It’s been the biggest question of the week — will Gladys Berejiklian stay?
Three days have passed since the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) heard that the NSW premier had maintained a secret relationship with former MP Daryl Maguire, who is at the centre of a corruption investigation.
Since then, Berejiklian has survived two no-confidence motions in parliament, is adamant she’s done nothing wrong, and vows to soldier on.
Publicly, ministers are showing their support. But according to The Australian, some in the party are preparing for a quiet, bloodless handover, the kind where Berejiklian steps down to avoid being a “distraction”.
How long will it take for the discontent around Berejiklian’s relationship with Maguire bubble into politically-terminal distraction territory?
History provides us with a little guidance on what could happen next.
NSW ICAC has scalped two premiers. Most recently, Barry O’Farrell resigned literally within minutes of ICAC revealing a hand-written note thanking an Australian Water Holdings executive for giving him a $3000 bottle of Grange he’d denied receiving the day before.
O’Farrell called it a “massive memory fail” and hurried out the door, even though the commission would later clear him of corrupt conduct.
Nick Greiner, the premier who created ICAC, took slightly longer.
On June 19, 1992, the commission found he’d acted “contrary to known and recognised standards of honesty and integrity” by appointing a former Liberal MP to an executive spot on the Environmental Protection Agency.
Greiner tried to fight it out, lodging a court case which he later won, but was forced out by June 24, under pressure from crossbench MPs propping up his minority government.
More recently, Queensland deputy premier Jackie Trad stepped aside from ministerial duties the day after the state’s Crime and Corruption Commission began investigating her allegedly dodgy appointment of a new school principal. Trad has now been cleared, but her future remains unclear.
As these examples show, how long a politician can withstand the heat really depends on specifics of each situation — third-party pressure (in Greiner’s case), factional alliances and public perception, Australian National University political historian Frank Bongiorno said.
For Berejiklian, the delicate balance of factional interests and warring egos which have simmered beneath her otherwise stable leadership could prove costly.
“I would’ve thought what’s critical in her case is she’s a moderate who’s clearly clashed with the Nats and the right over a number of issues,” Bongiorno said.
“Like abortion and koalas, there’s been a range of challenges to her authority which could make her position vulnerable.”
But there’s also a sense that the bar has been raised for what constitutes career-ending behaviour. In the Howard government’s first term, seven ministers quit over ministerial impropriety, owing in part to a tougher ministerial code of conduct which was subsequently watered down.
Now, senior politicians seem able to withstand anything without becoming a “distraction” to the party — see Angus Taylor’s long rapsheet. When Bridget McKenzie resigned from cabinet over sports rorts, it took nearly a month, reflecting a trend toward slower political demises.
“It’s common for the government to keep them for a little bit and give the impression that they’ve been removed at the instigation of the prime minister rather than at the instigation of the media,” Bongiorno said.
We’re now in day four of Berejiklian’s ICAC news cycle. And even with some past precedent, we’re no clearer about if and when she’ll go.
“When Bridget McKenzie resigned from cabinet over sports rorts…”
No she did not. Morrison and McKenzie took great care to make sure there is still no admission from them that anything was untoward about the sports rorts. McKenzie graciously stepped down only because she forgot to declare a gift. That’s all. She’ll be back soon enough.
Voters appear to reward corrupt politicians. Federally we had the chance to purge the country of a corrupt, lazy and self-centred government in 2019. How good is it to govern for six years, fight among yourselves, knife your leaders while bungling the economic management of the country and you get re-elected? Why would you do anything different?
Yes, voters do that. I have a nasty suspicion that the prevalent belief that all politicians are lying self-serving bastards makes it inevitable. When a voter who thinks that way finds a politician who is, so far as anyone can tell, conscientious, honest and dedicated to the public good, the natural reaction is deeply hostile: “How dare this politician try to fool us so obviously, (s)he must think we’re idiots, what an insult…” Even worse, if the voter, although convinced the politician is bent, cannot get any hint of what exactly the rat is up to and it’s possible to imagine all the very worst things possible behind that squeeky-clean facade. So the voter prefers the plainly corrupt, because that’s more honest and you know what you’re dealing with, it’s the devil you know. Being genuinely honest puts almost insurmountable obstacles in the way of a political career for many reasons
I doubt if there is a line which delineates good or bad in politics. A contributer, recently, remarked on squandering public money regarding the University of Tasmania abetted by Shorten and the QLD Premier.
Various Parliamentary members of ALL parties have been done for DD, DV, driving and using cell phone – the list goes on; same for footballers if it is any consolidation.
Barry McGuire sang/prophesised “The Eve of Destruction”, brother Daryl is on “The Eve of Distraction”
Does it really matter whether Berejiklian stays or goes? She couldn’t or wouldn’t see shonky dealings going on around her. Otherwise she managed the daily duties of the job competently enough. If she goes will her party elect someone better? At least she stood up to Barilaro.
“Stood up to Barilaro” was a great distraction for the media, and the other feeble minded sods, from what was really going on involving her government making shameful changes to state environmental laws, placing more power into the hands of local councils, which are stacked by the nationals. Its almost as if two coincidences were “linked” but someone forgot to tell Barilaro (or they wanted him out of the way and this was a good way to knife him).
Then there’s also her selling out the environment to large scale gas mining with a backhanded agreement for millions of dollars of extra federal funding. This at the same time as wasting untold millions of dollars on stadiums and trams nobody wants to give the appearance of being being “progressive”.
Yes. Granted all that, no argument here. You know the detail better than I do, I have relatives and friends in Sydney but I’m from WA. But will her party elect someone better?
I’m from Victoria so have the same concerns you do around our premier. Interesting times to say the least.
I’d like to say ‘well what do you expected when you have to cut costs everywhere to show you’re good economic manager’ & ‘there’s no accountability for anyone these days and its like he took a page out of the federal libs playbook on obfuscation’ but that lets him off too easily. Alot of people are suffering and while he’s said he’s ultimetly responsible he wont actually come clean and let everyone to move on.