Vaccination goals behind the government’s four-phase plan for a vaccinated Australia have been released by the national cabinet. Phase B of the plan, which will ease restrictions on vaccinated Australians, allow student and economic visa holders entry along with increased caps for returning Australians, and reduce the likelihood of lockdown will occur when around 70% of Australian adults have received two doses of the vaccine.
Phase C will start when more than 80% of the population is vaccinated and will abolish caps on returning vaccinated Australians, extend a travel bubble between countries, and result in highly targeted lockdowns only.
These targets are set on having those aged 16 and above inoculated, with booster shots planned, focusing on reducing hospitalisation and serious illness over case numbers.
But the data doesn’t make sense: While the national cabinet received a briefing from the Doherty Institute on Friday, it’s not clear how this has been interpreted to set the vaccination targets. Taking into account the whole of the population — not just those aged over 16 — drops these vaccination goals from 70% to 56% and 80% down to 64%.
Anything less than 80% is risky
Modelling released by the Grattan Institute last week showed ending lockdowns and reopening borders will be possible once 80% of the total population is vaccinated, and 95% of those aged over 70. While the report deems 80% “ambitious” it notes that it could happen before the end of the year if a vaccine is approved for children under 12. 85% vaccination rates would be needed for all international border restrictions to be removed for vaccinated people. Whether this is achievable is another question: countries around the world have yet to hit 80% vaccination rates with vaccination rates slowing around the 60-70% mark.
Modelling by James Cook University found that to address the Delta variant, 85% of the population would need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. This could drop to 75% if there was close to 100% uptake among the most infectious ages from 20 to 60-year-olds, which is unlikely.
Professor Stephen Duckett, who prepared the Grattan Institute report, told Crikey the government’s goals were “risky”.
“The benchmark the government have effectively set is 56% and 64% and that’s what’s concerning. What matters is the actual rate of the whole population,” he said.
Why are young people being excluded?
AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines have been approved for those aged 12 and above, so setting the target for those aged 16 and above is odd, and out of step with a lot of countries. Excluding those aged under 16 in the data is a concern with the Delta variant, which is causing respiratory illness in children and is more transmissible across all age groups. In the UK, infections are rising quickly among those aged 10 to 19 — a major concern for schools.
World Health Organisation adviser and epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws told Crikey the goals seemed “cavalier”.
“They lack a duty of care. If you’re only going to have 56% of the population vaccinated, that’s nearly every other person unvaccinated,” she said.
“This does not keep us safe. This is going in the opposite direction.”
Even for other variants, a 56% vaccination goal is a low number, but for the Delta variant, which has a viral load of roughly 1000 times more than the original strain — meaning there’s more of the virus in each infected person’s body to spread — it’s particularly risky. In the US, masks are advised to be worn indoors even by the fully vaccinated in response to increasing COVID-19 cases caused by the delta variant.
What goals do other countries have?
Singapore has a target of vaccinating 75% of its total population, while New Zealand modelling estimates 80-85% of the total population would need to be vaccinated before restrictions can be eased. Germany has set its sights on 85% of all people aged 12 to 59 to be vaccinated, while US experts estimated between 60% and 90% would need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity — though this goal was set prior to widespread Delta variant infections.
Compared to international benchmarks, Australia’s targets to reopen the country aren’t just low — they’re incredibly, incredibly risky. The Doherty Insitute modelling, and the government’s interpretation of it, has yet to be released.
Here in Australia, we don’t have *targets*, we have *horizons*…….which is kind of apt given that an Horizon is something you can never reach.
Yes but it is a word associated in Scovid’s mind with his clap happy cult
Like a Heineken ad. in reverse ?
When you have a vaccine stroll-out, the next best thing is to fudge the goals.
The stated goals are inappropriate. The 70% figure (for adults) is totally inadequate. Vaccines for under 12s probably need more development/testing, and possibly for the 12 to 15 group. 80-85% for 16+ would seem more in-line with expert advice and I think we can get there, eventually, but starting out with fudged goals is another own-goal.
Just be honest with us. Where did that 70% figure come from, I’m fairly sure no health expert suggested it.
I’d like to see more testing for 12-15yr olds. When Pfizer was approved for that age group by the TGA, all I could find was a singular study of a little over 2200 participants.
18 of the 1100-odd unvaccinated (placebo) got Covid, while zero of the 1100-odd Pfizer recipients did. Makes a great 100% efficacy reading, but the numbers are way too low to instill a lot of confidence.
Berejiklian has been exposed as not following health advice but following party advice for political gain when it came to implementing any public health measures let alone anything of consequence when she unleashed Delta upon the nation from her Gold Standard of leaky hotel rooms
Fair suck of the sav. – the Ruby Princess carriers were not quarantined in “…leaky hotel rooms“!
They weren’t sequestered at all, unless at Solent Cct, Norwest NSW 2153.
Which seems unlikely.
Haha, and if Scumbo and she has her way we’ll be awash with Indian variant Delta, have you seen this yet? Brilliant
https://www.thejuicemedia.com/honest-government-ad-hotel-quarantine-vaccines/
Norman Swan
talked about 70% vaccination, you heard 70%, 80% being bandied around, of the eligible population, but in fact of the total population, it’s not actually 70%, it’s actually 56% in the total population, because the 70%…
Tegan Taylor: Because we are not counting people under 16.
Norman Swan: Which is a little bit over 20% of the population. So it’s about 56% coverage. 56% full coverage is pretty much exactly what you’ve got in Britain and America at the moment, a bit more in Israel, and what you’ve got are major outbreaks of the Delta variant in both countries. So, 56% is not enough to control it.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/is-70-per-cent-fully-vaccinated-enough/13479270
Thanks, I’ve starred the juicemedia site. Enjoy satire.
Norman Swan
talked about 70% vaccination, you heard 70%, 80% being bandied around, of the eligible population, but in fact of the total population, it’s not actually 70%, it’s actually 56% in the total population, because the 70%…
Tegan Taylor: Because we are not counting people under 16.
Norman Swan: Which is a little bit over 20% of the population. So it’s about 56% coverage. 56% full coverage is pretty much exactly what you’ve got in Britain and America at the moment, a bit more in Israel, and what you’ve got are major outbreaks of the Delta variant in both countries. So, 56% is not enough to control it.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/is-70-per-cent-fully-vaccinated-enough/13479270
Ah Selkie, we all know that the reason why the Ruby princess was allowed into Sydney harbour at all, was because the Harbourmaster was overruled by “Borderfarce”
The passengers were unloaded faster than cattle are loaded onto a bulk livestock carrier.with the granting of “Pratique” or a “Clean bill of health” from again, Borderfarce.
The latest is that everyone knows that “leaky” hotel quarantine is better than “not at home” home quarantine, however, the Prime Minimal is trying to cost shift onto the states and so over a year he has resisted either building extra quarantine places with their own air conditioning or paying for some to be built.
Another example of short term vision. Does anyone really think this will be the last pandemic?.
In Queensland Smirko the clown offered the Damascus barracks which was last used briefly, during the Vietnam war.
The corrugated iron buildings are rusting, roofs look like they have holes in them, they certainly do not have separate shower or toilet facilities and are not connected to the sewerage system.
The barracks pre-date air conditioning.
Thank you Prime Minimal, how about we put the rest of the Olympic team in them?.
Hey Dog hope you don’t mind if I call you Dog for short??? The ‘fool in the baseball cap’ aka slime Morrison needs at all cost in the face of his blatant failure to meet earlier targets regrading the vaccine roll out to set targets that are able to not only be seen to be met but in fact be met. Preferably before the next election to show what an ;action’ man he really is and is able to keep his promises.
In order to do this and running true to form our morally bankrupt leader is prepared to set targets that are clearly too low to secure a safe future for other Australians. As usual the ends justify the means and its all about Morrison,
Slime Morrison, more than appropriate. And he and his fellow slimeballs are prepared to have this unleashed on the nation while they enjoy a luxury escape holiday from one of their supporters.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-03/covid-delta-danger-sees-experts-prepare-for-hospital-surge/100334558
It’s a terrifying future in a nation where vaccine privatisation and vaccine purchasing from mates only has resulted in us even more at risk. And the reason why it’s out in the community is directly due to Berjikilian and her gold standard of leaky hotel rooms, instead of purpose built quarantine facilities on which Slimeball Moronisin refuses to spend a cent.
Dog you got it in one.
No one with any concept of vaccination sero-conversions would say 70% is OK.
Not everyone who has a vaccination develops antibodies…..
Another example of Morrison and his government’s cavalier attitude to the virus – on show from way back when this Der Brazenkavalier PM was exhorting us to treat it as a flu, ‘go to the footy’ and ‘let the Ruby Princess come right on in’ …… a pandemic ‘best countered by morale’?
This attitude of “Move the goal posts to make it look like we’re doing something proper”?
…. Why aren’t the premiers telling us where this magic figure was plucked from?
Rather like life savers moving the flags to ensure that swimmers are between them.
The vaccination goals set by our Prime Minister (They are numerous since jabs became available) are entirely in keeping with his character in that the goals are low and he will fail to achieve them. I have no faith in Mr. Morrison’s abilities except his capacity to create chaos and uncertainty all around him.The man is lethal for Australia, worse than Tony Abbott.
It would once have been thought impossible to be a worse PM than Abbott.
Is it a miracle?
No, not a miracle, Selkie. It is all due to Mr. Morrison’s hard work. He had to try really, really hard for us to attain the position we are now in.
The thing is, what do we do now, Scottie? You appear to be out of ideas and Mr. Dutton has discovered he has a handy second dose of Covid. Your world is cracking around you.
Delta Queen Gladys, just starting the results of your negligence and putting politics before voters health andlives.
NSW Health has recorded another 207 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours, which follows the 210 cases reported on Saturday and the 239 cases recorded on Sunday: NSW recorded 207 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. Of these locally acquired cases, 105 are linked to a known case or cluster, 92 are household contacts & 13 are close contacts, the source of infection for 102 cases is under investigation.
Eighty-nine cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 21 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Fifty-one cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 46 cases remains under investigation.
A 91 year old man has also died from COVID, taking total deaths this outbreak to 15.
There are currently 232 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 54 people in intensive care, 25 of whom require ventilation.
NSW now has around 3,000 active recorded COVID cases
At this rate, NSW’s lockdown will likely extend into September.
All those numbers look entirely manageable. Good for you.
Is there a plan Z because we will need it.
I’m not sure, but Morrison’s “asleep at the wheel” approach could be described as Plan ZZZ
Sorry Peter, I didn’t see yours earlier.
Well apparently there a plan zzzzzzzz…