Last week former Victorian cabinet member and accused branch stacker Adem Somyurek claimed that Daniel Andrews wanted to be the Jacinda Ardern of Australia. He was wrong. Andrews’ roadmap is far stricter than anything seen in New Zealand. Or anywhere in the world for that matter.
It appears that Victoria’s stage four restrictions have been little more than a science experiment for a premier who has confused politics and science horribly, while completely ignoring livelihoods — as well as the views of most leading epidemiologists, mental health experts and even the World Health Organization.
Ever the skilled operator, Andrews has clearly picked up the growing tension in recent days, and after two months is preparing to junk the next step of his strict roadmap and quietly allow Victoria to move to the next “stage” on Sunday, which is likely to allow some outdoor activities as well as slightly larger family gatherings.
But while most of Victoria focusses on the next stage of the state’s slow grind towards normality, few have bothered to look to the final steps of Andrews’ inept roadmap, and how willing he has been to sacrifice Victorian small businesses to cling to his own job.
Andrews is acutely aware that a third wave, after the destruction caused by Victoria’s six-month lockdown, would see him follow his department head and health minister out the door.
Consider this: restaurants and pubs aren’t allowed any indoor dining until Victoria’s “last step” is reached. Most restaurants aren’t able to operate profitably (many aren’t able to open at all) unless they can serve customers indoors. To get to that step, Victoria needs to record zero cases for 14 days.
That’s not zero mystery or “community transmission” cases — that’s no cases at all, included cases linked to existing known clusters.
Victoria was able to virtually eliminate the virus in May and June while allowing limited indoor dining, before the second wave was caused by Andrews’ hotel quarantine disaster. NSW hasn’t come close to meeting this threshold.
Interestingly, while non-unionised small businesses have been crippled, parts of the heavily-unionised construction sector have been able to operate throughout the lockdown period. Victoria’s Metro Tunnel project operated largely without break during the pandemic despite workers testing positive, while residential construction, with workers moving between sites, was able to continue mostly unabated.
But while even high-risk meatworks stayed almost fully operational, many businesses can’t open at all, potentially until well into 2021 when “COVID normal” is reached (the stage after the “last stage”).
Accommodation services can’t open, outdoor entertainment like zoos and amusement parks largely can’t open, museums are heavily restricted and office workers must work from home. In fact, offices can’t reopen even with COVID-safe plans until there are no new cases for 28 days. A feat which few regions in the world have achieved.
Leaders have a difficult balancing act between the public health of the relatively small number of people very susceptible to the virus (those aged over 70 with pre-existing conditions) and everyone else.
But instead of trying to manage health and livelihoods, Andrews sticks to an unachievable roadmap and continues to try to scare Victorians into submission — once again warning Victoria of the risks of hospitals “being overrun” if the lockdown is eased.
Andrews’ hyperbolic commentary, coupled with an unachievable roadmap, has been far more of a failure than even the quarantine disaster.
The data is crystal clear (if anyone bothered to look): Andrews’ strict stage four measures were not needed in the first place.
Victoria completely moved from stage three to stage four restrictions on August 6 (some measures, likely the curfew which experts later conceded had no health benefits, were enacted earlier on August 2). Andrews and his chief medical officer Brett Sutton repeatedly stated that it takes around 14 days for a change in restrictions to have an effect.
Based on Andrew and Sutton’s own claims, for stage four to have been critical, cases would have reached their zenith just after August 20 and hospitalisations peaked around 10 days after that.
However, COVID-related ICU admissions peaked at 48 people on August 10, which shows the burden on hospitals was easing before the strict restrictions could have an effect. Similarly, Victorian daily infections peaked on August 5, before stage four restrictions were even fully enacted.
Meanwhile, Victoria has surge capacity of more than of 1440 ICU beds, although Crikey has been told that is a very conservative estimate — even accounting for non-COVID patients, the deadly second wave didn’t even fill a third of Victoria’s surge capacity.
Back in July, modelling from the pro-lockdown Grattan Institute noted that “it would take between 4000 and 7700 daily new infections over 10 days for this capacity to be reached”. Victoria’s rolling seven day average peaked at 496 daily cases in early August (before stage four).
Andrews’ claim that Victoria’s health system was at risk were either the words of a liar or someone utterly incompetent.
The Victorian government’s restrictions are destroying lives and businesses. Every day they continue represents prolonged governmental failure.
Adam Schwab is a commentator, business director, and the co-founder of LuxuryEscapes.com. He is also the author of Pigs at the Trough: Lessons from Australia’s Decade of Corporate Greed.
I subscribe to Crikey for informed reporting and analysis from its professional staff and for specialist expertise from regular/occasional contributors. Am I alone in thinking that this contributor fits neither category? I am not interested in strongly-held views (especially those of a vested interest nature) which are no more than that.
in other words – if it is not left it has no heft
No. This issue is apolitical and far beyond party politics. It’s the survival of life blood Victoria and those who love one another and hate the faux pas of a govt laced with a hidden agenda ineptitude. Jesus is still weeping.
The valley might well be deep, but!
More of a narrow crevice, a defile in other words.
Really, really clever.
No – what it means is that some of us don’t subscribe to Crikey for this sort of biased and non-evidence based codswallop.
You’re not alone, I also was cringing while reading this article. Vested interests all over this.
Yes opinion pieces should be allowed a voice, but should it be at the expense of science? TWiV, (This Week in Virology) on YouTube or podcast, is science knowledge shared with other experts in the field.
Do we really want to end up like USA or UK?
Why isn’t mask wearing being considered?
“TWiV, (This Week in Virology)”
Another main-stream device of exaggeration.
“Why isn’t mask wearing being considered?’
Been to Melbourne lately?
Many here have joked that soon it will end up like the Conservation, denying a voice to climate denialism.
After all this site has no hestitation in censoring or simply prohibitting the expression of any views it chooses.
That these 838 Word of Mass Distortion are not just published but probably paid a substantial fee.
After all, Schwab has to eat somehow until his Luxury Escapes resume.
Does he have any of his own to eat?
Obviously a prolix abundance but lacking entirely in fibre, nutrition, minerals or vitamins.
Just bulk filler.
Agree, this is more like an Advertorial than an article. Such biased writing and by someone in the travel industry – not even a health professional or economist
There’s a certain grim irony in the fact that Crikey has spent a lot of this year going hard on conflicts of interest while carefully ignoring that the fact that this frequent contributor is clearly writing for them in contradiction of his own conflict.
A.k.a. Click bait
Hello Loki, what a surprise to see you here of all places.
Another totally unedifying piece of rubbish from Schwab. These are just straw man arguments to push his own biased agenda. I want to live again some time mate and a lot of us are prepared for the long sacrifice involved in getting the chance to do so. Are you? Doesn’t seem like it. It seems as if you want everybody else to do the sacrificing for you and that your idea living is making lots of money and taking a lot of flights. You’re a sad case.
Get rid of these communists! Victoria needs Donald Trump!
That comment is an example of your extremism that invokes harlequin Trump verses balance, equilibrium and logic. It will never work.
I very much doubt that Valley Deep knows what a “Marxist” is. I have done seen anything on this page that supports labelling any of the contributors as a “Marxist”. Perhaps some are, and there is no shame in that, but none of the contributions on this page offer any evidence for this. It would appear that this term is just being used as a swear-word here.. .
“a “Marxist”. Perhaps some are, and there is no shame in that”
If you don’t include “mass killing, democide, politicide, classicide, genocide, robbery, pillaging, raping, then yes marxism is a bonafide political system.
Depending on which site for fact checking:
Stalin deaths 40-50 million.
Mao deaths – 60 million
Yep, no shame in that.
And, the 25 -27 million the Soviets sacrificed to defeat Chamberlain’s and Winnie’s besties?
Everything to do with Totalitarianism but nothing do do with Marxism. Reagan could not make the distinction either. Try Bonaparte.
I got here late…………….
Harlequin?
Surely you jest
Or need to look up the meaning of the name/word –
“… light-hearted, nimble and astute, often acting with wit and resourcefulness, Harlequin inherits his physical agility and trickster qualities as well as his name, from a mischievous “imp” character in medieval passion plays.
He later develops into a prototype of the romantic hero.
Nope, sorry, doesn’t ring a bell.
You’re wrong. The majority of Victorians are still taking it seriously. And the rest of Australia, most of whom are grateful and appreciative of Victoria’s efforts to contain the virus and spare the rest of the country further suffering.
The level of your total insensitivity to people dying and suffering from Covid-19 is almost certainly psychopathic.
You’re obviously not a Victorian. Or, if you are, a Victorian worth disowning.
Andrews, Marxist?! Please.
I thought that the Right loved a good authoritarian Government
“H-locaust lock-downs and martial law are the domain of marxist govts”.
No. They are most typical of military juntas installed after coups carried out in the name of law and order. Almost universally at the right wing end of the spectrum. Get a grip. Do you even understand what martial law is?
Ok Mr Thornton. Lets do some rough sums historically. I am obviously aware of many right wing military coups/juntas and as shocking as they were can you even begin to calculate the murderous atrocities in comparison to those committed by Stalin,Trotsky or Mao and the rest of your marxist heroes? Do you even have a big enough calculator? Maybe it’s you who should get a grip.
VD these horrors didn’t just appear out of the blue….Trotsky and Mao were copying the governance system they had seen from their previous rulers …. Tsarist Russia had similar ways of doing business …. pogroms – secret police – forced exile and forced labor – forced starvation- Chinese Emperors – imperial secret police – forced exile and forced labor – massacres – forced starvation – slavery… naturally every new generation of despotic governance applies new ways of doing the same old things to keep in power … not true to say only Stalin and Mao applied these measures…
Piece of unsolicited advice, Milt – try not to argue with the pig ignorant – it’s a waste of your valuable time.
INCOMING!! FROM THE CIA!! (A few redactions, but hey…)
https://medium.com/@jeff_kaye/a-concealed-war-crime-u-s-anthrax-bombings-of-china-during-the-korean-war-14782ceb40a9
“A Concealed War Crime: U.S. Anthrax Bombings of China During the Korean War”
Lenin and Mao effected revolutions but (frequently overlooked) retained the services of the same interrogatories. Similarly for the ANC and others.
No. Stalin and Mao perfected the art of mass slaughter. Only a person of similar ilk would defend such evil tyrants.
Is there anyone on this site whom you have not called Marxist?
Not sure if you’d know a Marxist if he stood up in your Weeties.
No, sorry, I am sure….you wouldn’t.
I don’t think there’s been a columnist doing this much damage to their publication since Paul Sheehan. I doubt Adam Schwab will succeed at that level of malpractice (so far, he’s done little more than clearly grind an axe that the Crikey readership is mostly at odds with) but his sheer persistence and refusal to budge is becoming farcical.
Adam, you should perhaps check the numbers for Victoria at the end of the first wave. I could well be wrong but my failing memory tells me that Vic was last out of the first wave just because our numbers did not fall far enough. There was enormous pressure on Andrews to reopen, but he was reluctant and aware of the risks. Sure enough, our numbers shot up again. I think that’s why Andrews is reluctant to go even a day too soon. The state cannot take another lockdown. If the numbers escape again, it’s all over for Vic, not just Andrews.
Your memory of it approximates mine; Victoria was a little behind in getting its numbers down, and Andrews was being pressured by the Murdochracy, Costello-driven Nine, and the abject, irredeemable Victorian Liberal party. Recent events show how just one less-than-honest idiot in a truck can rapidly leave in his wake a couple of rural towns lining up all day for tests; no wonder Andrews is cautious. Fools like Schwab and the aforementioned zealots will only blame him if he breaks early and things spiral out of control again.
He probably recalls just how much support he received from those people urging the early opening up after numbers spiked.
The last few lines say it all – “destroying lives and businesses”. You can run all the clever calculations whatever way you want to get the message you want. However cast a quick eye over Europe where just a few months ago Governments heeded the call from the whinging tour operators to open up to save them all. NOT looking so clever now……
One has to feel for the northern continentals as they head into their long,dismal winter, scuttling from one overheated,cramped interior to another for the net 4-6months.
What generation of covid will be cooked up in those factory farm conditions?
Free wheelin’ Holland has just entered Tertiary restrictions, NFD.