[Donald Trump’s] chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight
Albert Hammond, ‘It never rains in southern California’, 1972
It never rains in California/but girl dont they warn ya/it pours, man it pours
Well, um, eh, errrrr, uh… as US election night wends to its close, the election is on a knife edge, but in my opinion is trending towards the re-election of President Donald Trump for a second term.
Though the map is looking good for the Democrats, it always does, with their 200 or so automatic electoral college votes. What looks terrible is, well, everything else. The hope of a Democrat landslide in the popular vote is gone; whoever actually wins this is going to do it by a couple of states. Joe Biden has come out to speak to some whacko car rally in Delaware, claiming they are on the road to victory. Trump gave a speech to raucous supporters and the press from the White House East Wing in which, as predicted, he claimed to have won the election, that it was being stolen, and portrayed late ballot counting, as voting.
So far, worryingly for the Democrats, nothing is changing hands at all. Fox had called Florida for Trump around midnight US time, and others will follow. Pennsylvania and the rust bucket states are trending towards Trump. North Carolina is on a knife edge. On a brighter note, Arizona is trending towards Biden, and so is — wait for it — the Nebraska second congressional district, centred on the hipster parts of Omaha.
With those, Biden would need both Wisconsin and Michigan if Pennsylvania and North Carolina can’t be won. By my reckoning, that would have Biden win right on 270 votes. Falling short by anything at all gives it to Trump on a knife edge.
But of course this is a new type of election, one in which early and mail-in votes are vastly beyond anything known before, and every state handles these differently. However, Pennsylvania streams them in on election day, and of the swing states only Wisconsin and Michigan have a significant lag.
It is going to take a significant swing in those states to reverse the trend. The developing picture from the frenetic infobabble being spruiked by the US network coverage (and the delicious incomprehension of the Australian anchors) is that the Biden campaign has failed to make inroads into key groups they thought they might win such as suburban white women, who appear to have switched over but only by 5% to 7% in states like Ohio, falling far short of the target.
In general, it would appear, as your correspondent has speculated, that the Biden campaign hasn’t been able to put together and supercharge the grand progressive coalition sufficient to defeat the shift of the white working class to the Republicans, and especially to split off non-college white women from Trump.
It may turn out that Biden’s comment in the second debate about transitioning away from oil may have been the kiss of the whip for his campaign — and that both the deeper pitch and the candidate were incapable of staging that deeper shift.
That would be something the Democrats would have to have a war over. Trouble is, its factions will have completely different answers about what went wrong — for even if this were a victory for them, it most certainly wasn’t.
If this is the best the US can do it has zero chance in keeping up with China.
Of course they can. They can ban technology they can not compete with (Huawei 5G) or they can force the sale of foreign companies they can not compete with (TikTok). There are many ways to keep up
Help! Is there a watching the US election unfold support group out there?!
Not many comments Here (or on any of these articles)……i wonder where everyone has gone ?
To the bunkers? 🙂
Such has been the case for this week. Anyone can chunder but in times as these non-germane comments appear even more idiotic.
Oh get nicked Erasmus, you’re not the only one allowed to comment on Crikey you know. Don’t a) bother reading or b) bother commentating on comments that you clearly think are beneath you and/or this forum!
Oh, personalities “don’t enter into it” (plagiarising the ‘parrot sketch’). By all means provide an alternative explanation for the articles drawing less than a score of comments.
I would be (genuinely) be interested in your opinion. I don’t want to pay a dollar per week for nothing.
Personally I didn’t comment because it took until waking up way too early (1am!) and being really bored to open this email. Maybe I’m weird because I have spent more time typing this out than watching the results.
Well to give my 50c worth frankly it is difficult to see rhyme or reason in why some articles attract a swell of comments and others fall by the wayside with barely a whimper. Clearly some hit a nerve and spark a flurry such as Mr Schwab’s recent contributions, well until everyone got tired of them/it and also when GRundle lets rip with a heartfelt piece it seems to stir up the crowds and when BK hits his mark (without too much praise of NSW Libs). Who can really say, they are a fickle bunch. Perhaps DB (below) has supplied the remainder of your dollar for this week!
Consider Schwab. Very few critiqued his methodology (if that is the word) but many displayed their ‘responses’ to the (or his) ‘stimulus’. As to Rundle : agreed! Perhpas the subscription base is highly correlated with sections of the electorate.
It has been good week – irrespective of the Presidenial result.
You know I think I can safely say not all of us are here to critique “methodology”, correct references or point out metaphors described as analogies etc. Its been an interesting week though!
Almost into catonic shock, me.
But not, alas, in the least surprised.
…as well as “…catatonic shock..”.
Hey Barabbas (one of my favourite biblical characters), some of us have lives, plus the State of Origin is on, and Crikey is hardly the epi-centre of cultural commentary. Mostly I’m just here with my popcorn, taking the cultural temperature.
It get worse ….
Should Trump win, as now seems distinctly possible, against supposedly “impossible odds” stacked against him, the rapidly expanding legions of End of Worlders will hail it ‘divine intervention’ – an act of God verifying not only Trump’s status as the promised Messiah (in addition to Swamp-Draining/Pizza-Lover-Busting/Hilary-Jailing commander in chief, and certified Reclaimer and Restorer of American Greatness + Esteemed Faithful Servant of Israel, + Pussy Grabbing / Very Large Handed stud) but also the demonstrably infallible, and now verifiably certified proof of the prophecies, teachings and illustrious insights espoused by, and devoutly followed by the clearly insightful, enlightened god-chosen (‘we-were-right-you’re-all-wrong-and-now-you’re-all-going-to-turn-in-hell-for-eternity-while-we-enjoy-1000-years-of-paradise) followers of the the one and only True Church (incert appropriate evangelical cult here).
So that’s something to look forward to.
Well, another thing to look forward to really, because I for one am quietly chuffed at thought of another four years of fun-filled mayhem the re-election of Trump promises to unleash.
The impending US Civil War 2.0 will be worth the price of the guilt-ridden conscience I’m certain to pay alone. My money’s on the Deplorables taking an early lead before the CIA-backed liberals storm home to bloody glory.
Action aplenty, oh yes indeedy.
.
Taking a few steps back from the anthropology, Chris, we know that the respective parties have dredged their candidates (that are all but identical) from the lowest common multiple of propertied American society.
There is no risk of a civil war because there is no conflict because there is no contrast.
Although the electorate rates foreign policy at 1% of voter interest for the large end of town it is the only consideration because about 73% of the domestic budget is non-discretionary.
The fat cats are in fundamental agreement as to making ‘merica great again’ and, ipso facto, the zero sum game that Trump has adopted. There are alternatives but they are being ignored.
Their participation notwithstanding the electors are (at best) only holding the tail.
“Anthropology”?
Chris’ exegesis read more like eschatology of the end days.
I took Chris to be referring to a land, not unlike Lilliput, south of Canada. It was Swift that constructed the satire or am I overthinking it.
Don’t be mislead into thinking that CIA et al are liberals.
Their only interest is power, the system is secondary.
We’re there actual policy pronouncements made to the voters in the USA or is it the 3-word slogan and TV presentation that matter? Or a fight between the media?
Oh the days of public policy/public education are over..Even the fictions of reality tv news infotainment have lost their selling power…The customer clients are getting bored with the commodity of neo-liberal democracy
The astonishing turnout is the big story for me, with the total still climbing, 18+M more than 2016.
Trump has 8+M more and Biden 9+M more than HRC – so far, with millions still uncounted – yet one thing is clear; Trump has garnered more blacks, hispanics and (non college educated) white women than four years ago.
(No analysis yet of that mystery cohort from 2016, allegedly college educated white women of whom he had 52%!)
WTF? is insufficient and raises the old question “Why ARE amerikans?”.The usual answer, “somebody has to be” is unconvincing.
Even if Biden becomes President (of Epirus?) he seems to have lost the country .