It is now clear that something of a perfect storm has settled atop the China-Australia relationship and there are few signs that it will be moving on anytime soon.
The stoush between Australia and its biggest trade partner over security — and most explicitly Chinese interference in Australian politics, education and research — comes at a time when the Morrison government is desperate to reopen the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 shutdowns.
Yet growing hysteria by the federal government about the Victorian Labor government’s strict lockdown being a dead weight on the Australian economy is at sharp odds with the ongoing program of testing Beijing at every turn.
The Morrison government has chosen the precise moment when Australia’s economy is most vulnerable, with growth contracting at record rates, to pick a fight with our biggest trading partner.
That is not to say that Beijing should not be taken to task for its human rights abuses and its relentless campaign for influence in other nations. But when Australia begins saying and doing things it well knows will upset Beijing and result in retribution, there should surely be some sort of goal, an endgame.
There is a real sense that the various left and right hands in Canberra either don’t know what the other is up to, or are simply failing to properly co-ordinate in pursuit of unclear — or perhaps unknown — goals. This is likely a function of the security forces and defence, rather than professional diplomats and trade experts taking the running on the relationship with China.
The expulsion of the last two correspondents for Australian news media outlets in China is a case in point. At first blush it looked like journalists Mike Smith and Bill Birtles were the victims of China’s aggressive tit-for-tat over Australia banning of Chinese tech company Huawei, unilateral demands for a COVID-19 inquiry, “interference” over Hong Kong, etc. But it’s now clear it was directly in response to Australia’s own thuggish behaviour.
As Marise Payne was giving a media conference on Monday fulminating about how the Australian government is on the side of press freedom, she omitted that ASIO had raided the homes of Chinese journalists on June 26. It was likely this that precipitated the events that saw Smith and Birtles bundled out of China on the advice of DFAT.
It unclear when DFAT found out about the raids but it appears to be at least six weeks after Chinese-Australian broadcaster Cheng Lei was detained. There are other questions as to exactly what information DFAT had been given and by whom but it seems that the Chinese plan was to force the Australian journalists to leave — rather than have to detain and then expel them.
As China observers have all noted, if Chinese authorities had wanted to pick up the Australians and spirit them away they could have done so at any time. In China, there is no warning.
Instead, authorities chose a very obvious tactic of a midnight door knock and low-level questioning. These are not the actions of secret police who plan to detain people; they are the actions of a government trying to intimidate people into running.
But rather than sit back and consider the events over the 10 weeks since June 26 — which included an olive branch offered, a little clumsily, by Beijing’s deputy ambassador a week earlier — Canberra has kept doubling down.
Eschewing the olive branch, it launched another enquiry into Chinese influence, this time in universities, and then yesterday cancelled the visas of two long-term Chinese academics. These are precisely the type of actions that we have long taken issue with China doing.
Are we to see an ongoing witch hunt among China-born academics? Where does it end — does Canberra start burning books it does not like? Raiding journalists and expelling academics is the behaviour of a paranoid police state.
But really we should not be surprised. The Australian Federal Police and spy agencies now raid Australian journalists with impunity. Elected officials simply refuse to answer legitimate questions or obfuscate. We take China to task for its secret court cases and opaque legal system, yet we are mimicking precisely the behaviour we profess to stand against when it comes to cases like Bernard Collaery and Witness K.
More internal contradictions, no wonder no plan can be discerned.
Meanwhile China is taking each win as it comes. The latest Chinese import figures show that Beijing’s economic tit-for-tat is working as Australian sales to China are crashing.
As Australia bumbles along, busy getting tough with China without any plan — all tactics and no strategy, as former ambassador to China Geoff Raby wisely notes — Beijing will ratchet up the pressure at will until, perhaps, Australia rediscovers diplomacy, or at least a sense of purpose.
Until then, Beijing will continue to do us slowly.
It is plain our political, defense/security and foreign policy establishment are now entirely in thrall to the power of the Imperium. The fawning empire loyalty constantly on display from the federal government, amplified by US funded agencies such as ASPI and the Murdoch megaphone are a sickening replay of 1914.
To the Empire, Australia is an expendable asset in it’s war on China. Rather than standing up for our interests the feeble poltroons who pass for a government are offering up our wealth, our security, indeed our very lives to the blood-soaked tyrant on the Potomac.
Ironical that a letter (validly) critical of us sucking up to the US includes the American spelling of defence (ie defense).
An entirely valid criticism. I am rightly rebuked.
Love your characterization of the US Empire as the “blood-soaked tyrant on the Potomac.”
I hope you don’t mind if I use this one, I will provide your name as my source whenever I use it.
I recall reading a paper of Hugh Whites regarding what Australia should do in the face of a declining US and a rising China. He put up a number of options, with one being the “fawning scenario”. I put all my money on that one and it’s romping home with about five lengths of daylight to the next horse.
We really are doomed.
It is sad so much ink was spent on suggested strategies and it was all wasted on the idiots running this joint. All the way with Donald J was obviously what they would do but my god does it suck watching them do it.
Agreed I have been out of Australia for 12 years, returning in 2020. Seeing our governments, state and federal, in action has been depressing. I was used to the various clowns in the US, and thought I could not be shocked, but I am.
DRACO Where did you spend 12 years, in USA, no news service????
Couldn’t agree more Draco, the gravity of suckingness here is black hole equivalent.
Your intent to attribute is most noble Robert, but what if her real name isn’t Griselda Lamington?
No, we are not doomed, develope a nuclear capacity, we have the chain reaction already at Lucas’s Heights, and plenty of uranium it’s not nice, but the only deterent that works, instead of acting like unsuspecting children playing with a seemingly soft tiger’s tail. Time to get real, and not worry about USA or China, where we have relationship’s of very different nature, to much time is wasted on balancing these two very different connections, nukes would give Australia total freedom, respect, and independence. Then we could devote more time to our own country, and create something special here. We really don’t need USA or China or anybody else to live a good life. We just need to know that nobody can f with us.
Cheers Thor
What is driving this casuistic approach to foreign affairs and particularly trade by Morrison? Is it his undoubted personal ties to the US and Trump fostered by his conservative values and religion? Is it a case of abiding by the US’s foreign affairs rules whatever the outcome for Australia?
And how much
a part does the ASPI play in this game? By its own definition, the partly tax
payer funded organisation, is supposed to be an independent, non-partisan think
tank producing expert advice for Australia’s strategic leaders. You would think
the ASPI would quietly offer advice furthering Australia’s cause and yet it
seems they have their own ideologically led agenda. ASPI “experts”,
like Vicky Xu obviously have a passionate hatred of anything Chinese. Mention
the word and up pops Xu’s vitriolic presence on the ABC.
Yes Australia
should question China’s human right abuses but in a measured, not hysterical,
way. This is a long-term game. Perhaps some understanding of China’s
“abuses” might help us tread more carefully. For instance, China’s
so-called sinicisation of religion should be viewed with some historical
understanding. In the 19th century an estimated 50 million Chinese died in wars
and rebellions, a result of religious invasion of China following defeat by the
West in the Opium Wars.
Unfortunately,
I have my doubts Morrison, a person of fervent and spontaneous
conservative action, will take time to think beyond what might win or lose some
votes.
Morrison’s
idea of diplomacy is patting kids heads at a political gatherings, downing a
beer with blokes in a pub or being seen a the footy draped in a side’s colours.
Australia’s
most important end-game? I doubt he has the understanding or knows the rules.
Further proof that Australian Foreign Affairs is not actually run by our ‘Security’ forced and not not left to competent foreign affairs specialists. We appear to be digging a hole and will soon be stepping in it. Beijing must be having a good laugh at our cultural and economic incompetence. Our treatment of whistleblowers and secret trials of same and our indifference to the Assange case and press freedom should actually lean to an alignment with the Beijing ways of dealing with issues – go figure.
There have been some really thoughtful articles on this issue in John Menadue’s blog in recent times, again this week and today. The contributors actually know what they are talking about and are not half-baked amateurs like Sheridan and Hartcher. If you’re not already a subscriber, get onto it.
The website is the voice of thought and reason amongst the hysteria of the mainstream press. Hamish McDonald’s article today is well-worth a read after all the other carry-on about the expulsions from China
Well, I don’t read Sheridan but when his thoughts reach escape velocity from the Murdoch tent it is usually because they are so appallingly stupid.
Hartcher though, I read his mostly drivel, just to see if the stopped clock got the time correct again. His realpolitik analysis is bovver boy, Biggles-like, facile bloviating.
It is very cool how I was saying we should not resort to petty thuggery as a matter of self respect, just yesterday morning, only to find out I’m months late and the government are literally petty thugs beyond any sort of hyperbole I could come up with. I hope the Author has an answer to their question yesterday: no, because we look like a bunch of paranoid slaves living under a police state. Great job, feds. Cold War 2 looking as stupid as the first.
Can’t wait for the worlds biggest prison to team up with the dudes that won’t let journalists into their offshore torture camps (housed in our little colonies) to free the Uyghurs or whatever.
What a joke country we are.