obvious back in March / April that this was not a re-run of Spanish Flu. It coulda been.
There were four possible results, two inputs “overdo it” or underdo it” each combined with each of “worse outcomes than expected” or “better outcomes than expected”. Sweden may have got it right with hindsight, which is mind-numbingly irrelevant. It was a big gamble.
Unbelievably, some people believe Islamic terrorism is and was a threat. Not by the numbers it wasn’t.
Decision making is most crucial when things “are not obvious”.
That’s what makes the Swedish decision so wonderfully insightful.
Our bunch of power junkies jumped straight to a Walking dead response, giving themselves increased powers and destroying the state and a once living city.
“Many comments here make the very reasonable point that Australians simply are not responsible enough to act in their own best interests”
Only scare-mongering marxists would advocate the lock-down/reset to force people to “act in their own best interests.”
I actually believe the commentators here and possibly one journalist are viewing this “pandemic” as endless political possibilities. This is a serious concern.
When the marxists are shown valid graphic data and opinions of respected epidemiologists that cannot be refuted, they love to cry out oh that’s hindsight!! hindsight!!…as if hindsight was some type of evil. Or when confronted with the facts as Adam Schwab has graphically pointed out, they cry out ..”but what if this happens or what if that happens”..”if if if if if”..itself just another scare-mongering tactic.
University of Nevada report a man who has been infected twice. 48 days after positive test, and two subsequent negative tests he is positive again, and it was not genetically the same virus. So we still do not know what is going on with this virus. In addition there is almost no mention of the longer term problems, & neurological complications being seen. Not just large vessel strokes in young fit people, but Guillain Barré syndrome & myasthenia gravis. There also appear to be longer term lung problems. As mentioned above this is early hindsight. Later hindsight is still around the corner.
Yes, so many people forget that this is a NOVEL virus. As such we still have no clue just how harmful or harmless it will be going forward. Yet so many armchair experts are happy to sacrifice lives in one giant open world Lab Experiment. Just to protect our precious “economy”. Who knows, maybe Covid will do for late stage Capitalism what Bubonic Plague did for Feudalism.
Yeah. not quite sure what this article uses as justification that they got it right… certainly more deaths than most…. Economic benefits of their approach? In numbers I mean, not just your feeling…
As others have mentioned, death is not the only significant outcome of this disease.. “Brain Fog”, prolonged debility and fatigue with sometimes very poor exercise tolerance, possibly even early dementia….
I’d rather not catch it at all and pleased we went hard to try to eliminate community spread.
Will never be eliminated. Do you really want to live in a police state? Id move to Sweden tomorrow, but this is the only first world country where you are not permitted to leave.
“Brain Fog”, prolonged debility and fatigue with sometimes very poor exercise tolerance, possibly even early dementia”
If you believe that then you are the only person here with Brain Fog. Which day-time television show did you see it on?. …or maybe if you are in your mid 80’s and have a pre-existing condition, but come on, keep it in perspective. Some people just love creating hysteria.
Jared, A quick google will show numerous press reports of expert concern about this as far back as May. Chronic-fatigue-like symptoms, amongst many others, are commonly reported. Brain fog is a common term for the mental debilitation of chronic fatigue. There are numbers of ongoing studies – one year long effort started back in May at Liverpool University. It may all prove relatively minor, or we may have large numbers of young to middle-aged people unfit for work for years into the future. Time will tell.
“A quick google will show numerous press reports of expert concern about this as far back as May.”
So the press reports that experts are “concerned”. There is a huge difference between being “concerned” and having real evidence. I am concerned too but I don’t believe everything, or hardly anything actually, that I read in the newspapers. So any vague symptom goes down as covid…Yep tick that box we might get some more funding. Now that I understand.
I have never seen so many ‘armchair exports’ pontificating on a subject which they know nothing about.
Do you even know anyone who has had Covid-19? I had a severe case for two weeks in March, have the lab test results to prove it, and my fitness levels (39 years old, sub-19 min 5k, 150kg deadlift, 72kg weight, 11% body fat) and mental acuity have never been better.
People would do well to stop sourcing their information from tabloid headlines, and start looking at medical journals and public health statistics, which are freely available online. The Lancet Study concluding that lockdowns have no impact on infection or death rates, and the Public Health England spreadsheets are just two of hundreds of sources.
I have been stranded in London and unable to visit my dying father in Sydney for the past 6 weeks because of a vocal minority of misinformed cowards, self-interested public servants, and assorted ‘useful idiots’ dictating global public health and economic policy – with disastrous consequences. I can only imagine that my grandfather (who helped clean up Hiroshima in WWII) is somewhere rolling his eyes in disgust at the disgraceful spinelessness of this generation.
I agree with your encouragement to appeal to qualified sources but we are dealing with those that need a ‘how to vote card’ to vote. As to the community level of comprehension just appeal to Schawb or Napier-Raman.
Take heart John. Granted, it is annoying but the political interference, extending to incompetence (via the cronyism), will be all to clear 18-24 months from now. However, you can expect (ceteris parabus), I expect, another six months in London.
By the way, I am 74 & still employed & active. Not quite ready for avoidable death.
I’m the same age as you and I have never seen a city ruined so rapidly by its “government” anywhere in the first world.
If you catch covid you will avoid death with 99% certainty unless you are health compromised and live in a aged care setting. We need to fix that.
My teenaged grandkids are paying the price for this. Not us.
Sweden’s population of 10 million v Australia’s 25 million
Sweden’s death rate of 5800 v Australia’s <700
Swede’s are usually more socially aware than Australians with regard to how they behave in public and would have generally done the right thing. We opened up for a day in Sydney and everyone flocked to the beach standing shoulder to shoulder.
Sure, Sweden got it right. So long as people dying doesn’t matter
As for Australia, locking down was right because we showed we weren’t ready to socially distance in public
Of course people dying matters. My wife works in an ICU in Melbourne and they recently had a baby in the ward on three separate occasions. They finally realised that the parents were BOILING the baby formula so the baby didn’t get any germs. This was making it sick because it wasn’t getting any of the good stuff either. It had been boiled out.
That’s exactly what we are doing in Australia.
Almost ALL of those who died were over 70 years of age; just LOOK it up on Statistica. Anyone under 40 in Sweden has a risk less than 1% which is lower than a road fatality anywhere in the 1st world.