With the slow pace of the vaccine rollout already putting its reelection prospects in doubt, the Morrison government has emerged from the weekend with new headaches arising from a growing conservative rebellion over COVID-19 management.
The most visible manifestation was Saturday’s anti-lockdown protests, which were attended by a government MP in George Christensen and a prominent Liberal Party activist in John Ruddick, who has defected to the Liberal Democrats and will run as the party’s candidate in Tony Abbott’s old seat of Warringah.
While none of this would have come as too much of a shock to anyone familiar with either individual’s track record, it was followed overnight by the genuinely startling news that former Queensland premier Campbell Newman had quit the Liberal National Party with a view to running against it in the Senate.
The Australian has reported that Newman is also likely to throw his lot in with the Liberal Democrats, although he is understood to have also had talks with One Nation and Clive Palmer, and could end up running as an independent.
While Newman has never been lacking in self-confidence, it can hardly be denied that he has himself a difficult task. Since there seems little prospect that the parties of the left will lose yet more ground in Queensland at the next election, a Senate seat would have to come at the expense of either Pauline Hanson or Amanda Stoker, who will hold the third position on the LNP ticket.
With group voting tickets abolished in 2016, the days when Newman might have hoped to get up through adroit preference dealings with micro-party networks are long gone.
Now that voters make up their own minds about which party boxes to number, preferences are strongly favouring known quantities. That has meant meagre pickings for the likes of the Liberal Democrats, with micro-party preferences in Queensland flowing heavily to One Nation and, to a somewhat lesser extent, the LNP, Labor and the Greens.
No doubt Newman’s name recognition would improve things, but it seems likely that a successful Senate bid would have to come despite small party preferences rather than because of them.
Newman will thus need to outpoll either One Nation or what remains of the LNP vote after its first two candidates are elected, and then be pushed over the line on their preferences. That hurdle would exceed 10% if the 2019 result was repeated, although polls and state election results, together with the fact of competition from Newman, suggest neither the LNP nor One Nation will do as well this time.
While that should helpfully lower the bar, Labor could potentially gain an extra seat if it forms part of a substantial drop in the overall right-of-centre vote, in which case Newman’s path to victory would become very narrow indeed.
To stand a realistic chance, Newman will thus have to persuade the better part of one in 10 Queenslanders to give him their first preference, which he is evidently hopeful of doing through a combination of his personal drawing power and the niche of anti-lockdown sentiment that found expression on Saturday.
While the limitations of the former were demonstrated by his government’s unceremonious defeat after one term in 2015, Newman’s uncompromising style as premier seems to have won him lasting admiration among LNP voters. A recent Ipsos poll found about 60% (out of an admittedly small sample of 173) maintained a favourable view of him.
What’s less clear is why voters in Queensland would turn on the Morrison government specifically over lockdowns imposed by state Labor, which have in any case been greatly less demanding than those endured by Sydney and Melbourne.
And while Newman would undeniably bring extensive political experience to the Senate, it’s at best arguable that his election would be a net benefit to conservative politics if it came at the expense of a rising Coalition star in Stoker.
Worse still, his presence in an already crowded field could simply serve to split the vote and dilute the flow of preferences between the various right-of-centre candidates, potentially adding an extra Labor or Greens member to a precariously balanced Senate.
60% of LNP voters still like him, eh? 100% of non-LNP voters still despise him.
He earned every person who despises him.
Well well, like the floater he is, the Newman sponge on society wants back on the gravy train. Newman gave us a QC for AG. In circumstances that confounded many in the legal profession, and resulted in a pandemic of AG legal viral decisions from which we still suffer.
G Barnes 2006 on the appointment of George Brandis to silk.
‘North of the border, we have the case of Queensland Liberal Senator, George Brandis.
Senator Brandis was appointed an SC this year, despite not being on the Queensland Bar Association’s list of recommended appointments.
The Chief Justice of Queensland, Paul De Jersey decided nonetheless to appoint Senator Brandis.
Senator Brandis’ reward must surely come as a surprise to his colleagues.
He has barely practiced law since going into the Senate in 2000.
And the Queensland Bar Association guidelines for the appointment of SC’s state that “Unless there are exceptional circumstances, appointment as Senior Counsel will be restricted to practicing barristers.”
Of course, when the media asked Chief Justice De Jersey to shed some light on the mystery behind Senator Brandis’ appointment, it was met with the usual secretive non-reply. ‘
CJ De Jersey was later rewarded by LNP Campbell Newman when elected and given the job of Governor of Qld. And some may remember another of Newman’s appointments: the Tim Carmody of Errors.
Unflushable?!
The guy is just a has-been from the past trying to rort more money from the tax payer. I really hope he stands for the Senate as that will likely take out another one of THE PENTECOSTAL’S favorite embarrassments in Amanda Stoker. She is another far right Pentecostal wack job and so far has managed not to be involved in any rorting of the tax payers money.
Unfortunately the SA Liberals are in the process of trying to fend of the take over by the Clappers Cult recently actively recruiting party members in various Pentecostal communities in recent months, with more than 400 new members signed up since January.
Adelaide Pentecostal parishioners have been told it is their “mission” to join political parties so they can shape policy and pre-selections – amid claims senior Liberals are actively recruiting from their ranks – with a Marshall Government minister telling a local congregation to rail against the separation of church and state.
Liberal Party state president Legh Davis has been sent an email – seen by InDaily – by a parishioner from an Adelaide Pentecostal church, complaining that a senior Liberal has been “using my church to take over your party”.
It comes just days after a southern suburbs church – Southland Church in Pasadena – held a service attended by four senior Liberal MPs, at which the pastor, Rob Norman, told the congregation it was their “mission” to become party members to help block contentious ‘anti-Life’ legislation such as the recent abortion and voluntary euthanasia Bills.
“It’s really simple – if Christians joined political parties many of these Bills would not even make it into parliament,” Norman told the gathering in a service that was live-streamed on Facebook.
[Liberal Senator] Antic did not respond to calls today and replied to a series of questions sent by text message by telling InDaily that “due to your inaccurate and lop-sided reporting I have no interest in speaking to you”.
“I do not speak with InDaily because InDaily is fake news,” he said.
Google: The Divine Right: Pentecostal recruitment drive divides SA Libs
“What’s less clear is why voters in Queensland would turn on the Morrison government specifically over lockdowns imposed by state Labor”
While the public’s relationship with lockdowns is complicated and changeable, they were from the start seen as a very strong positive for the state governments.
Even though people are growing increasingly sick of them, the ire is not directed at the states, but at the feds, for stuffing up the vax rollout, hence necessitating the lockdowns.
Gladys’ lockdown hesitancy is a pointed example of what happens when the states don’t act decisively, and in her case, having so far been seen as teacher’s pet, her faffing about has tarred not just the Liberal brand in general, but Morrison himself specifically.
This seemingly contradictory feeling towards lockdowns – a tick for the states, but bad for the feds – may change as time goes on, but at the moment, Morrison is copping it no matter which way he turns, and he’s brought it all on himself.
Definitely Glenn. Apparently people are quite averse to the risk of slowly dying with a tube stuck down their necks, and have consequently backed swift lockdowns, except for a very small group of clowns who thought a demonstration in the middle of an outbreak was a good idea.
As the saying goes, there are no ICU bed anti-vaxxers.
Here’s hoping he will be as much of a failure as he was when in politics.
One term Newman! He was parachuted into the top job from outside state parliament! Can’t get more democratic than that. And like the Rodent John Howard his party lost power and the LNP premier was booted from his seat. And this guy’s a winner with potential? The corruption and gaming he got up to in those 3 short years is eyewatering. The LNP agenda under this article of dire corruption was to privatise $34 billion worth of assets if it was re elected! One in particular a real stand out.
”Labor Deputy Premier, Mr Fraser insists Mr Newman has more questions to answer.
“Not only has Campbell Newman and his family’s web of business dealings become an international embarrassment for Queensland, but they cast a long shadow over whether he is fit for office,” he said in a statement.
A mind boggling family affair
https://finance.nine.com.au/business-news/fraser-had-hand-in-fbi-review-newman/964b8291-45d4-494c-8bf2-c176e4e427f9