Certainly no one could accuse the Morrison government and its battalion of health advisers of being fast learners.
Despite the obvious warnings from the Auckland, Adelaide and Melbourne quarantine outbreaks, the federal government seems to have spent the last few weeks completing a COVID-19 victory lap — a celebration that, in light of the situation in Sydney’s northern beaches — appears to have been somewhat premature.
As we’ve said since mid-March, other than a vaccine (which the Australian government appears to be ambling towards three months slower than other developed countries), the fastest route to normality is the widespread deployment of rapid testing.
As such, it should have been a moment of immense pride when Brisbane-based diagnostics company Ellume announced on Wednesday that it had received emergency authorisation from US authorities for a rapid, in-home COVID-19 test.
US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Stephen Hahn lauded the Australian breakthrough, noting that “by authorising a test for over-the-counter use, the FDA allows it to be sold in places like drug stores, where a patient can buy it, swab their nose, run the test and find out their results in as little as 20 minutes”.
Surely such a powerful tool in fighting COVID-19 and ensuring the economy remains on track would no doubt be embraced by our free-market, business-first Liberal government, right?
Not so much.
Instead of adopting the new technology, which has a 96% success rate, acting chief health officer Paul Kelly earlier this week dismissed suggestions of approving the test, noting that Australia would continue to only use the “gold standard” PCR test.
Gold standard in accuracy perhaps, but certainly not in usefulness, given many people simply refuse to get a test because they take too long, or don’t isolate while waiting for results.
It’s quite likely the Sydney outbreak, which is threatening to shut down half of Australia just before Christmas, could have been avoided if rapid tests were readily available.
Scotty from Marketing was even less bothered than his chief health officer, reverting to type and opting for xenophobia rather than a technological solution.
When questioned on Ellume’s technology, Morrison noted that “the reason we have done so well is we have been so careful around our borders, and so we will work through those issues”.
Adam you really are the master of superficial analysis.
The testing method you are touting as a viable alternative to border closures is entirely novel (ie utterly unproven) and has been found to be 96% effective based on 1 study of a grand total of 196 people.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/15/2145612/0/en/FDA-Authorizes-Ellume-COVID-19-Home-Test-as-First-Over-the-Counter-Fully-At-Home-Diagnostic-Test.html
Why did the US FDA approve it?
A: Because they have an out of control pandemic on their hands and are utterly desperate for ANYTHING that may help.
Odds are this test will (as they scale up manufacturing and usage) end up being far far far less accurate than 96% in the real world.
The US FDA would suspect this will be the case- but for them at the moment- a rapid test that only works half the time is better than no test.
As for our situation- it would be a massive mistake to make our virus containment systems dependent on a completely unproven technology- just so you can start selling luxury escapes again.
Today Crikey’s paying subscribers are treated to not one but TWO Adam Schwab articles: one about a young rich list likely no subscriber is on, and the other, Adam’s deeply-considered thoughts on Covid-19 health policy.
Yet sadly, he sanity-checked only one of these articles.
But perhaps he was rushed, so let me help:
1: Australia is not ‘ambling’ toward vaccination, but some jurisdictions are rushing. A seasonal flu vaccine can take four to six months to approve once its test data are ready. Successful Covid-19 vaccines are anticipated being approved in around three months in Australia, so that’s faster than usual. Meanwhile, the UK is suffering a national outbreak it doesn’t have the means to control, while in the US, ICU beds are groaning in one in three jurisdictions, its Covid-19 death toll is conservatively likely to overtake its WWII death-toll by end March, and a senior US regulator was recently threatened with dismissal for regulating carefully. That’s called rushing.
2: The value of a fast test is not in how fast and easy it is, but in how much it improves timely and accurate decision-making. This is a cost/benefit analysis where the benefits reside in having some information sooner while any costs reside in who is making the decisions, how competent they are, and how accurate and comprehensive is the information they have to work with. So we can’t argue qualitatively on this: we have to look at the data. Adam didn’t: his was an answer looking for evidence.
As I mentioned, Adam didn’t have time to sanity-check two articles; only one: the rich list.
Why?
Well, if it’s not more in the public interest, is it perhaps more in Adam’s?
Thanks Ruv,
One other aspect to the “ambling towards a vaccine” is that because we are not in an emergency situation like the UK and US, and while we will likely approve much much quicker than vaccines in normal times, that so called 3 month “amble” allows us to screen those countries for adverse effects and reactions et al, before we approve it here. That is actually a good thing for our population, even if it delays the return of international travel or live auctions* by an additional three months.
*My vested interest. Long term public health outcomes should take precedence, as much as I would like to be back on the rostrum.
Kevin_T wrote: that so called 3 month “amble” allows us to screen those countries for adverse effects and reactions et al,
Yes, Kevin, exactly. The regulator responsible for approvals is the Therapeutic Goods Agency, and this phase of regulation is called ‘post market surveillance’: it’s the part that confirms that the behaviour of the product conforms with what was expected from initial testing.
In the case of the new, successful Sars-Cov-2 vaccine candidates the biggest unknown is how long any immunity lasts. This hasn’t be tested (the testing was rushed), and can’t been accurately modeled so far as I know: it can only be observed.
A three month window behind (say) UK and USA means an additional three months’ notice of cases where previously-immunised patients are starting to present with infections. That’s an additional three months’ data and planning, an additional three months to discover whether symptomatic severity is reduced despite the infection, and whether more boosters or some other treatment are likely to be effective.
While the infection rates are under effective control there is no health down-side to letting more desperate countries provide additional information to tune Australia’s pandemic management policy, since they are going to do it anyway.
But there is of course a down-side to Adam’s business.
Where Donald Trump thinks that when he is angry, ‘people are angry’, Adam Schwab thinks that when he’s impatient to reopen his business, the health officers who’ve been doing their jobs thoroughly throughout, must be ignorant.
*Correction: Therapeutic Goods Administration
“It’s quite likely the Sydney outbreak, which is threatening to shut down half of Australia just before Christmas, could have been avoided if rapid tests were readily available.”
What data is this statement based on?
My question is in regards to N.S.W and the crisis there, is Gladys Alphabet going to hold daily confrences and if so is no Credibility Credlin going to attend ..maybe Gladys can send someone from ICAC as they seem ti spend a lot oftime investingating in N.S.W
Yes Ben, another non-sequitur from Adam on that one.
Just leaving this here.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/17/king-sweden-failed-covid-strategy-rare-royal-rebuke-lockdown-hospitals-cases
I thought of Adam Schwab when I saw that news this morning.
Pity the editorial staff didn’t.
Think that is.
Typical Smirko. The premiers thought they were doing so well because they’d closed their state borders, which Smirko railed against. He delayed closing the national borders, especially against many infected arrivals from the USA.