There is no plausible scenario on offer from pandemic modellers that does not involve Australia either continuing to endure lockdowns and mandated mask-wearing and social distancing well into 2022, or tens of thousands of COVID cases a day and, at the very least, double-digit deaths every day.
Which of those scenarios is more politically palatable?
With the latest iteration of the national pandemic plan promising the commencement of reopening once 70% of the eligible population are vaccinated, most modelling suggests that will see huge numbers of cases, albeit with significantly decreased deaths and hospitalisations due to vaccination. Even the best-case scenario sees up to 10,000 new cases a day and 20 deaths.
Twenty deaths a day is a small number compared to other diseases, but COVID deaths have taken on a particular resonance both among the public and among politicians. And we already know that both governments and voters are very bad at being consistent when it comes to different, preventable causes of death — we have a huge tolerance for preventable deaths that fit within our concept of everyday life, like falls and motor accidents, but zero tolerance for other forms like terrorism that kill virtually no one.
Even with low death numbers, tens of thousands of cases will yield significant pressure on the hospital system and redirection of health resources to COVID patients, leading to poorer health outcomes than in a pre-pandemic context.
There’s no escape from this — not without economically enervating lockdowns that, by the third year of the pandemic, might be starting to pall on even normal, well-adjusted people. Politicians and the health officials that have been dragged into the spotlight with them need to prepare Australians for the kind of post-pandemic life being “enjoyed” in places like the US and the UK — widespread infection, hospitalisation and deaths, mainly among the unvaccinated, displaced health resources and a wariness about what the next variant might mean for mortality and transmissibility.
And all this will have to happen in the run-up to a federal election in which the government’s vaccination and quarantine performance are intended to be the central themes for an opposition now with more than a sniff of victory.
If you think the pandemic had already been politicised, wait until there’s 10,000 cases a day and we’re being told it’s fine, we’re going to reopen borders and end lockdowns and an election campaign is in full swing.
The divisions and arguments this year around quarantine, the botched rollout and the east coast lockdowns may end up seeming trivial by comparison.
Morrison is flailing about. Listen to his performance in Question Time today: when under pressure he uses inordinate mentions of ‘Mr Speaker’.
In his first response alone he spouted ‘Mr Speaker’ 27 (or was it 28?) times. It’s worth staying tuned to see if, while this rattled, he can break his personal best record.
35!! An all time record…
Yep he’s a headless pork barrel now.
Now scomo was all for lockdowns after all.
Silly me, I must have ” taken his comments out of context.
And he wouldn’t accept the premise of your question.
Yeah just amazing isn’t it.
”Josh Frydenberg admitted that quick action in the form of short sharp lockdowns “significantly” lessens the economic impact of Covid lockdowns.
This apparently has been the prime minister’s “point” (the prime minister was until very recently commending Gladys Berejiklian for resisting a lockdown, and his government resisted calls for financial assistance so as not to encourage states to go into lockdowns).”
.
Unless of course we move out of the neoliberal bubble favoured by Mr. Keane and others.
We are still a wealthy country. We could keep the lid loosely on, support everyone who needs it, regardless of ideology, and survive quite well until vaccinations reach 90% or more. We could exert some pressure on those who resist because they increase the harm on others: after all we insist people drive on the left and stop at red lights.
Of course we might demonstrate that we could structure the economy and its flow of rewards rather differently, being nicer to people and the planet in the process. That might threaten certain people’s hold on power, so we could expect them to be among the most selfishly resistant. (No I am not a card-carrying socialist. I actually think we could have tamed and managed markets,)
This idea won’t get any legs. Too sensible!
I’ve no confidence whatsoever in the Federal Government and there is a lot of anger out there for people who cannot get vaccinated, where there is inadequate supply, inadequate communication, lies and inconsistencies. At least Albanesenis acting with some foresight, a capacity sadly lacking in the Coalition. Their wasted public funds in pork barrelling, untended grants, JobKeeper handouts to highly profiled cooperations, ministerial handouts without accountability far outweigh cost in comparison to the incentive offered by Albanese which will stimulate the economy and be shared by all vaccinated unlike the billions going into privileged pockets by Morrison . Morrison has no idea, no imagination, loves only sticks and punishment like Robodebt and burdens placed on marginalised than anything that would be a positive encouragement to ensure a high vaccinate rate by December.
We can all be reassured as this is a military led civil on land top secret operation led by Covid taskforce commander Lt Gen John Frewen who was next to Scumbo to bolster our fear, I mean confidence, in the shambles that they’ll all inflicting upon us. Makes you get a bit anxious about the ASD from where Frewen came.