Queensland state elections have a long history of reverberating through national politics, foreshadowing defeats of federal Labor governments in 1974, 1995 and 2012 and establishing Pauline Hanson as something more than a local curiosity in 1998.
Now it falls to the state to be the first to hold an election in the age of COVID-19, the campaign for which officially began this week.
The Coalition’s determination that the result should deliver another blow to a Labor Party still grappling with last year’s unexpected federal loss has already contributed to the breakdown of the bipartisan spirit that prevailed for a time after the virus first emerged at the start of the year.
While Daniel Andrews’ government in Victoria has naturally copped the worst of it, the Morrison government has also been ratcheting up the rhetorical pressure on Annastacia Palaszczuk over border closures while giving her Liberal counterparts a notably easier time.
In contrast to the impregnable Mark McGowan in Western Australia, Palaszczuk’s predators have considered her government highly vulnerable since Labor’s disastrous federal result in Queensland last year.
While her government has only been in power for two three-year terms (Queensland will finally move to four-year terms with this election, the last state to do so), Labor’s dominance of state politics since 1989 has been punctuated by only two short-lived conservative governments, the most recent being Campbell Newman’s one-term crash-and-burn from 2012 to 2015.
This gives Palaszczuk’s administration the feel of a government older than its years, a point emphasised by scandals surrounding her former deputy Jackie Trad and chief of staff David Barbagallo, and a looming exodus of some of the government’s best ministerial talent.
Polls conducted in the first half of the year found the surge in personal approval enjoyed by all incumbent leaders had not translated into a poll lead for Labor, despite soft personal ratings for Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington.
More recently, the News Corp papers have publicised often dubious polling to proclaim that voters were “turning against Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s tough border stance”.
As such, The Courier-Mail may not have got what it bargained for last week when it commissioned YouGov to conduct a poll that ended up crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48.
The large sample of 2000 allowed for sub-samples big enough to provide credible regional breakdowns, which indicated little change from the 2017 result in Brisbane and regional Queensland and a slight swing to Labor on the Gold and Sunshine coasts.
The polls suggest the LNP has at least recovered votes lost to One Nation in 2017, but with little ultimate effect since most of them had been returning to the party as preferences.
Of perhaps greater consequence is Labor’s minor party problem, namely the pressure it is under from the Greens in two inner-city seats — a knife the LNP has turned by putting Labor last on its how-to-vote cards.
While a contentious move among the LNP membership, this tactic helps the Opposition promote the spectre of a Greens-dependent minority Labor government to voters in parts of central Queensland that recorded Adani-powered double-digit swings at the federal election.
Conversely, Labor has an opportunity to exploit links between the LNP party organisation and Clive Palmer, who will again field candidates under the banner of the United Australia Party.
While Palmer’s own electoral support is sure to be negligible, he clearly plans a repeat performance of his anti-Labor advertising campaign at the federal election, to the greatest extent that newly instituted campaign spending limits will allow.
Given the unpopularity of Palmer’s aggressive campaign for open borders, this looms as a double-edged sword for the LNP, whose decision to put Labor last can be characterised as a preference deal with Palmer.
As is usually the case when minor parties muddy the waters, both major party leaders swear they will not form government without a majority in their own right.
Amid a very murky picture overall, one thing that is clear is that events will make a liar out of one of them if the election indeed produces a hung parliament.
How about a prediction William? Which way do you think it will go?
There wouldn’t be a sheet of “who gives a crap” between Palaszczuk and The Freckle.
What sort of our children’s future is beholden to coal :- 10 daze ago Palaszczuk “proudly” announced the approval of another one, for Olive Downs (80 years and 15,000,000 tonnes of the “Scotty’s Favourite Stuff”)?
Oh for a Labor government reliant on Greens support…. to stop crashing over that far right shoulder of this road to nowhere.
And while it’s not a “state” (in the strict sense) – the August “NT Covid election” wasn’t comparable to a “state election” – when it comes to permutations?
Also – Goodness gracious me, don’t you worry about that – it wasn’t the Labor government (“on film”) channelling Scotty From Marketing, for weeks, advocating the opening of the state borders : then denying (“on film”) ever doing just that, a couple of weeks ago, as “Pea-whistle” Mander and The Freckle did.
Here is a prediction—Palaszczuk will win –
She has listened to the health experts and protected Queenslanders just like WA.
Victoria is slowly reducing its health burden after the Government management of slaughtering 800 of its citizens. NSW is pretending to be successful but it is is merely smouldering, and it will continue to smoulder and have continuing spot fires. That is why Queenslanders are confident and lead normal lives – holidaying within their State
LNP has internal fighting going on – the Brisbane head office tries to use the local members as slave labour – donate ,man the booths -but shut up we Brisbanites know what is best for you – so their branches apart from a few lack any enthusiasm. LNP president was an employee of Palmer until he was outed.
That is why Palmer is throwing money around so he can stand in the LNP marginal seats so his preferences will help the LNP. He is so popular that he could not find viable candidates so had to co-opt all his family to stand.They probably cannot find their way to their designated electorates without a GPS- so William is right his votes will be negligible but strategic. Palmer’s wife is standing the LNP seat who has the candidate who won the by- election by 300 votes because the LNP scrubbed the popular local candidate and the local branch dissolved – LNP parachuted in a candidate from Brisbane who is both incompetent still invisible. Labour has a strong local candidate.
The rest of the State is dotted by successful minor Parties who have replaced the LNP in their electorates.
This has been repeated throughout the State – and remember the Queensland LNP holds the record of the most defeated Liberal Party in Australia. It has only held Government for 5 years in the last 30 years- Newman’s government was so incompetent that even with a record majority was swept from power by a little lady called Palaszczuk.
We lucked in with Palzszczuk.
Calm, competent and committed to Queensland.
Yes, she has signed off on a couple of coal mines, which are going to be hung around the neck of Sussan Ley, the current federal environment minister because they will draw down water from the Artesian basin faster than it can refill.
Sussan Ley can either pull the water trigger and risk upsetting the locals now or not, and risk having the LNP lose those seats and a lot more in perpetuity once the Artesian Basin drops below the level of most people’s bores, forcing them to re-drill and go deeper, a risky and enormously expensive exercise or walk off their properties.
Adani can also pump the Souter River dry and drain the wetlands.
As the market for thermal coal is shrinking, Adani has no assets in Australia and so, the exercise could be something which will guarantee an anti- LNP sentiment in these supposedly safe LNP seats and marginal Labor seats in Townsville which will last for generations.
It is nice to see a state government focused on the future.
It is a pity that we have a federal government filled with lower middle managers unable to see past their own chances in the next election.
A stronger, more transparent coalition between Labour and an expanding Greens would be a good thing – federally as well as in QLD. There is an unaddressed global warming problem and a need for more progressive economic and social policies.The mushrooimng of covert LNP / pseudo independents dressed up as state’s rights champions/special interests reps etc aren’t helping (check out their voting records on environmental legislation if you aren’t convinced).
Labor’s Federal loss in 1974?? Don’t remember that!
There was a QLD state election in 1974. Whitlam was defeated in the 1975 election. The writer is correct to point to the fact that in these specific instances where QLD state elections preceding Federal election by 1 year, Labor either lost or did poorly in both. This thesis is seemingly valid. A precursor or curtain raiser perhaps. A bit laboured. One could also say that in NSW there is the opposite effect. Labor NSW Govts v Federal conservative ones and vice versa but the 2010s plus seem to have broken this mould. BTW it was really the ALP Left’s knifing of Deputy PM Lance Barnard in 1975 which generated the famous Bass by-election with Labor suffering a swing of 15% against it that saw the end of Whitlam and the internal knifing of Sneddon by the more experienced dominating Malcolm Fraser as Lib leader that put in places the structures for the end of Labor in 1974 which was more a consequence of State issues where JBP was able to achieve political superiority.