Antipodean election junkies are preparing for a double dose tomorrow as voters go to the polls in New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory. Elections here and abroad have given progressives little to cheer about in recent years, but New Zealand at least looks certain to change that.
If the polls are remotely accurate, the only question is whether Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government can achieve a majority in its own right, which no party has done since proportional representation was introduced in 1996, or if it needs outside support, which it should find readily to hand from the Greens.
A Labour win of one kind or another has looked beyond doubt since the onset of COVID-19 at the start of the year, in which time the conservative National Party opposition has gone through three leaders.
Despite the acclaim Ardern garnered internationally in the aftermath of the Christchurch mosque shooting last year, it is only in this time that her ascendancy has appeared beyond question.
Ardern’s rise to power after the 2017 election was not so much an electoral triumph — the incumbent National Party won ten more seats than Labour — as one of post-election horse-trading, with Labour forging a minority coalition with Winston Peters and his populist New Zealand First party.
Nor did the immediate pre-COVID polling suggest Ardern’s reelection to be a foregone conclusion, although the notion that she was headed for defeat, so beloved of News Corp Australia commentators, leaned heavily on a selective interpretation of one pollster (Colmar Brunton) while ignoring three others (YouGov, Reid Research and Roy Morgan).
Polls in the campaign period have had Labour in the high forties, which would leave it just short of a majority under a pure model of proportional representation.
However, the bar is slightly lower under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system, which locks out parties that fail to clear a 5% threshold or win one of 72 single-member constituency seats.
That seems likely to exclude New Zealand First, which has struggled to crack 3% throughout this year, unless Peters has succeeded in winning a legion of new fans with his viral takedown of a COVID-19 conspiracy theorist earlier this week.
Between New Zealand First and various minnows, around 7% looks likely to go to waste, in which case 47% would get the job done for Labour — which is more or less where the polls have them.
Back home, Andrew Barr is hoping to secure a sixth term for the ACT’s Labor government, which for all but one term has depended on support from the Greens or — to give a sense of the government’s longevity — the Australian Democrats.
By the normal rules of the electoral cycle, that should leave the Liberals well primed to ride the “it’s time” factor to power.
However, the local Liberal operation is blighted by a doctrinaire bent that is jarringly out of tune with Canberra’s liberal ethos — a case in point being Zed Seselja, a two-time Territory election loser who now holds the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat, and one of the prime movers behind Peter Dutton’s leadership insurgency in August 2018.
True to form, the Liberals have been led since 2016 by Alistair Coe, a young conservative opponent of same-sex marriage and abortion.
The ACT also has a proportional representation system, which divides the territory into five five-member districts.
The Liberals won three seats out of five only in the southern Canberra district of Brindabella in 2016, and must now do so in another two to lock out Labor and the Greens.
A favourable redistribution may help get the job done in the western suburbs district of Murrumbidgee, but it would take a formidable swing to get them over the line in any of the other three.
However, a path to minority government could emerge if Labor loses a seat in the northern suburbs district of Ginninderra to Bill Stefaniak, a former Liberal leader now running under the banner of the Belco Party, which presents as locally oriented and ideologically neutral.
If both these stars align, the ACT parliament could finally become something more for the Liberals than a training ground for future senators.
.. if Labor loses a seat in the northern suburbs district of Ginninderra to Bill Stefaniak, a former Liberal leader now running under the banner of the Belco Party, which presents as locally oriented and ideologically neutral.
I live in Ginninderra and every person I have spoken to about this has rolled their eyes and referred to the Belco Party candidates as old, stale, white, male Lib-lite.
The nature of ACT elections means that sitting members of any party have more to fear from other candidates from their own party in each electorate than from voters swapping party.
At the last federal election the Put ZED Last campaign was very popular and his vote did fall.
There are many with longer than average memories in the ACT. No one has forgotten that Bill Stefaniak is a disgruntled liberal, nor that he has a chequered past. Bill is likely to split the Liberal vote, rather than have any impact on the ALP vote. There has been a very good, grass roots campaign from the Greens in the southern seat and the third Liberal has made some notable gaffes during this campaign, including ‘casual’ homophobic comments which also patronised and insulted the electorate. Looking forward to watching the count tomorrow!
I agree. Canberrans are pretty much engaged with political processes and many will remember Stefaniak as a person not to vote for.
My comment is “Awaiting for (sic) approval” and has been for a day. Friday must have been the Crikey RDO. In the interests of having my voice heard, here it is again.
“Oh, and the ACT Libs looking likely”
And where TF did you get that headline? Nothing in the story supports that egregious statement. Unless you consider a majority in one of five districts being extended by majorities in two more districts (to ‘lock out Labor and the Greens’ you know) is actually possible. Unless it’s incomplete, and you meant to say “Oh, and the ACT Libs looking likely to lose – again”
Agree re the header & accompanying text – non sequitur but that is the nature of psephology, on the one hand, on tuther and let me just gut this chook to check the latest.
So, Labor home on their own in NZ, and Labor home in ACT, with the greens showing an improved vote.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if this marked the beginning of the end of the neoliberal crazy experiment. Sure, that’s a crazy long bow to draw, but I’m nothing if not a dreamer. Surely COVID could bring about some useful change, waking up the dear citizens from their slumber.
To complete that sweet dreaming, Trump loses biggly and Bozo in UK is dumped by his backbench.
“Oh, and the ACT Libs looking likely”
And where TF did you get that headline? Nothing in the story supports that egregious statement. Unless you consider a majority in one of five districts being extended by majorities in two more districts (to ‘lock out Labor and the Greens’ you know) is actually possible. Unless it’s incomplete, and you meant to say “Oh, and the ACT Libs looking likely to lose – again”