Millions of Australians could become infected and tens of thousands hospitalised with COVID-19 if we reopened Australia and let the virus run wild with 70% of the population vaccinated.
The national cabinet plan, released on Friday, would have Australia slowly reopen once 70% of over-16s are vaccinated. That’s 56% of the population. With no extra measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing, modelling by mathematician and Monash university adjunct professor Michael Georgeff shows cases would increase to 5 million and 27,000 deaths over time if the population received only the AstraZeneca vaccine. Other models show similar surges. Even with extra precautions, case numbers would reach massive peaks.
But high cases are something the vaccinated world will have to get used to. Instead it will have to focus on hospitalisations and case severity as a marker for success.
Unfortunately, the Delta strain has shown that even among vaccinated individuals, the likelihood of developing serious illness is higher than other strains, meaning Australia will have to look abroad and move slowly and carefully as it tries to return to normality.
What does the modelling say?
Georgeff’s modelling shows that with 56% of the population vaccinated with AstraZeneca, combined with precautionary measures, total infections would eventually reach 3.8 million, with 45,000 hospitalisations. This drops to 1.8 million and 300,000 for those vaccinated with Pfizer.
The modelling uses the reproductive value of the Delta strain, where each infected person will infect another five on average (although many models show it could be as high as six), combined with the efficacy of masks and social distancing which is expected to reduce transmission by 35%.
Similarly, modelling led by James Cook University shows that with no restrictions and a population where half the vaccinated people received AstraZeneca and the other half Pfizer, about one in three people would eventually become infected, with about 100 fatalities in every 100,000 people. The Grattan Institute has slightly different figures that show almost 27,000 peak daily cases and 15,900 deaths with 70% vaccination coverage involving limited precautions.
Accenture research, which Crikey has not seen, shows similar numbers. If 70% of the population was vaccinated, Australia could tolerate up to 10,000 new cases and fewer than 20 deaths a day.
Restrictions are here to stay
Head of the epidemiological modelling unit at Monash University James Trauer, who worked on the James Cook University research, tells Crikey the data showed herd immunity was likely to be off the cards.
“We will have large numbers of cases as we shift out of this elimination approach,” he said.
“When we get to that point, we should be looking less at case numbers and more at hospitalisations and deaths and the burden on the health system, but we are likely to have a large epidemic at that stage.”
This is exactly what other countries are experiencing. The UK is recording more than 1000 new cases a day and dozens of deaths, even with over 70% of the adult population vaccinated. Unlike Australia, much of the UK population has caught and recovered from COVID, giving them some natural immunity — although how long it lasts is unclear.
Georgeff says the data shows the importance of maintaining social distancing and mask-wearing: “Unless we get up to the 90% to 95% vaccinated level, we’re going to be wearing masks forever.
“We have to start accepting the fact that we will get 10,000 to 20,000 infections a day and just say, well, that’s going to be normal, as long as enough people are vaccinated.”
Precautions will be key to flattening that curve to ensure hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, he says.
Slow and steady wins the race
Walter and Eliza Hall Institute epidemiologist Professor Ivo Mueller is a little more optimistic: “I don’t think that you will see cases in hospital skyrocket because [the national cabinet’s plan] is a very gentle, very careful reopening.”
This is different from the UK where Prime Minister Boris Johnson ended laws mandating the wearing of masks and the enforcement of social distancing on July 20 in what was known as “Freedom Day”.
“It puts us in a completely unique position in the world because elsewhere in Europe or the US they’re reopening from the background of having had a huge catastrophe,” Mueller said.
“There, people are trading off a certain risk for more freedoms, whereas we have to trade off a certain increase in rates of freedom on the background of having had very little risk, and the suggested pathway forward is very carefully trying to manage that.”
A rush to get the vaccine rolled out doesn’t mean we should rush to jump off the cliff for some form of freedom that rides on the back of the suffering and death that very freedom will create..
Once we get to a high vaccination rate it is then easier to keep community transmission to zero with less restrictive measures. e.g Mask wearing, hygiene and proper quarantine. We should be aiming always for zero community transmission and especially during this early phase of Covid when there are still many unknowns about the future.
This is not Morrison’s approach though, he wants to let it rip just like he wanted to last year before we even had a vaccine.
“We should be aiming always for zero community transmission”
How would that objective hold up five to ten years down the track when COVID is just another disease endemic around the world? How long do we keep pretending that we can continue to be different?
And his partner in crime Killer Gladly reckons 70% of Sydney siders eligible to be vaccinated, should see her ease restrictions FFS that’s criminal negligence.
There’s no reason not to keep mask wearing as a socially responsible behavior whenever circumstances dictate – works just fine for Asian countries, and I notice they don’t need exemptions for their children, even toddlers have no problem with it. Bit sick of listening to the whining about the uncomfortableness of masks – a ventilator would be a lot less pleasant methinks.
Pity we can’t round up all the anti public health measure nutters and have them all living together enjoying their freedom to kill others and inflict suffering and misery, on some remote island.
Mike Seccombe in today’s TSP writes:
Contrary to the approach of other states, Berejiklian is not pursuing a return to zero cases. There will be no doughnut day. Her strategy is to open up and live with the virus. The numbers being watched will not be infections but hospitalisations and deaths. She hopes for some opening up by the end of this month and a broader opening up by October.
And this will ensure the rest of the nation is infected by the Delta Queen Berejikillthem
And why is she happy to see people die, get long covid, ruin their lives?
To appease some very important Liberal Party members and donors, primarily the grog, gambling and housing industry.
Clubs NSW, the AHA, the Property Council, and the building industry.
Regardless of what plan Morrison and Berejiklian cook up, you can guarantee one that is likely to increase COVID deaths and illnesses will be vigorously opposed by all states north of the Tweed, south of the Murray, and west of Broken Hill. And in the cases of isolated jurisdictions such as WA, NT and Tasmania, premiers will use every travel restriction in their well-stocked toolbox to keep their people safe.
Even SA Liberals appear to be have the welfare of residents in mind rather than their donors and business mates as per Killer Gladdly
Yes. I don’t even listen to the PM. So glad I live in Perth and know Mark McGowan will do his best to keep us safe.
Yes, the Coalition is devoted to their business sponsors and mates, stuff those whom they are supposed to be representing, that is the voters, it’s always been about money for conservative regimes.
Early last month, after a meeting of crisis cabinet, Hazzard told a media conference that NSW might never control the outbreak. According to ministerial sources, Treasurer Dominic Perrottet had argued in that crisis cabinet against the continued lockdown, saying the state would have to accept community infections….Mike Seccombe
Was the issue of “long Covid” included in the modelling. What will be the impact on the community, business and the hospital system of long covid? There is an economic impact and that does not appear to have been taken into account.
Oh the economic impact is taken into account by the Liberal and National Party, but not the one concerning lives and the health system which successive Coalition national disasters have dismantled bit by bit.
” Construction workers can go to work with only a single dose of vaccine. Business leaders have met with the premier to discuss similar provisions for office staff, in the hope of reopening the CBD. The lockdown has become a whack-a-mole strategy, imposing harder restrictions on certain local government areas only to see the virus take off in others.
“We will never get back to Covid Zero, if the strategies aren’t changed,” says Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, epidemiologist and expert in infectious diseases at UNSW Sydney. She finds it “perplexing” that the government had not listened to the science and employed more robust methods against the virus.
“You can’t keep employing the same strategies and thinking you’re going to get a different result,” she says.
“Today [Wednesday] is the 47th day of lockdown. We have had 5857 cases, and on average a death every second day. And I think this deserves a change in strategy, not giving up on this.”
A year ago, Berejiklian’s approach was widely accepted. Scott Morrison argued that Australia might have to learn to live with some community transmission, because lockdowns were so damaging to the economy. The same argument about economic cost was being pushed by the Business Council and other employer groups, and by many in the media, particularly the Murdoch media.”…Mike Seccombe
Murdering swine the Coalition state and federally
Millions of Australians could become infected and tens of thousands hospitalised with COVID-19 if we reopened Australia and let the virus run wild with 70% of the population vaccinated.
The national cabinet plan, released on Friday, would have Australia slowly reopen once 70% of over-16s are vaccinated. That’s 56% of the population.
With no extra measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing, modelling by mathematician and Monash university adjunct professor Michael Georgeff shows cases would increase to 5 million and 27,000 deaths over time if the population received only the AstraZeneca vaccine. Other models show similar surges.
Even with extra precautions, case numbers would reach massive peaks.
QT Parliament House has begun; with the Philippines sex bar addict who got caught out using taxpayers money to fly him to the airport every month, the LNP’s very own Member for Manila holding forth
Over in the House of Representatives, George Christensen, who is still a government MP, gave a 90-second speech on the ‘freedom protests’, which is a nice way of saying the ‘anti-lockdown’ protests and how he “won’t hesitate to stand with them again”.
This is the first QT Scott Morrison has been physically present for, since the G7 and since Barnaby Joyce became deputy prime minister again.