On June 8, 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a joint session of Congress. I was in the room as Modi, reflecting on the United States-India relationship, said “the constraints of the past are behind us and foundations of the future are firmly in place”. Also present — in fact, sitting right behind Modi — was then-vice president Joe Biden. In the years since, Biden has generally echoed Modi’s positive message.
When it comes to India, however, today’s Biden is at a critical juncture. In front of him, he has an opportunity to further build on Modi’s “foundations of the future” in the form of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. But if he caves to Democratic demands to sanction India for its purchase of a Russian defence system, he could also undermine all of these foundations. It’s imperative Biden use his presidential powers to defend the US-India relationship.
In March, the Biden administration brought leaders from the four Quadrilateral Security Dialogue countries — India, Japan, Australia, and the US — together for a summit on their shared priorities. The group, affectionately known as “the Quad”, was originally centred around combating the after-effects of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, and was later formalised in 2007. In recent years, however, its priorities have been crystalised by China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific. Biden alluded to this dynamic in an address to Quad leaders, stressing that “a free and open Indo-Pacific is essential to each of our futures”.
Building on momentum
The Biden administration’s early emphasis on the Quad is a welcome sign. Gatherings like the March summit — if followed by concrete actions — have the potential to build on the momentum of the past four years. Since 2017 — when the Quad restarted negotiations after years of lull — it has become one of the focal points of US strategy for countering China.
While Japan and Australia have, for the most part, been eager participants in the Quad, the same cannot be said of India; the world’s largest democracy has long been skeptical of aligning with others on the international stage. However, in recent years, there has been a nuanced shift in New Delhi towards what is now being referred to as “strategic autonomy”. This new posture seems to be an attempt at striking a balance between independence in decision-making and doing what’s necessary to protect India’s strategic assets.
As the only Quad country that shares a land border with China, India’s unique role within the group cannot be overstated. Unfortunately, this land border has also been the site of fighting. Indeed, India is the only Quad country that has lost members of its military in combat with China’s People’s Liberation Army since World War II.
The US relationship to India has fluctuated through the years. Though New Delhi’s apparent drift toward autocracy is concerning, only through diplomatic engagement can the US and India work to uphold democratic values and human rights throughout the Indo-Pacific opposite decidedly undemocratic adversaries like China. Thanks in part to the bipartisan leadership that followed Modi’s 2016 address to Congress, the US and India now have a deepening relationship on almost every front. This is increasingly evident in military sales.
A reliance on Moscow
Before the US began intensifying its relationship with India, India imported most of its arms from Russia. As a result, New Delhi still relies on Moscow to provide many of its military needs. However, as with other dimensions of India’s foreign policy, the Indian military has been moving closer to the West in recent years. India now participates in large, joint military exercises with the US. It has also significantly increased its purchases of US military equipment from a few million dollars in 2019 to $3.4 billion in 2020.
Despite these warming trends, the Democratic chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Senator Bob Menendez, recently called for India to be threatened with sanctions under Section 231 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) if it moves forward with a purchase of the Russian S-400 system. Section 231 imposes sanctions on entities that “operate for or on behalf of” Russian defence or intelligence sectors.
But sanctioning India would not deter its purchase of the S-400 system. In fact, if the Biden administration sanctioned India, it would undermine both the US relationship with India and the Quad’s ability to counter China collectively — weakening two strategic fronts at a critical time.
Given India’s historical skepticism of international cooperation and long-standing ties to Russia, any sanctions would be amplified and leveraged by those within India who remain trepidatious about deeper engagement with the West, such as the Non-Aligned Movement. Moreover, Russia could take advantage of the sanctions to reclaim its role as India’s military partner of choice. Paradoxically then, sanctioning New Delhi over its Russian-made defence system would actually prove to be a geostrategic victory for Moscow.
Call for flexibility
In April 2018, following the enactment of CAATSA, then-defense secretary James Mattis discussed a scenario wherein a close partner or ally, such as India, might purchase arms from Russia with now-chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee Jack Reed. In his testimony, Mattis asked Congress to consider providing a more “flexible [national security] waiver authority” for CAATSA. Otherwise, he said, “we prevent ourselves from acting in our own best interest and place an undue burden on our allies and partners”. In response to Mattis’s request, Congress granted the waiver authority as part of the John S McCain National Defense Authorization Act in August 2018. The president is the sole individual with the authority to invoke the waiver.
Now, with the Quad on the line — and an increasingly aggressive Beijing looking on — it is time for the Biden administration to make use of Mattis’s waiver authority, which received bipartisan support in Congress. This waiver should be used to help craft a thoughtful and nuanced US foreign policy that views the world as it is — through a realist lens rather than one of pure idealism.
By invoking the waiver authority and allowing India’s purchase of Russian weaponry, the Biden administration can make clear that China is the primary geostrategic threat to the US. As the US acknowledges that fact, the White House must then prioritise — in word and deed — relationships with those countries critical to meeting that threat head on. By doing so, all Quad countries will benefit.
“India is the only Quad country that has lost members of its military in combat with China’s People’s Liberation Army since World War II.”
Up to a point, since the People’s Volunteer Army, that fought in the Korean War against South Korea and its allies including the USA from 19 October 1950 until it withdrew 8 years later, was drawn from China’s People’s Liberation Army and was effectively the same organisation, re-badged to avoid starting a direct war between China and the USA.
Mao’s eldest son Mao Anying was one of those killed in Korea. One listing of Chinese casualties gives the following, presumably they also inflicted casualties.
“Chinese casualty figures from the Chinese perspective. Source: CenturyChina.com.
There is also the Sino-Soviet clashes of 1969 that resulted in deaths on both sides.
There is also the most recent FON by the US John Paul Jones in India’s EEZ a 180k’s West of the strategic Lakshadweep Islands without notification to the Indian authorities, the US then published details of the FON to the embarrassment of the Indian Government.
You would hope that any Foreign Policy contribution is better researched than this one. That’s independent of the political line you expect to read from FP, I have been receiving their open source email for a considerable time and rarely does it challenge current orthodoxy.
Todd Young should join ASPI – he has all the red-neck credentials!
Separately, when Albo is PM next year, maybe he can somehow upset Congress and have sanctions imposed on us – saving us from acquiring any more ‘Flying Turds” otherwise know as the F35.(35 years in the making that is!).
Ahrrh my gaud..!
Firstly, Modi has committed damn all on the recent border issues with the PRC (most statements have come from the Congress Party) and noting of note on the Quad with the possible exception of the change from “Look East to the “Act East Policy”.
That the PRC now occupies the oceans from Japan / Korea to the Middle East is a clear case of indifference to global issues by India; obsessed, as it is, by the domestic religious issues as perceived. It is not an exaggeration to claim that Modi intends to “cleanse” India for the Hindu only. Read the journals on Indian Politics.
It is clear that India’s interest in the Quad *is* associated with the Silk ‘n Belt but with a decent slice of the action India will, ultimately, agree on what is planned. We agree that shoving the finger into India’s nose will achieve nothing; as you say : the country has never been a strongly aligned country and the politics, as mentioned, has always been domestic. Forcing perceived political values and, by extension, cultural values could easily kill the party.
Alternatively, let’s apply the ‘noddy’ reaction. The result will be a closer alignment with BRICS AND a ticket to the Eurasian Economic Union which does have a clear integration with the Silk ‘n Belt. With a few more members (not many) the entire bloc will be larger than the USA + EU in terms of GDP and population.
The USA needs to come to heal in terms of recognising a fundamental change in power or authority relations in the Pacific. Pompeo visited Vietnam in the last days of Trump and walked away with nothing. THAT is the message to the USA from Asia : polite but non-committal. The “old days” have gone!
We agree only on the perimeter as it were Todd. The Quad has to take into account the diplomatic and economic relations, including the aid, to the eastern Pacific by the PRC. Slowly but surely the Islands are being won-over even if a few, overtly, recognise Taiwan.
The strength of the Quad and Five Eyes for that matter *is* the (at least to date) the disposition to independence and NOT acting as a bloc. Both organisations can be expected to end in tears should the USA attempt any hegemonic behaviour. Agreed, some in the State Dept would “like” some countries to take sides (the USA side of course) but the choice is no longer binary; frankly from the decline of the USSR. To be fair to you : it is not a small topic.
As to human rights : who is to cast the first stone? Surely not the USA, or Oz or … mmm. difficult.
What concerns the Indian elite is that their sons and daughters can continue to get visas to work, live and play in the Western World, primarily the English speaking. Indian business is interested in developing and leveraging the North/South corridor. Chalabar port is now actively being revitalised to link into Afghanistan and the Caspian Sea as a gateway to markets. If you read the outcome of the recent Heads of State Quad meeting it all came down to India’s vaccine production capabilities, presumably when push came to shove that was all India was prepared to give. The Quad is more mud than a rock to build on.
It seems that we are in fundamental agreement John.
The he proceedings are to be interpreted from the purpose of Obama’s (I’ll advised and ineffective) “Pivot to Asia”. Quite rightly, the yanks perceive themselves hanging onto a greased vine.
A yankee argument that it is also “our” problem may have worked 50 years ago but not now; the current front bench and Shorten +Albo excepted.
However, the C-19 stuff is a red herring for the Quad. For some years Oz and NZ have obtained the majority of pharmaceuticals and medical protection items from the PRC so a vaccine from Russia or the PRC will be business as usual (although news for some of the electorate). Yup: another wicket falls against the yanks but no big deal!
As for India the situation is pure Malthusian. The rate of population increase will necessitate a diminishing per capita income as a matter of arithmetic. The 2020 HDI ranking (nothing is perfect) for India is 131 with 133 for Bangladesh with 121 for Iraq and 116 for Egypt.
We haven’t scratched the surface.
India’s pharmaceutical success is also dependent on raw material supply from China which is then processed and marketed as a value added Made in India.
Malthusian indeed and that’s without prospects for future water supply. Currently Glacial melt is actually providing excess water to the Indus and Ganges. Iraq and Egypt similar but for different reasons.
Every now and then there is an article in Crikey that I scratch my head and think this is better suited to News Ltd. This article provoked those thoughts. The need to ally with India under a government that is hell bent on competing with China in its human rights abuse is beyond me. It is the same thinking that saw military dictatorships supported throughout the 50’s and 60’s as a bulwark to national liberation struggles. Then i checked on the author. Just another representative of the American industrial military complex. Why Crikey why?
“Todd Young is the senior U.S. senator from Indiana and a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.”
Reading his Wikipedia entry he is a classic Mid-West Republican in both his personal views and voting record.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Young
Both US and Australian forces fought against the PLA in Korea.
Not officially – see my earlier post
Officially, Oz was part of British contingent (and rightly so ) although it was a independent decision on the part of Oz/NZ
My point is not the part played by AU. My point is that officially the PLA did not fight in Korea. See my earlier post.
My smile was removed after the word “so”.