The small polity of Tasmania has always been a knot of contradictions. A week out from the state election, in which the Liberal Party are seeking a third consecutive term for the first time in the state’s history, this holds.
Both Premier Peter Gutwein and Labor leader Rebecca White have pledged they will not lead a minority government. But for several reasons, this may well be the reality one of them faces after May 1.
There’s Tasmania’s Hare-Clark voting system — which divides the state into five electoral divisions that each return five members through proportional representation and is primarily good for generating a “confused? Let me explain” style explainer every few years.
This plus a small parliament means that the difference between a “landslide” — winning three out of the five seats in each of the five electorates — and losing your majority is only three seats. As William Bowe pointed out, the Libs received 51% of the statewide vote in 2018 and still just scraped to a majority. And a lot has changed since then.
Will Hodgman, the first man to necessitate the phrase “genuinely popular Tasmanian Liberal premier” in the traditionally Labor-dominated state, retired from politics last year to go yuk it up in Singapore. He was replaced by Treasurer Peter Gutwein, last seen revealing a panther tattoo and looking at a Tupperware tub full of Chupa Chups like they owe him money while getting his AstraZeneca vaccine. Gutwein is generally regarded as having done an able job as treasurer and has had a great pandemic, but it remains to be seen what efffect the loss of Hodgman and his high personal vote will have.
Further, the reason for this early election was speaker Sue Hickey pulling a “you can’t fire me, I quit” after Gutwein told her she wouldn’t be endorsed at the next election. If Hickey, now running as an independent, wins, and the Libs don’t pick extra seats elsewhere, minority government is what will result. A fascinating postscript was Gutwein’s decision to publicly back Hickey when she alleged federal Senator Eric Abetz had made horrifying comments about alleged rape victim Brittany Higgins (which Abetz denies). The episode pointed to splits between hard-right and moderate factions in the Tasmanian Liberal Party; and the outcome of this election may well determine who comes out on top.
Labor, meanwhile, has been spooked by the 2018 experience, having abandoned their policy of taking poker machines out of pubs and clubs after a vicious campaign against them not only by the Libs but also by gambling and hospitality industry interests, who supplemented their advertising campaign by pouring staggering (by Tasmanian standards) amounts of money into the Liberal coffers. The power of Federal Group, which has a monopoly on Tasmania’s pokies, has made itself felt since the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the state established Australia’s first legal casino.
This in turn points to two other uniquely Tasmanian issues: their opaque donations laws, and the ability to maintain huge levels of influence in the state with relatively modest donations.
Accordingly, the ALP is attempting to make itself a small target, instead going after the Liberals for their record on service delivery in health and education.
In the vacuum left by significant policy debate, much of the campaign has been given over to more personal slights; White said she doesn’t know how Gutwein “sleeps at night”, while Liberal media releases stop millimetres short of calling Labor’s health spokesperson Dr Bastian Seidel a liar.
And not all of the acrimony has been between parties — there’ve been plenty of calls from inside the house. Apart from the Gutwein/Hickey/Abetz triangle, Labor candidate for Franklin Fabiano Cangelosi has criticised his own party’s stance on pokies and protest, while Labor candidate/party president Ben McGregor resigned after “inappropriate texts” sent years ago became public. McGregor claimed he’d been done over by rivals within the party, seeking to “pervert and weaponise the current justified public outrage at the treatment of women in this country for selfish, tawdry and political purposes”.
Over the next week Crikey will be Tasmania, watching how all these contradictions play out.
I think and hope the election will be a lot closer than some are suggesting or predicting. The decision by Gutwein to go 12 months earlier than necessary has been regarded by many as a deliberate and cynical tactic to avoid the fallout from the withdrawal of JobKeeper that will undoubtedly result in more unemployment and potential business closures.
Gutwein is also gambling on his ‘strong’ stance on Covid, but that was a comparatively easy position to take since Tassie is an island and was easy to isolate, and all he did really was follow the health advice, and front up to daily press conferences designed to inspire confidence he was in control. It worked to a large degree. But with Covid less of an issue, our crumbling health system, over-stretched and under-staffed hospitals, lack of public housing, and shameful homelessness stats are ever more evident. The government has done next to nothing to address these despite being in power for seven years.
Calling an early election was no snap decision given within hours of the announcement Liberal posters were rolling out across the state. It was well planned and deliberate. Gutwein had ensured the Liberals had ordered up big, denying other parties and independents the chance to get all their candidates pre-selected, and campaign materials up and out there for several days. He also ensured that first-time voters had barely two or three days to get themselves on the rolls by calling the election just before Easter.
The very recent release of Richard Flanagan’s book ‘Toxic’ exposing the shocking impacts of the farmed salmon industry is likely to make people think twice about voting Liberal, along with the continued logging of native forests, and moves to approve controversial developments in national parks. Controversial plans to silence those who dare to protest such decisions are also under fire.
So, Gutwein’s gamble may not play out the way he hoped and planned it would, and the result could well be minority government.
And at this point I will declare I’m a support candidate for the Tasmanian Greens in the seat of Bass
Yep. This election had been planned well in advance, as evidenced by the instantaneous appearance of Liberal signage on nearly every street in Tasmania – well in advance of other parties. The cost of this signage must be quite substantial, although that’s not a problem for the conservative, right-wing Liberal party as they are bankrolled by a family with a, Liberal-backed, monopoly on poker machines. The fact we (Tasmania) have the most opaque political donation laws in Australia makes such cosy relationships an ongoing cancer in our political system. As you say, Gutwein’s response to C-19 has been perfectly adequate, but in every other facet of leadership he has been as mediocre as any premier in the last 20 years.
Apart from the basically non-functioning health system in Tasmania I think there are two other issues which could influence the election –
!. The salmon industry and the enormous damage it is doing to our coast. Most people I speak to are very disturbed about the carte blanche this industry gets from the present government. It has become the new woodchip industry trying to destroy this beautiful island, and Richard Flanagan has just released a book about this.
2.There are well-grounded fears that the present government is willing to give in to the gun lobby and wea
ken our gun laws – pretty much at the same time as the 30th anniversary of the Port Arthur massacre.
For these reasons I think the votes for the Greens will increase, and neither the Libs or Labor will get a majority and we will have a minority government.
Thirdly, there two very strong independent candidates in the seat of Clarke – the former speaker Sue Hickey and a female local mayor who is very popular in her municipality. i hope they both win a seat.
Under the minister responsible, Guy Barnett, the environment in Tasmania has under attack by the Gutwein Liberal government big time – forestry, salmon industry, – the research by Richard Flanagan in his book “Toxic, the Rotting Underbelly of the Tasmanian Salmon Industry: shows this. Read it folks, if you haven’t already, and definitely read it if you eat farmed salmon from Tas.
I believe we should have proportional representation throughout the country. If 10% vote Green, there should be 10% Green seats in the lower house. Our system relied on horses to deliver the votes (of only men). Let’s move on and give every vote a value. Please. Or should I move to NZ?
It would have the extra benefit of abolishing preferences, which we all know are an abomination. At least I think we do.
I’m in Tassie, and my instinct says Gutwein will win, simply because he hasn’t done enough to lose. The Covid factor is hugely in his favour, and that’s a toughie to beat. I’m a Rebecca fan, and will be voting accordingly, with my fingers crossed, but with my hopes not high.
Interesting to see if the week brings up anything that might make a difference, but it would have to be something substantial, and it would have to be something damaging to Liberal, rather than just a positive to Labor imo.
As substantial as an 87 year old man with pneumonia being left waiting on a plastic chair for 9 hours, before getting treatment in a Launceston hospital?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/20/elderly-man-with-pneumonia-waited-nine-hours-on-chair-in-tasmanian-emergency-department
Sadly, I’m not surprised considering the state of aged care in this country, but still.
The Premier described this as “disappointing”. I would describe this as negligence and a blight on the state of Tassie’s health service.
Whether that’s damaging enough, I don’t know. But it’s not a very good look.
CJ, things like that have got to have some effect, you’d think….but then I look at the scandal ridden incompetence of the Morrison government, and he’s still leading the polls, if they can be believed.
After everything! It does my head in.
Sometimes I think the only way to motivate voters to change, is if they all get hurt in the wallet at the same time.
Perhaps on a state level, things like the hospital incident are given more weight…but if you could assign all these things emotional points, I still fear that economic concerns outweight social concerns by a great number. An economy that’s performing well, plus a successful Covid response, are probably worth more, in the mind of many voters, than a thousand hospital stuff-ups and tragedies – with the caveat that the voter hasn’t been personally affected by them.
maybe i’m being too pessimistic. I’ll still be casting my vote hoping for the best, regardless! 🙂
Don’t take too much heart from the PPM measure…it’s a loaded question really. People can’t say if Albo is a better PM, because he’s not the PM!
I do agree about the Covid response – that will play well with the electorate as there was both a health and economic response.
Good luck & happy voting!
And a week before there was the case of an elderly woman being left for over 5 hours in a chair before being attended to. Negligence on a shocking scale – Tasmanian hospital situation AND federal aged care, still with Tasmanian Richard Colbeck the incompetent age care minister. Bring on the independents – eg Ms Hickey in Hobart Craig Garland on the NW coast.
I’m watching with interest from Qld as an expat Tasmanian. The independents are an interesting mix this time. Especially the three in the electorate of Clarke. Looking forward to seeing the result next Saturday.