It takes a brave publication these days to claim an authoritative prediction for November’s US election.
The Economist has combined polling and demographic and economic data into a model developed with Columbia University political scientists Andrew Gelman and Merlin Hedemann.
And it’s currently predicting a landslide victory for Joe Biden.
The model is currently predicting 333 electoral college votes for Biden to Donald Trump’s 205.
As the site concedes, Hillary Clinton consistently outpolled Trump in 2016, before losing the electoral college and winning the popular vote by a much smaller margin than predicted.
The Economist thus argues that what the model produces of value is the “estimate of uncertainty around that prediction … if the model’s best guess is that Mr Biden will win 51.6327% of the vote, then there is probably a decent chance that he ends up between 51% and 52%, a very good chance he finishes between 49% and 54%, and virtually no chance that he secures less than 46% or more than 57%.”
Given polling’s awful record — across several countries — recently, this is a project well worth keeping an eye on.
What does it say about Americans that it might NOT be a walkover.
Just how much worse would you need to be to have less chance.
Excellent question. In a healthy polity someone like Trump would struggle to get 4% of the vote, not be somewhere over 40%.
The freedom to not vote has consequences.
But Aleksei Navalny only attracts 3% of the vote yet the west referS to him as opposition LEADER.
And strangely, here Labor is referred to as an Opposition.
We are so blessed.
Its called the silent opposition.
I remember the polls saying the same thing about Hilary Clinton at the last election. I also remember the same polls saying the same about Mike Dukakis when he ran against Reagan. Trump is certainly not a spent force and one not to be underestimated. As much as I would like it to be true, I wouldn’t rely too much on polls.
Trump is not going to surrender the Presidency, he will fight the result all the way. He has the philosophy that he is born to rule and no one will challenge that!
An electoral college tally of 333 ain’t no landslide: it’s a comfortable victory
Oh deary me, Charlie; we haven’t a clue have we? Take a look at the coverage by The Economist regarding Covid-19 since February. The magazine has changed its stripes three or four times; the latest is that the editors are becoming frantic over (1) the time that the infection has been in existence and (2) the (global) economic consequences given that there is no immediate relief; to say nothing of what Boris intends.
If that doesn’t suffice for doubt then take a look at what The Economist claimed last time or with any other forecast for that matter; the record is not impressive. As to the ‘modelling’ all polls, nowadays, contain correlated data and analysising correlated data is no easy exercise. The decisions that electors make (in modern times) are contingent upon other effects that CAN change direction or even reverse direction.
Trump has a firm 40%+ base; he needs to capture about about 4.5% of the undecided to become president which is just what occurred last time. Given non-voting for whatever reason Trump’s 2nd term is not out of the question. If you are not convinced, Charlie, take a look at the drivel (in hindsight) The Guardian printed four years ago. Frankly, Charlie, your article today is a “non-story” or a FUD story.