Annastacia Palaszczuk’s historic return to power in Queensland on the weekend holds a six-pack of lessons for Scott Morrison — and how he deals with these will almost certainly determine his fortunes.
Incumbency is favoured in a crisis
The pandemic proved this to be true for Queensland Labor, but it’s all in the timing. As the crisis passes, voters look to how government responded. Why wasn’t it forecast? How was money being wasted? Why weren’t insurers accepting claims? Has the economy rebounded?
Former Queensland premier Anna Bligh knows just how important timing is. She was wildly popular during the state’s 2011 floods, but was tossed out soon after. Scott Morrison needs to have a post-pandemic plan that takes voters with him.
Pre-polling is the new black
Polling booths were deserted on Saturday; lone sausage sizzles begged for customers. This is because more than 2 million Queenslanders voted early or lodged their vote by post. That changes the nature of any campaign: it only runs until people’s votes are lodged.
This helped Labor enormously because of its strong first week on the campaign. Later analysis will probably also show pre-polling highest among older voters. Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese both need to take note of that, and mould their campaigns accordingly.
Last-minute campaigning and leaders’ debates might be much less significant going forward.
You have to own your wins
Morrison, who visited Queensland during the campaign, failed to capitalise on JobKeeper. There are some voters who believe that this has been gifted by state Labor.
The reason many still have jobs is because of the federal government’s jobs’ assistance packages, yet Morrison — the marketer — failed to sell that on the hustings with state leader Deb Frecklington. That proved costly, particularly in the regions.
Everything is in flux
Up to one quarter — maybe more — of votes are now up for grabs.
On Saturday, One Nation voters went home with Labor. Clive Palmer’s supporters went… somewhere away from his United Australia Party. The Greens are making inroads in Brisbane city, in the way they have in Melbourne and Sydney. Bob Katter’s party in North Queensland continues to have a stranglehold.
Where will those votes go federally? Even a small move away from Scott Morrison outside Brisbane could quickly flip fortunes. One Nation returned to Labor because of Labor’s strong border stance. Will that still be a factor when the federal poll is called?
Local media matters
The loss of local papers across Queensland communities has had significant impacts. But one of those, during the election, was the inability of non-incumbents to build profile — an issue highlighted by One Nation.
State MPs are closer to their community issues than those representing them in Canberra and naturally get more attention in the scant media available in Mackay and Rockhampton, Bundaberg and Gladstone, Gympie, Warwick and Ipswich, the Sunshine Coast and other places.
Both sitting federal MPs (mainly conservative) and their challengers will feel the impact of News Corp’s closure of dozens of newspapers.
Borders are still a major issue
Queenslanders continued their long tradition of gifting the treasury benches to one side at state level, and the other side federally. But Scott Morrison shouldn’t rely on that: while some people say it’s a deliberate move by voters, just as many say it’s coincidental.
The federal issue of borders won Annastacia Palaszczuk the state election. As her own father and seasoned political operator Henry Palaszczuk said: his daughter was rewarded for keeping people safe.
It will get harder from here, as borders open and kickstarting the economy becomes the focus. Annastacia Palaszczuk will have to deal with that inside Queensland. Scott Morrison would be foolish not to believe it also presents his biggest challenge.
Need I remind you, Madonna, that JobKeeper only exists because State Premiers DEMANDED it-along with the increase in JobSeeker. Even then the Feds managed to massively bungle its implementation. A fact I hope the public will be reminded of come the next election.
Also, the most recent news on JobKeeper was how it is being scaled back and then eliminated. JobSeeker too, finally paying something livable, and the most recent development in the middle of the campaign was Josh F announcing it would be going back to poverty levels. All this while many Qld’ers are unemployed due to Covid. Maybe Qld’ers have worked out what is going on.
Big issue for federal Labor is to see if Albo’s hard life story resonates. It may or may not, but certainly any fakes from Sydney or Melbourne aren’t going to convince them to vote for Labor. Shorten’s lack of authenticity killed him in Qld.
Let’s hope it’s a sign to get rid of the Federal Gov at the next election
Commiserations to Crikey’s resident Coalition PR hack.
Her puff piece and deal of the sympathy card (Oct 06) trying to lift Lauren Day’s profile didn’t work.
Nor did her “Morrison’s big trip north creates headaches for Labor ahead of state election” of the 14th?
As she wrote Tuesday “…. Most election campaigns disappoint voters, and this one is no exception…” :- I suspect her ‘disappointment’ would have been looking at a probable Labor victory. But hope springs eternal, and how happy she would have been (along with so many Limited News hacks including Insiders’ Dave Spivsy) to be wrong.
“…. News Corp’s closure of dozens of papers”?
What about the campaign waged by the Curry or Maul against Labor? That’s the sort of biased reporting this state “needs” from the rest of the stable? What’s to be missed?
….. And it didn’t work this time.
And again, in that “poor Jackie and Lauren” piece on Oct 6, did King mention the concerted use of position for a “Kill Jackie” hatchet job (“State political affairs editor Steve Wardill”?) that her old rag has been waging for years? The sort of sentiment that was nurturing/main-streaming/legitimising?
[“…. But former TV journalist and new LNP star Lauren Day has had a big impact inside the party, and LNP chiefs expect to count that seat in their tally on October 31.”?
Last election Wardill was so obsessed with white-anting Trad’s reputation that he missed next door Maiwar turning Green – this election was their chance to try to get it back – and it failed.]
I wonder how long Crikey contracted Ms. LNP for.
However long, it’s far too long for my liking
I won’t be a subscriber by then so, for me, it won’t matter. If I don’t see G Rundle with a piece on here, I barely bother to read it.
If I don’t see Rundle …
Same, Colin.
I reckon it’s as much to do with the editor’s choice of columnist – given his The Oz grounding.
I love how Bernard Keane says “it’s not about incumbancy” and on the same day you get this buffoon King to write an article where the first reason she blames for her team losing is that the other mob was in government.
Get rid of this parasite please, bring back the quality journalism.
I’m surprised that you didn’t mention honesty and ethics as elements of lessons. For all the faults of the Queensland ALP, and there are a few South Brisbane not withstanding, the LNP didn’t appear to offer anything more open, honest or ethical and in these times they might just matter. Those are all qualities that Mr Morrison has repeatedly demonstrated either a lack of or a lack of understanding of what they mean in practice or more correctly what the absence of them means.
In the LNP lexicon, dishonesty is a valuable ethic, much admired and cultivated.