Even before the polls started to go bad for the federal government, ministers Christian Porter and Ken Wyatt faced a battle to retain their seats.
And now with the latest polls showing a 4% average two-party preferred gap between the Coalition and Labor, Porter’s seat of Pearce and Wyatt’s seat of Hasluck will be the centre of fierce campaigns.
This is because — whether the federal election be this year or next — it will be fought in a context where the WA Liberals have been rendered virtually voiceless in the state parliament and the electorate.
In the state election earlier this year, the party was reduced to only two seats in WA’s Legislative Assembly, the house that delivers government. The party was humiliated by the loss of leader Zak Kirkup’s seat and, even worse, formal opposition status going to the National Party.
With Labor now in control of both houses, Nationals Leader Mia Davies and Liberals Deputy Leader Libby Mettam may be like voices crying in the wilderness, but they are at least trying to take it up to the government, especially on health.
As for Liberals Leader Dr David Honey, he’s just off the radar.
The election not only delivered a whopping majority to Labor, it was also a massive endorsement of Labor’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Premier Mark McGowan — Mr 88% in the popularity stakes — has won the trust of Western Australians whereby they can lay claim to be living in one of the safest places on the planet in terms of COVID impact.
Voters support McGowan’s early/fast/hard lockdown policy whenever the virus pops up, and they support his hard border policy.
That means Western Australians enjoy total freedom, going about their business with no restrictions and travelling the entire length and breadth of the state from Esperance to Broome.
It also helps that the WA economy is booming, with the budget comfortably in the black and the rich resources sector a massive contributor to both the WA and national economies.
It is in this context that a prime minister who has demonstrated incompetence in managing the virus and the vaccination rollout will endeavour to save the seats of ministers Porter and Wyatt and other members, and stave off a potential electoral wipe-out.
And with a drastic reduction in the number of Liberal Party electorate offices, the lack of infrastructure, personnel and resources will add to the challenge. The corollary is that Labor’s abundant electorate offices will provide a formidable base from which to fight the election.
While Porter has an image problem to overcome, he also has the added problem of the boundaries of his Pearce electorate being changed, reducing his two-party preferred margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
Wyatt is slightly better off, with the proposed revision of boundaries in Hasluck delivering him 5.8%, up from 5.4%.
If anything like the WA election is replicated, those margins will be gobbled up extremely quickly.
To avoid this, the prime minister and his colleagues will be banking on the vaccination rollout in the west gathering pace through the rest of this year and into the next, to give them at least something to brag about.
In addition, the PM will have to seduce voters with lavish gifts and promises, no matter how outrageous, as well as campaigning at the top of his game.
Lawrence Apps is a freelance writer who has been a journalism educator at Curtin, Queensland and Edith Cowan universities.
The loss of Porter and Wyatt will be Karma. Wyatt is the last man standing from the infamous ‘Ditch the Witch’ photograph. While the others in the photo, including Mirabella, Roy, Abbott and Bishop have all lost their seats, Wyatt’s demise is long overdue. As for Porter’s karma, need I say more?
Wyatt also known as token Wyatt and Christlike Porter will not be missed.
Perhaps they could be made trade envoys?
Trade envoys, ambassadors, members of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal… the possibilities are endless, as is the generosity of the rewards for these plum sinecures. It’s the party’s proudest boast as it piles the tax-payer funded rewards on its many parasitical failures and rejects: No Liberal Left Behind!
I suspect that the new Labor government is not going to be using freshly dismissed LNPs for these positions
One would hope not. Let them approach Centrelink if nobody wants them.
That really would be karma…..unfortunately the independently rich, in most cases, will never understand how the “other side” try to live.
look into the deluge of executives from mining, banking, lawyers, business oligarchs into the disabilty and jobs provider sectors; all those same culprits who are in those positions of influence thought jeez kevin 07 mrs sold her disability business for a cool 167 mill?? I know it is amazing the Abbots mate has big interest in the biggest provider now; indentured labour and slave camps is where we will be and our work force major competitions will get free labour… there is an agenda. trust me I have done the research
They will not lack for highly paid sinecures.
Competence has never been a criterion.
Not to mention his using the passive voice to deflect blame for the destruction of Jukaan Gorge from Rio Tinto.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/traditional-owners-had-been-negotiating-to-preserve-sites/12299292
Pretty sure Crikey would prefer we not discuss CPs karma in any detail
Presumed innocence is still a remote possibility…an electoral thumping would be some measure of justice.
As well as Porter’s unfitness to hold office while rape allegations are untested, and his apparent abuse of the Attorney General position to nobble the so-called “free” press with AFP raids on newspapers publishing stories the Government didn’t like, there is the not small issue of roughshodding over Mark McGowan by supporting Clive Palmer in his $30 billion law suit against WA. Does Porter really think the WA public will want to vote for him after raising his middle finger to Mr 88%?
And what about Bernard Colloery and Witness K?
You left out robodebt.
Peter of PH, I’m from over east, but I very much doubt that WA voters will be forgetting Morrison and Porter supporting Clive Palmer’s attempts to deny border controls. In fact I hope Labor goes hard in its advertising on that issue. Seeing Porter voted out would give me considerable joy.
me too
Agree! It is still fairly fresh in our minds over here….
Isn’t this Porter fellow an alleged rapist?
Only “alleged” its up to a Court to decide on the evidence. Although it appears that PM Morrison shares in DPM Joyce’s belief of a higher Authority, and has pronounced his “judgement”.
However, and there’s always a “however”, I suspect many people don’t think he is a fit person to be deciding the future course of the Nation. Many have long memories of when he was the AG of WA and other circumstances.
Porter was simultaneously AG and Treasurer of WA. If anyone had been paying close attention to his performance it might have been enough to finish him, particularly his egregious blundering on state GST revenues which plunged the state finances deep into the red, but fortunately for Porter (and so many other ministers) lack of competence is wholly irrelevant in the world of Australian government.
No. no SSR – only irrelevant to LNP governments – Labor governments still have some integrity, competence and vision. And would have more if they could get the Murdoch Monkey off their backs…
I said competence was irrelevant. I never said it does not exist. The fact that a Labor minister might be competent and then get little credit for it – as you rightly say – actually confirms my point.
No great disadvantage in the Libs/Nats
Hopefully the blue firewall is breached, geez the deadwood in the federal libs is palpable. We cleaned them out in the state election time to do them federally.
Yes please, put those electoral offices to good use please, please, please.
Crikey said it well not so long ago
What’s become clear from the Christian Porter scandal is this: for the Morrison government, ministerial accountability requires no less than a criminal conviction.
https://uat.crikey.com.au/2021/03/05/christian-porter-scandal-scott-morrison/
So it’s up to voters to show some integrity