While the media focuses almost solely on the devastation caused by COVID-19 it’s easy to miss the good news. Here’s a summary:
Brazil doesn’t collapse
Less than two months ago, Brazil was the focus of the world. Officials were warning that “health systems were about to collapse”; one epidemiologist even claimed “Brazil is a threat to humanity”. The apparent causes were a failure to take adequate lockdown steps coupled with a “new variant [which] could be twice as transmittable as the original version”.
Fast-forward three months and, miraculously, Brazil’s health system didn’t collapse, and the mutant variant wasn’t that mutant. Daily cases have dropped by 21% and deaths have dropped 23%. Deaths dropping by more than cases is especially positive, indicating strong vaccine efficacy.
Even better news was the town of Serrana which vaccinated 98% of its population between February and April. Since then, infections are down 75% and not a single vaccinated person has died. Most Brazilians are expected to be immunised by the end of the year.
Vaccinations improving slowly
While Australia’s vaccination rate remains terribly slow and delivery to GPs ineptly slow, there are small signs of improvement. Numbers at Victoria’s vaccination hubs have increased to 10,000 daily doses compared with 5000 a day in New South Wales. AstraZeneca announced a few weeks ago that it had released more than 3.7 million doses, of which about 2 million should be finished testing in the coming weeks.
More Pfizer doses have started arriving as the United States comes closer to running out of people to vaccinate. And UK data indicates that AZ has been as effective or possibly even better than Pfizer at reducing hospitalisation (about 80%) and preventing infection (60-73%).
Israel news keeps getting better
The good news out of Israel isn’t exactly new. With 58% of the population vaccinated, daily cases have dropped from more than 8000 to only 32, and daily deaths have dropped from 62 to fewer than one a day. The continued reduction in infection and death continued well after Israel came out of lockdown more than two months ago, despite no children yet vaccinated and schools open. The best and most ignored news is that not only does the vaccine prevent death, it also almost certainly prevents a significant amount of transmission.
US through the worst by July
In late March, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr Rochelle Walensky warned of “impending doom” as cases edged up. Two weeks later the same organisation said the US would be through the worst of COVID-19 by July, and last week conceded that vaccinated people no longer needed to wear masks.
Walensky, who just weeks earlier had been predicting a fourth wave, noted that the US could see “an even faster decline if more people get vaccinated sooner”. Since January daily cases have dropped by 86% and deaths by 82%. New York and New Jersey announced that virtually all pandemic restrictions would be lifted this week.
Chile not so bad
The positivity of the UK and Israel had been dulled somewhat by Chile’s continued infection rate, despite 79 in every 100 people being vaccinated. But if you look more closely at the data, things are far better than they seem.
While admissions and deaths have increased since vaccinations began, they are concentrated in people aged under 60 (who largely haven’t been vaccinated). ICU admissions among those under 60 have increased four times since January, but have slumped for those over 60. Canada has seen a similar result with infections and deaths centred around younger, unvaccinated patients. The clear lesson is vaccines work — they just need time.
Europe (finally) comes good
The Europe vaccine rollout initially suffered similar ills to Australia, but the news has been a lot more positive recently. As of May 2, EU states had delivered 33 doses for every 100 people (the US is at 75 in every 100). Even better, The Wall Street Journal reported: “The EU is expecting to receive 400 million doses — including 250 million from vaccine leaders [Pfizer] compared with 107 million in the first quarter.” This week EU boss Ursula von der Leyen indicated that vaccinated travellers would be able to freely transit between the US and Europe by the northern summer, saying it was “time to revive tourist and for cross-border friendships to rekindle”.
Variants, pffft
Moderna reported recent preliminary data that indicating its booster shot “increased immune-system agents known as neutralising antibodies against two variants of concern, B.1.351 and P.1, which was first identified in Brazil”.
UK. Crushes. It.
The UK, which has mostly used AstraZeneca, is reporting almost Israel-like results, with daily cases down 96% since January and deaths down by 99% (1200 a day to only nine). Some credit tough lockdowns for the improvement, but cases and deaths have continued to drop aggressively even after schools returned in early March and many businesses reopened on April 12.
Why isn’t Adam’s status as a director (and potential/probable shareholder?) of the company that owns Crikey published along with his article?
I’ve asked this of the Crikey editorial team over a month ago and they never responded.
The omission on this seems to be a blatant contravention of crikey’s own code of conduct:
Shouldn’t the crikey readership be aware that the guy who runs crikey and pays its staff is being allowed to publish articles that clearly advance arguments that benefit his own personal business interests (luxury escapes)?
The other obvious thing that emerges about Adam is his atrocious misunderstanding of and hence, use of statistics. All that said I am amazed that he has been able to come around to agreeing that we need to get as many as possible vaccinated before we adopt his crazy open-borders plan.
weird, it used to be … I remember making a snide comment about it
It’s breathtaking, isn’t it?
Have a look at Stephen Mayne’s twitter feed. In the past he’s almost obsessively tweeted praise for Schwab’s Crikey articles, without ever … ever … mentioning articles by any other writer for Crikey.
And Schwab has suddenly become fixated on pumping out endless articles about how covid isn’t so bad, isn’t so serious, we should open up borders etc. And he’s so flexible with his reasoning. The world is taking the steps he has strenuously argued against for over a year, and yet he now has the temerity to write an article about how the crisis is, somehow, ‘not so bad’.
Unbelievable.
As editor, Bernard Keane et al should hang their heads in shame.
Not enough people died in Brazil, the UK, US, India etc etc etc? …. That’s one way to look at it?
Still full of it I see.
“but the truth is there’s good news from all around the globe.”
Get help Adam. Your sociopathy is on full display.
Adam Schwab always jumps the gun. His Reuters link actually shows cases increasing again over the last couple of weeks. Deaths lag cases by about two weeks, so it would be wise to wait before making pronouncements. Nearly all his statistical ‘research’ bears the hallmark of over-eager prematurity.