Browsing through the cesspools of Twitter and newspaper comment sections allows an unvarnished view of human emotion. And it remains clear that for many Australians, COVID-19 is a modern-day black plague that randomly slays millions of healthy people — without interventions like lockdowns and border closures, that is.
Rationally speaking, this view makes little sense, given we now have 18 months of very clear fatality data.
While COVID (in an unvaccinated population) is clearly more lethal than influenza, it is about 1/100th as damaging as the 1918 Spanish Flu. Across the world, 99.96% of people have not died from COVID, and for those who have fallen victim, 89% had a pre-existing condition, while the median age of death from COVID is, in almost all countries, above that nation’s life expectancy.
The CDC reported that on average COVID victims had four comorbidities. Even before vaccinations, COVID actually killed a relatively small number of people on a global scale, and those who tragically died were almost all already sick or very old. That said, because there are almost 8 billion people on Earth (which is a lot), 4.1 million deaths seems like a huge number (when not compared to the 8 billion).
But whether or not the fear of COVID that millions of Australians hold is rational — and whether it was encouraged by desperate media or self-serving politicians — isn’t the point. What is more curious is why Australians seem to have a very different view about COVID from Europe and the US, who have largely decided to treat COVID as endemic and largely live relatively normal lives, despite having very high infection levels relative to Australian standards.
One explanation for this is the “Remote Miss” theory, which was devised by Canadian psychiatrist JT MacCurdy and beautifully explained by Malcolm Gladwell in his book David and Goliath. Gladwell was trying to understand why so many Londoners were relatively unfazed by the constant German blitz of London between September 1940 and May 1941. Gladwell marvelled that within hours of massive bomb attacks, kids would be playing in the street and people shopping, as if nothing had ever happened.
He explained: “…the remote misses. These are the people who listen to the sirens, watch the enemy bombers overhead, and hear the thunder of the exploding bombs. But the bomb hits down the street or the next block over. And for them, the consequences of a bombing attack are exactly the opposite of the near-miss group. They survived, and the second or third time that happens, the emotion associated with the attack, MacCurdy wrote, ‘is a feeling of excitement with a flavour of invulnerability.’ A near miss leaves you traumatized. A remote miss makes you think you are invincible.
“‘We are all of us not merely liable to fear,’ MacCurdy went on. ‘We are also prone to be afraid of being afraid, and the conquering of fear produces exhilaration. When we have been afraid that we may panic in an air-raid, and, when it has happened, we have exhibited to others nothing but a calm exterior and we are now safe, the contrast between the previous apprehension and the present relief and feeling of security promotes a self-confidence that is the very father and mother of courage.'”
The US has reported 34 million COVID cases (and the real number is probably closer to 100 million), the UK more than 5 million. Italy, Spain and Germany, all around 4 million. The citizens of these countries have lived through COVID and seen first-hand that while the virus can be a killer it didn’t kill them. They had a remote miss. The UK is now recording more than 50,000 daily infections and today is largely returning to pre-COVID life.
Other than Melbourne’s second wave, which killed 800 people (82% in private nursing homes), very few Australians experienced a COVID remote miss. We haven’t seen the bomb craters and continued playing in the streets. Many Australians still fear a Northern Italy or India style wave of death, because they genuinely think it will happen without seemingly unending lockdowns.
The reality is Italy in March 2020 and India for a brief period this year were the outliers. The worst-hit countries have recorded fatality rates of 2000 per million over 18 months (or one death for every 500 people). But our current level of vaccinations mean that we’d see a fraction of those deaths (more than 70% of over-70s in Australia have had at least one dose).
But perhaps because we never really experienced it, Australians tend to not have especially rational views when it comes to COVID.
Adam Schwab is a Crikey and SmartCompany columnist, author of Pigs at the Trough: Lessons from Australia’s Decade of Corporate Greed, and the founder of LuxuryEscapes.com. He is a director of Private Media, the publisher of Crikey.
I don’t think the statistics matter much as you wheeze on a ventilator. Have you actually thought about why the death toll is NOT as huge as the spanish flu??? Maybe , just maybe, its because we had the lockdowns…drrrr. Adam’s ability to twist reality just gets sillier and sillier as he cherry picks the data. Has he seen the graves in Brazil, Indonesia etc. Has he seen the chaos in Europe?? Yes generally it is only the sick and old that get the pleasure to wheeze horribly to death. But as these old cretans take up all the hospital space the younger but also sick people have no hospital spaces to treat their milder problems and so some of them are also dying because the disease/whatever may escalate. So its OK then is it. I wonder what the attitude would be if, like the Spanish Flu, it was mainly the younger and fitter that died in greater numbers??
Actually, the lesser impact is more because of the (contemporary) presence of a public health system that didn’t exist 100 years ago. And it’s worth remembering that the original (early 2020) justification for lockdowns was to buy enough time so that public health authorities could manage the impact on the public health system. .
“Old cretins ya mean? Why do you assume the “old” are the only cretins? You might be a young cretin who murders and bashes old women over 40??? for fun and who think they are just fine abusing people based on ad hoc definitions…. 2 wrongs don’t make a right; the guy knows zip and I am amazed Crikey has to promote such loose cannons; but I really find your commentary sad and ignorant; Jack Nicholson is an old cretin; The creator of the internet is an old cretin.. you might be an old cretin; time accelerates and when I am an old cretin I would not want to meet you
The so called Spanish flu originated in America.
Not only are the preferred global figures of vaccination hard to reach, but being vaccinated does NOT confer FREEDOM from contagion nor FREEDOM from infecting those already fully or partially vaccinated.
Take the UK and the Tory declared FREEDOM DAY – shades of Trumpism can’t be ignored. Polly Toynbee is one of the best journalists TG has and her piece has must for the likes of Berjiklian, the FREEDOM DAY Schwabs of Australia, the Coalition and the carnival conman who made it to PM of NSW: Morri$$iner.
Toynebee writes:
How was “freedom day” for you? …..the NHS, social care, schools, supermarkets, hauliers, hospitality and transport sectors rumbled and raged with incomprehension at the chaos and hypocrisy unleashed by our leaders. Not even Boris Johnson’s Houdini magic may prevent these U-turns, dishonesties and panics turning his second anniversary at No 10 into his Black Monday turning-point.
The prime minister’s glory day was such a disappointment.
He had planned an event to declare his own VE Day – virus victory – “by summoning the spirit of Churchill with appropriately stirring rhetoric” at “an historic venue associated with the wartime leader”, according to a government source. In a rare wise move, Downing Street quietly cancelled it.
His advisers panicked over soaring Covid case numbers, predicted to rise to 100,000 or even 200,000 daily, the third-worst level in the world. What political idiocy, that the PM and chancellor thought they could skive off self-isolation on a non-existent VIP “pilot scheme” – the same one Michael Gove had invoked to avoid quarantine after taking his son to the Champions League final in Portugal. Far too late, Downing Street announced that No 10 and the Cabinet Office had pulled out of this “pilot”, refusing to publish its results.”
And the UK vaccinated disaster that is Johnson and his Tories lurches on from Brexit Freedom, to Freedom from public health measures
Schwab defines rationality purely from the individual’s point of view: what is the threat to me? However, the point of masks, lock-downs, tests, vaccines and so on is to protect the community, especially because at an given time, none of us can know whether we are spreading the disease or not. I depend on you to protect me, and vice versa. The old and vulnerable depend on us to protect them.
The Blitz was quite different. In deciding when to go about their business, apart from perhaps hindering rescue efforts, the Londoners had only themselves to think about. None of them was unwittingly carrying a bomb.
Are Australians (and New Zealanders) more communally motivated than Europeans? Perhaps we are, given that our isolation gives communally motivated behaviour more chance of success.
Londoners also went about their WW2 business as a deliberate act of defiance against the Luftwaffe. It’s a different kind of enemy, and a specious comparison. Who, apart from some conspiracy theory loons, is going to go about their own business during a Covid outbreak?
I would imagine that schwab and his desperate business interests Trump everything and the word Trump is significant
You don’t get it, do you Adam? This is not the Blitz. This is not bullets and bombs. This is a virus that is killing some, and leaving permanent physical damage top others, that will die up our healthcare system, and our healthcare funding, for decades.
Why do you keep ignoring those suffering from “Long Covid”, Adam? Because those numbers don’t fit your story. They don’t fit your poorly-veiled desire for everything to open up again so your travel business can make money. But all these Long Covid maladies are going to drive private healthcare fund fees higher, drive Medicare costs higher, leave people incapacitated and unable to use your travel business, slow down elective surgery waiting times even more than they already are, causing more people to die from illnesses that normally wouldn’t kill…
Have a look at these, Adam. “invisible lung damage in people with long Covid“, “heart palpitations, chest pain or tightness”, “identified 200 symptoms affecting 10 organ systems in people with long Covid”, “extreme tiredness (fatigue),
problems with memory and concentration (“brain fog”)”. That’s just a few well-documented ones.
Aren’t they worth factoring in?
Nah, not to you. No bigger picture for you. No interest beyond deaths clearly identified as being caused by Covid, not where Covid is a factor.
Very poor journalism, Adam. But wait – you aren’t a journalist! You’re a just a commentator. A very biased one, and one whose work wouldn’t get published anywhere near a reputable health or science publication.
He’s not even a commentator. He’s …
“a board member of Private Media, the publisher of Crikey.”
Given that the Private Media website says it acts in the interests of its audience I can’t see how the audience of Crikey would be interested in the Adam schwab neoliberal libertarian let it rip ideology
Nor do Adam shabs business interests which are behind his Trump Johnson Morrison style let covid rip articles, align with the interests of Crikey readers.
I think his audience is more those of the other Private Media publications such as The Mandarin. Schwab does appear to have one devoted fellow QAnon believer in James 1.
With Shabs erroneous comparison to the second world war one wonders if he is actually not Scovid himself the war games Cult devotee busily militarizing the Australian democracy holding out the carrot to those so involved of fast track promotion in the ADF
Adam Schwab along with Scoo Turner from Flight Centre, both fall into the Gerry Harvey category of heartless business facilitators.
This is the same Adam Schwab who exalted Sweden. If we had their death rate we would have over 36,000 dead rather than just over 900. Our approach seems rational to me.
yep the twin removalists from NSW; they got on with it ; now have a dead mum in here 50’s; those poor desperate men looking to survive on subsistence work now there is no coming out or ignoring the lock down; whilst Jones squark abuse from his tower of Babel
Adam seems to come from the “every man for himself” school of Pandemic Management.
Until we are vaccinated at around 80% >12yo our only options are either accept lockdowns or “let ‘er rip”.
There’s plenty of data out there that shows “let ‘er rip” in a largely unvax population does enormous economic damage.
So many “commentators” doggedly assume that not locking down delivers a pre-Covid level of consumer behaviour.
It does not.
Try finding an economist that agrees that our economy would just trundle along beautifully with ICUs full, long-covid everywhere, and a 1.5% case Fatality Rate – you won’t.
Look at the mobility charts from Google, people lock themselves down.
We have 2 family business is Syd EastSubs, both saw 60% cancel bookings BEFORE lockdown was announced.
The owner wanted hard lockdown 2 weeks before it was announced by Gladys.
We need vax, that’s it.
My thoughts also Dougz. Also living in Syd East suburbs, and I can assure you that opening up with cases in the community will not see me return to my previous consumer habits. I will probably never eat in a restaurant again, takeaway only. No cinemas, god I miss that, no public transport – don’t miss that. Much time will end up being spent out of Sydney.
I agree that 80% >12s vaccination, but hope for much higher still. There are a small number of people who won’t be able to vax for medical reasons. Do we just toss them on the Covid pyre and see if they burn? Highest possible vax rates required, and if the non-vaxes lose some freedoms, well that’s democracy.