Late on Monday Australia’s Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) met for its weekly discussion to decide whether to update its advice on the AstraZeneca vaccine. It decided against updating it, leaving Pfizer as the preferred vaccine for the under 60s — although anyone can request AstraZeneca from their GPs.
The meeting came the same day that a 72-year-old woman in South Australia is believed to have died from the rare blood clotting syndrome linked to AstraZeneca.
In late June, the Health Department released a document weighing up the risks of COVID-19 and the AstraZeneca vaccine based on advice from ATAGI. For every 100,000 people aged 18 to 29, 1.9 would develop blood clots and just one hospitalisation would be prevented. For those aged over 80 the risk is the same — 6.2 deaths and 11.5 hospitalisations would be prevented. Clot risk is highest in those aged 40 to 49; five in every 100,000 people develop clots.
Sydney University infectious disease expert Professor Robert Booy tells Crikey the risk assessment should be updated.
“It varies on where you live, and what your state of health is and whether you have underlying conditions,” he said. “The circumstances have changed in terms of your risk of catching COVID-19. We always need to maintain our sense of proportion and perspective.”
The University of Queensland is developing a more complex and detailed risk development assessment tool based on these inputs.
The discussion around risk has become highly politicised, with officials vocally going against ATAGI’s advice. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has advocated that young people should speak to their doctors and get their second dose at eight weeks instead of 12 amid Sydney’s outbreak, and NSW has allowed under 40s to get the AZ vaccine at its mass vaccination hubs.
On the flip side, other state and territory leaders — including Queensland’s chief health officer Dr Jeannette Young — have criticised the contradictions.
Booy doesn’t think ATAGI is being deliberately risk-averse, and is trying to do the right thing: “There are pressures from many different directions …. Politics plays a role and science should have a robust debate with politics.”
Professor of biostatistics at the University of South Australia Adrian Esterman tells Crikey ATAGI’s advice is simply based on its seniors’ medical opinions.
“Really and truly, the risks are incredibly low, and you’ll find a lot of people from around the state who say it’s safe to have it,” he said. “When you’ve got a major outbreak situation and you are seeing a number of people going to hospital then it’s probably time to rethink it.”
The government should be offering some amount of lump sum compensation for anyone that gets AZ then develops clots – some balancing of the risk that their vaccine purchasing program has landed us all in.
The risk is small so the amount offered would not need to be all that high, say $10,000 over and above all medical costs.
People could then make better informed decisions that would use up the available vaccines in the short term until good stocks of MRNA vaccines are available.
Well they did make a step in this direction, indemnifying GP’s who deliver the vaccination.
If they really thought that the risks of complications leading to death or life limiting injury, in the younger group were not raised, why else would they offer the GP’s indemnity insurance?
New South Wales’ coronavirus case numbers will keep bubbling along and restrictions will continue for months because of a “soft lockdown” approach that relies too heavily on people doing the right thing without clear guidance, a top epidemiologist says.
Prof Tony Blakely runs epidemiological modelling on Covid-19 for the University of Melbourne’s school of population and global health, and provided advice to the Victorian government during its prolonged second wave in 2020.
He says NSW needs to tighten its definition of essential workers and prioritise vaccinating those people if it wants to contain the Delta variant outbreak within weeks rather than months.
“I call what they are doing now ‘soft lockdown a la New South Wales’ and I have been very critical of this approach,” Blakely said.
We can have 100/1000/100,000 more “Hard” lockdowns, and Covid will still bubble out again.
The only circuit breaker is vaccinations.
That’s why it needs to stop. The merry-go-round of lockdowns if just that, an on again off again road to nowhere.
I am sorry that I don’t understand how rational people would consider commencing the vaccination process with AZ vaccine against the current Covid19 outbreak.
The AstraZeneca vaccine needs both shots administered at a minimum of 6 to 8 weeks apart, preferably 12 weeks for maximum effectiveness.
And so by the time the vaccinated person has reduced their chance of needing an ICU by 85% with AZ, the outbreak may well have been squashed.
The probability is that there will be enough mRNA vaccines available in 8 to 12 weeks, which only requires 3 weeks between injections to achieve a 96% reduction in the chances of needing an ICU.
The “rare”clotting disorder caused by the AZ vaccine is very much more common in the younger age groups and so urging the under 50’s to accept the AZ vaccine because the federal government could not be trusted to run a bath, let alone the ordering and purchase of current vaccines, is also highly irresponsible.
Smirko the clown’s usual MO is to punish anyone who dares to speak out and so I think that ATAGI has gone as far as it is reasonable for them to vary their advice.
If Smirko the clown and his echo Gladys, really and honestly thought that the use of AZ vaccine in the under 50’s was safe, they would not need to offer an extra indemnity insurance for the GP’s willing to inject.
At the same time they are not offering a huge payout for anyone suffering a significant life threatening or life ending complications which are classic to AZ, because the federal government can blame the GP’s and so limit the compensation payable.
When is GHUNT (the seal with the ball on his nose) going to make an appearance? I love the way he is so classically dismissive of any help given to him slapped away with a flipper and a bark.
I have to say that this whole circus has been tedious and I really wish that this particular dear leader left at the last election.
Certainly some experts and studies are quoting reduced, but some, protection from the first jab of AZ after 3 weeks. It may not stop you getting Covid, (although it may), but reduction in the likelihood of requiring hospitalisation seems to be a real benefit. Depends on who you read or what study you take notice of. You’re totally correct about full and best effects being after 12 weeks between jabs, and another 3 weeks for antibody defences to build up to maximum effect.
However for Pfizer the best effects also take about 3 weeks after the second dose, and by all reports the second dose of Pfizer is the one that generally has the side effects. Pfizer also has some darker and rare side effects of heart inflammation, so not risk free there either.
The indemnity for GPs is a strange one, but I think necessary because the Feds are only rolling out through GPs and don’t want any reluctance. An insurance scheme to cover costs including lost work for the individuals should be implemented as well. That should be the case for AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and any others. No jab is risk free, and not getting a jab is certainly not risk free.
Some qualification may help clarity in the above.…
“For every 100,000 people aged 18 to 29 who had been vaccinated against Covid 19, 1.9 would develop blood clots and just one hospitalisation from Covid 19 (alpha) would be prevented. For those aged over 80 the risk is the same, 1.9 would develop blood clots, — but from Covid 19 (alpha), 6.2 deaths and 11.5 hospitalisations would be prevented.”
And similarly – “it’s probably time to rethink [the ATAGI advice]”.
The acronyms are bouncing all over the place in their rush and nervous haste to implement the Coalition agenda of subterfuge and deflection. The AFP, ADF, ATAGI, AMA, IPA, etc all are involved in sheltering a dangerous pack of insatiable criminals from exposure. And today we see some sort of PR retrieval by Frewen’s lot with the al-armed and alert scare of a spy ship off our coast. FFS
Thanks Roger. Now that paragraph makes sense.
Thanks Roger, that is now decipherable. The interesting thing about conveying information about numbers is that precision in words is absolutely vital to convey meaning. A misplaced or lost word changes everything, as evidenced here.
Based on 2020 data, 3 people died every day of the year on the roads (1106 in total). Do we stop using the roads?
Do you think we could stop using roads without some cost, possibly even some loss of life? Until you allow for that cost, your comparison is false.
Although, due to Covid we stopped using the roads considerably I’d guess. I reckon 2019 would be a better comparison although I haven’t looked up the stats.
Researchers looking back are going to have a field day with our illogical responses to Covid.
At the end of the day we are all safer (from everything) if we stay locked down and never leave our houses.
As long as we keep consuming, it’s all good. I’m sure it’s been noticed.
Road accidents happen for a number of very ordinary reasons from equipment failure to sliding on a very wet road……..
AstraZeneca vaccine complications occur because someone considers it important to get vaccinated. That’s it!
Fake analogy, give the crazies Trump cheat sheet a rest. Your Coalition of Crims can’t even get the testing stations working properly in NSW
Zangari:
[The testing sites] should be put in areas that have many roads in and out. We have major stadiums that are in the Fairfield local government area, bigger parks and schools that have accessibility.
Where the 24 hour testing site is at Endeavour Reserve has one road in and basically one road out. It is not good enough. It has caused a lot of confusion and angst in amongst the community.
At the moment this is not good for the mental health and wellbeing of all residents of the Fairfield local government area who over the last three weeks have had the finger pointed at them, they have been shamed and blamed and they are doing the right thing here.
Commendations to all the residents but they need a government that is going to support them with all the resources possible.
Richard – that figure amounts to 50 deaths per million every year (dying on the roads), which we commonly taken as acceptable. You have provided a good comparison, giving context for the much lower risks due to vaccination.
Yes it’s been politicised because they have more Astrazeneca than they know what to do with, and if they could get everybody to take it the vaccination levels would really be flying.
What would really be interesting to know is how many of the discharged patients that have been affected by this vaccine are still getting outpatient care or are permanently injured?
ATAGI Initially was giving details on outpatient care but recently it appears to have stopped?
perhaps no more outpatient care is required but who would know and are any journalist asking for these details. It’s like car accidents, people only notice the number of people that die they don’t take much notice of all those that are injured permanently.
as well as all this we now have another complication: Guillain-Barre SyndromeIt’s it’s correct that we need to make a risk reward assessment and this vaccine can be beneficial but it’s difficult to make an accurate assessment without knowing all the facts and because it’s been politicised not everything has been discussed.
https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safety-report-08-07-2021
Given the lag time for efficacy on AstraZeneca, it seems the worst option to rush people into during an outbreak. Why isn’t every Pfizer dose possible going to NSW right now? Would make more sense to get the immune protection to where it is needed.
Don’t forget that both AZ and Pfizer offers ~70% protection against Covid after the first shot. So all is not lost.
Agree that Pfizer makes more sense to get to the ~90% protection more quickly.
I didn’t think the number was that high for AstraZeneca after the first dose – at least in terms of catching and transmitting the virus to others. I know it still offers some protection against severe disease, but at the moment the goal is to contain an outbreak. Other jurisdictions have the time to go through the AZ cycle – Greater Sydney doesn’t.
I know there’s been some discussion about this, I had just read that “Researchers also found the first dose offered 76 per cent protection in the three months between jabs, meaning people have high coverage while waiting for their second dose.” From the ABC article
AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses have better efficacy when given 12 weeks apart, study finds – ABC News