If the Turnbull era is now mostly forgotten in Canberra — as if a government could ever actually attempt to do serious policy! — there are some lessons on offer from Turnbull’s prime ministership of relevance to the shoddy, corrupt outfit that succeeded him.
One is that Barnaby Joyce is a drag on the Coalition’s vote. A noticeable one.
The Turnbull government had a rough time from the 2016 election onward — having just fallen over the line with a tiny majority, it limped into 2017 and then, from mid-year, faced the rolling instability of the parliamentary eligibility crisis. The highest profile victim was Joyce, who — in a characteristic display of poor judgment — had mocked members of other parties ousted for being foreign citizens before being found to be one himself.
Then came the scandal around Joyce’s affair with a staffer in early 2018, followed by revelations of allegations of sexual harassment against Joyce — allegations Joyce denies, and that to this day have not been properly tested. Amid open brawling with Turnbull, Joyce was forced out.
Thereafter, the Coalition’s fortunes turned around. Newspoll shows that, from a nadir of 36% in February 2018, the government’s primary vote began recovering steadily, reaching 39% by May 2018, its highest level since the early days of Turnbull’s prime ministership. The 2PP vote — which had hovered around a six-point deficit for the government throughout 2017 and early 2018, shrunk to just two points after Joyce was banished to the backbench.
By coincidence, Labor’s 2PP lead in Newspoll has returned to six points in the wake of Joyce’s return to the deputy prime ministership, after being 50-50 in the last poll before he seized the leadership of the Nationals.
In Joyce’s only federal election as leader, the Nationals went backwards in his home state of NSW, while the LNP, the base of Joyce’s party support, suffered a 2.5% swing against it. Only in Victoria did the Nats lift their vote in the lower house — off the back of a strong swing in Gippsland to Darren Chester, the Nationals’ best talent and a man whose decency Joyce would have to die and get born again to come near.
For journalists who like the colour and movement of Joyce, who still think he is “the best retail politician in Australia”, and who are content to overlook the sexual harassment allegations, the reality of Joyce’s electoral impact is quietly overlooked.
The most effective political imagery confirms voters’ worldview and attitudes, rather than contradicting them. And Joyce confirms all of the current negative impressions of the Morrison government — that it is corrupt and rips off taxpayers, that it has a 1950s attitude to women and can’t figure out what the problem is with sexual predators and sexual harassment, and that it is only focused on being in power, not on delivering anything of substance.
Add to that the fact that under Joyce, the Nationals represent not farmers or regional communities but their fossil fuel donors. The federal Nationals, for example, have received over $140,000 from Santos since 2014; the company has also handed tens of thousands of dollars to the Queensland LNP and NSW Nationals.
The working assumption of political journalists early this year was that Scott Morrison would stroll to victory, most likely at an election in October, off the back of a successful vaccination rollout. On current form, Sydney won’t even be out of lockdown by that putative election date — a lockdown partly caused by Morrison’s shambolic rollout and his failures, and that of state governments, on quarantine. Now the idea is voters will forget the shambles and the lockdowns by the time an election is actually held next year.
But the longer we go before the next election, the more opportunity Joyce will have to confirm every negative impression voters have of a sordid and incompetent government.
I cannot understand the Nats obseesion with Joyce. He is a liar and a fraud. What is more he never follows his word through if it involves protecting water. The whole of Australia would be better off if every National lost their seat and regional Australia even more so. I cannot work out why people where I live vote for them, but I have always been represented by them at the Federal level.
My view is that people in regional areas, tormented by the vagaries of difficult weather, live in eternal hope that things will get better eventually.
Even when climate change is making matters much worse, that hope still burns feebly enough to make them believe that a national politician will eventually help them.
According to Helen Dalton, the Member for Murray, there are little to no regulations or planning surrounding planting of almonds. “You don’t even need a DA to set up a nut farm” says Dalton. Where Victoria has put in a moratorium on permanent plantings, NSW is still “rolling out the red carpet to these international investors”.
Due to the impact which nut farms have on the environment and the price of water, being able to plant as much as you like is akin to “building a skyscraper in the middle of a Melbourne suburb, without any checks and balances”.
According to Peter, this is “what’s fun”, as all permanent agriculture crops such as nuts, vice grapes and dried fruits, require 700GL of water annually. When they reach full maturity, they will need approximately 1,250GLS.
During the last drought there was only 1100GLs of available freshwater in the whole of the lower Murray Darling.
This suggests that under extremely dry conditions, such as those of the millennium drought, the lower Murray Darling Basin may only have enough water to meet 40% of the existing permanent horticulture water demands, according to Duxton’s analysis.
This is the “unbelievably beautiful story” which Peter is holding out for, “We’re going to have the next drought, not if but when, and there’s going to be one heck of a fight for the marginal supply of water” in Australia, he told investors.
According to Dalton, at the prices which Duxton Water is hoping to achieve, regular croppers and other traditional agricultural industries such as dairy would not be able to compete.
“What you need to understand about the water market”, says Dalton, “is that there are different types of water entitlement you can buy.”
“High security water is generally speaking higher reliability and therefore more expensive. Those people with living structures” such as almond farmers “should be using high security water”. The cheaper General Security water entitlements are only filled once there is enough water in the system to fill the needs of those holding high security water.
A third place farmers can get their water is on the temporary water market, where water is bought and sold in quantities as small or large as farmers may need.
According to Dalton “these big multinationals will buy permanent high security water for a third of their needs, then lease another third from water traders like Duxton, and then they’re on the market buying the remaining.”
Because of their massive water needs, these multinational investors drive the price of water up across every water market. On the temporary water market, they will be competing against rice and dairy farmers.
According to Peter, “US and Canadian pension funds have been exceptionally active down here, ‘cause we’re so much cheaper, (and) we believe that will continue”.
Lachlan Marshall, a fourth-generation dairy farmer, says the rising cost of water has caused dairy farmers to “close up shop, sell their farms and walk away”.
Above link
Got the same problem here OG1. Both Feral and State
One of the ironies being that The very first club on the queue for a grant, before the “sports rorts” re-sort, is in this electorate. After the rort sort it wasn’t even on the list.
Why waste money on a seat held by a 17% Nat. margin? Point this out to most of the locals and you get the reply ” but they’re bloody good blokes”. It makes my head hurt!
The bigger question behind the how much damage question is, how much environmental vandalism is the National Party and their tail wagging Liberals doing to this nation! It’s massive. And anyone who cares to inform themselves is terrified.
Duxton Water executives have been boasting about “beautiful” structural imbalances in Australia’s water market, and potentially dazzling profits from drought. Corporate nut farming is thirsty business and the proliferation of almond farms is poised to whip up prices and crush traditional agriculture in Australia’s food bowl, reports Callum Foote.
Going Nuts: Murray Darling’s “unbelievably beautiful story” for investors a nightmare for farmers, environment
[Chairman Ed Peters of ] Duxton Water has looked to the California almond industry for inspiration. In the US, almond farmers are able to make a profit despite water which costs as high as AUD$30,000 per million litres (ML). Currently in Australia, the most expensive water which can be bought are high security water entitlements which range up to A$8,000.
The Australian almond industry has grown by 1500% since 2000, with 30% of the almond trees planted in the south Murray Darling Basin being planted in the last 5 years. These most recent plantings are not yet mature.
When they do mature, current almond orchards in the Murray Darling Basin will need approximately 700 gigalitres (GL), or 700 billion litres, of water annually when they reach maturity. This is equivalent to 32% of all high security water entitlements available to irrigators in Australia.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/going-nuts-murray-darlings-unbelievably-beautiful-story-for-investors-a-nightmare-for-farmers-environment/
Enjoy your sanctimonious vegan almond milk lattes. As I understand it the lucrative water ‘market’ has some very very big political names engaged in it, who also enjoy Cayman Island tax breaks.
And you can forget mumbling about corporate farmers and their NFF, the environmental vandalism is a result of decades and current poor farming practices, from individual farmers, not just corporations.
Totally agree ogo – most of the residents of regional Australia are not farmers / graziers so its hard to understand why they feel the need to vote for the Nationals.
They’ve have delivered nothing for them and failed miserably to develop regional Australia to the extent it should have been.
Their obligation is to the mining industry and rorting anything they can.
Bernard, I think it is unfair to blame state governments for quarantine failures. Hotel quarantine was only ever a band aid solution and state governments have been pushing the Morrison government for dedicated quarantine facilities for about a year.
Spot on, needed correcting Bernard.
The fact of the matter at issue is the entry of people into Australia and quarantine matters are and always have been the purview of the Federal Government. When on 30 March 1908, the Commonwealth Quarantine service came into operation and took over quarantine stations in every Australian state.
That is why there were quarantine stations in all major and some minor ports but by the mid 1980s they had all been shut down, none were left available, as far as I am aware, to be able to carry on providing quarantine. So now it is panic stations concerning serious quarantine in Australia.
Now the states have had to commit to such, Victoria first up, now being followed by others, concerning the construction of quarantine facilities, finally Smirko grudgingly agrees to fund construction, as if it was money from his own pocket, not the taxpayers of the CofA , the man who is throwing AUD500 million of taxpayers money at the AWM.
Given quarantine has been the purview of the Federal Government since 1908,it is clear that the start of the Covid-19 Pandemic and its arrival in Australia with the Ruby Princess. that the buck stopped with the Federal Government, in particular the then Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and his Department Secretary Mike Pezzullo.
The Federal Government, with the appalling fiasco of letting infected passengers from cruise ships go unchecked into the community as well as a biosecurity collapse at airports, has made it obvious that there are deficiencies in both Commonwealth emergency management by Australian Border Force and Federal quarantine authorities, this together with some State incompetence.
And now. with a slavering Dutton moved to Defence, there is a screeching Karen in charge of Home Affairs/ABF no improvement there.
Harbour master called by Border Force
…Cameron Butchart, the port services manager and duty harbour master for the NSW Port Authority, told the inquiry he had “a concern for the occupational health and safety” of sending a pilot on board to help the ship dock, because of Covid-19.
He said on the night of 18 March and again on 19 March he was called by representatives of Home Affairs and the Australian Border Force.
“This particular person certainly had concerns with the situation,” he said. “I used the phrase on the night ‘turn it around’ [which] was probably the simplest way to explain it to someone on shoreside.“But we more than likely could have held the ship in a certain position. We could have dropped an anchor … to allow us to gather some more facts.”
Commissioner Bret Walker SC asked Butchart: “Had you ever experienced anything like that before?”
“Never,” Butchart said.
The inquiry heard on that the Ruby Princess was allowed to dock after a second call from the same Border Force officer.
Butchart rejected the idea that Home Affairs and Border Force were “not decision makers” and said they “would have been working very closely with biosecurity in making this decision” to let the ship dock.”…
It is the ABF, a large part of the Department of Home Affairs, that is responsible for offshore and onshore border control enforcement, investigations, compliance and detention operations in Australia.
Should not its intelligence gathering and analysis of such have been aware of the Ruby Princess situation from very early on?
If not, what use is the Passenger profiling and watch lists doing when using a “big data” analysis ecosystem to monitor people and cargo entering and leaving Australia?
One would have expected that, given the occurrence of Covid-19 on cruise ships world wide, any cruise ship entering Australian territorial waters would have been immediately flagged for attention and communications opened with such to determine its Covid-19 status?
Specifically given that part of the ABF is the Maritime Border Command as Australia’s lead civil maritime security agency operating in the maritime domain, to ensure compliance with Australia’s maritime legislation by foreign and domestic non-state actors.
It is a multi agency task force working in direct collaboration with the Australian Defence Force as such is responsible for civil maritime security and coast guard activities.
grâce à wikipedia
Dirty Dutton strikes again
I think Border Farce has more in common with the SWAT teams in the “Blues Brothers” movie, going Hup! Hup! Hup! as they abseiled down the wrong building.
Agreed. Ever seen that sentiment in a Murdoch run paper?
State governments can be blamed for reducing the freedom of Australians. If you think they’re gonna stop, they won’t. Get ready for permanent lockdowns.
As captain mainwaring was fond of saying “foolish boy”
The national party are the dads army of politics.
Is there any justification for the dead weight of the Nationals?
Last election results
Greens 10.40% Seats 1
National 4.51% Seats 10
Keep saying a vote for Morrison is a vote for Joyce as DPM and it may resonate to the extent that both leave come the next election.
And for all Joyce stands for which is profound corruption and the ruination of our decrepit struggling waterways and our chemicalized land and waterways.
” water investors like Duxton Waters are “parasites that thrive off the misery of others”. Far from the wants of traditional water buyers, water investors “want to see mismanagement and low allocations. Anything that causes demand for water increases their profit margins”.
Without proper planning, or at the very least the introduction of transparency mechanisms suggested by the ACCC’s report into the Murray Darling Basin, Dalton fears that Australia will lose “that diversity of agriculture which has been the strength of our communities”.
Morrison Federal Minister for Resources and Water, Keith Pitt has yet to respond to questions regarding plans to follow through on the ACCC’s recommendations.”
The Morrison website says: ‘Today, our water markets are internationally recognised as Australia’s water reform success story.’ Not for our environment and not for Australians, but definitely for shareholders and foreign companies
Hawke/Keating and Howard did the damage federally, with Labor John Cairn state based.
https://www.agriculture.gov.au/water/markets/history
Its a shame I live in Darren Chester’s electoral area and while I don’t agree with him all the time he is a hard working honest individual who has a strong following. However I can see issues occurring now that Barnaby Joyce is back especially among female voters. What everyone forgets is that their is a large contingent of voters who come from the city to live in the country who have no allegiance to the Nats through generational voting. Demographics has changed so unless the party acknowledges this it could become as irrelevant as the social democrats did and we all know what happened to them.