Here comes the future: the New York City race that will shape America

In 1665, following the surrender of the Dutch settlement of New Amsterdam to English invaders, Thomas Willett was appointed the first mayor of the newly renamed New York City. No one could have imagined that the tiny hamlet of 2500 people would become the world’s preeminent metropolis.

Fast forward 356 years — Tuesday week, New York City primary voters will select their party nominees for the race to become the 110th mayor in November’s election. Since New York is a heavily Democratic district, the primary will effectively determine the next occupant of Gracie Mansion.

The Democratic ballot will feature 13 candidates, eight of whom are considered genuine contenders. As befits a broad-based coalition party in the most diverse city in America, they reflect the contours of contemporary Democratic politics.

Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia, Maya Wiley, and Scott Stringer all cut their teeth in city and state government. Shaun Donovan oversaw the city’s housing department before being plucked to serve as a cabinet secretary in the Obama administration. Raymond McGuire was a senior Wall Street banker with Citigroup. Dianne Morales was a public school teacher before becoming a senior education policy advocate. Andrew Yang burst into the national spotlight when he ran for president in 2020.

The race has been volatile throughout. Yang established early frontrunner status on the back of his name recognition, but has since lost ground to his rivals. Stringer was cruising until allegations of past sexual misconduct emerged, which he failed to refute persuasively. Adams, a former police captain, has made steady gains to lead the latest polls. Meanwhile Wiley has surged to second in the past week following her endorsement by progressive supernova Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Garcia and Yang are tied for third behind her. New York has never elected a female mayor, so a victory for Wiley or Garcia would break new ground.

What makes this contest all the more unpredictable is that this is the first time the winner will be chosen by preferential voting, known as “ranked choice” voting in America. This electoral method, first used in Western Australia’s 1908 state election, has been gaining traction lately in the United States. It is seen as one means to elevate consensus nominees over more polarising figures who might readily win first-past-the-post ballots in crowded fields. The Democratic primary will use an optional ranked choice system, with voters being able to pick up to five candidates in order of preference.

No one knows how this process will affect the outcome. Professional pollsters, whose reputations have been tarnished by inaccurate projections in recent years, have all but given up predicting the result.

Why does it matter?

Why should we care who runs New York City? The reasons are manifold.

New York remains the most powerful city on Earth. The mayor is not just a titular figurehead with fancy robes and chains. Eight and a half million people live in the city’s five boroughs. That’s more than reside in 38 US states. The mayor manages a US$100 billion budget, larger than any Australian state government. More than a million children are enrolled in the city’s 1800 schools, the largest school system in the US. With 35,000 sworn officers and another 20,000 civilian employees, the New York City Police Department is the biggest police force in the country. Other agencies run the gamut from transportation and infrastructure to housing, consumer affairs, small business, fire safety, sanitation, parks and recreation, aged care, public health, and corrections. Everything required for the city that never sleeps.

Beyond City Hall, Wall Street remains the epicentre of global finance. Media, fashion, galleries, museums, and Broadway mark New York as the beating heart of American culture. The city’s restaurants still rank it as one of the globe’s culinary capitals. And the world’s leaders assemble at the United Nations alongside the East River.

So, the Big Apple is a big deal. As goes New York, so goes America. This was evident last year when COVID-19 took root in the US. Like it was 20 years ago following 9/11, the city was again ground zero for the nation’s attention. As leaders scrambled to respond to the crisis, the virus raged and the death toll soared. Residents reported ambulance sirens around the clock. Many of the triage and treatment initiatives and public health measures that were forged in those early weeks were later adopted nationwide.

This illustrates another maxim of New York. While Washington DC often hogs the headlines, state and local jurisdictions are considered the laboratories of democracy in America. The ideas and innovations that emerge there bubble up and out across the land. Being the most prominent city in America, if not the world, New York has regularly fulfilled this role. As the post-pandemic recovery takes shape, with new social and commercial norms to come, it will again be instrumental in this evolution.

All of which means the next mayor will be pivotal not only to the city’s future, but also the nation’s. Whoever wins will immediately become a leading voice in the Democratic Party and beyond. The voters’ choice will influence public policy all the way to the White House and Congress.

In a parallel primary, Democrats will also choose their nominee for Manhattan District Attorney. Eight aspirants will vie for the nod. Since it’s not term limited, the position doesn’t open often. There have only been three men elected to the top prosecutor’s job in the last 80 years. What makes this vote momentous is the recently announced criminal investigation into The Trump Organization. The new DA may have to lead the first prosecution of a former American president.

Since the American Revolution, New York has always been at the centre of American and global affairs. The last three mayors have all run for president. This time, a presidential candidate is running for mayor. Whatever the result, June 22 looms as a landmark day in America’s future.