Do you remember that time an Iraqi journalist threw his shoes at George W. Bush’s head? That doesn’t happen every day.
Less well remembered is the context behind this incident. It was December 2008. Barack Obama had just been elected president. As a parting gift, president Bush flew to Baghdad to sign the Status of Forces Agreement that locked in the timeline for withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.
In 2011, as the clock ticked down on the final departure date, president Obama negotiated with Iraqi officials to leave a residual force for stabilisation and contingency purposes. The Iraqis did not agree. So America left.
When Islamic State emerged, the armchair warriors blamed Obama for the withdrawal.
It’s happening again in Afghanistan. Let’s take a quick recap.
In August 2001, Bush ignored intelligence warnings that al-Qaeda was preparing terrorist strikes in America.
Then came 9/11. A swaggering Bush declared the terrorists would “hear from all of us soon”. Three days later Congress voted for war. One lone congresswoman, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), voted against it, warning of the unknown consequences such action might unleash. She was vilified for her vote of conscience.
Bush gave the Taliban a choice. Surrender Osama bin Laden or face our wrath. They chose wrath. Operation Enduring Freedom swept them from power. However, bin Laden escaped.
Then Bush snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The Taliban offered to surrender and disband. Twice. Bush rejected their terms. Instead he turned his sights to a bigger prize and, fuelled by lies about weapons of mass destruction, led America and her allies to war in Iraq. The man who had once sneered at nation-building had changed his tune. He had the zeal of a convert. Plus, he had a score to settle with Saddam Hussein, “the guy who tried to kill my dad.“
As Iraq collapsed into sectarian chaos, everyone forgot about Afghanistan. 20,000 troops remained there to provide security, training and reconstruction support. Money and other aid flooded in.
Meanwhile, the Taliban regrouped and launched an insurgency. Supported by elements within Pakistan’s military, and funded by heroin trafficking, they gradually reasserted their control in rural areas.
Bush departed in 2009, bequeathing two bad wars to Obama. The generals told Obama that things were heading south fast in Afghanistan. They wanted more boots on the ground to turn the tide. Vice president Biden advised against it. He was in the minority. Obama agreed to a troop surge, on the condition that a rapid withdrawal would commence 18 months later, once the Taliban had been routed. Within a year 100,000 soldiers were fighting the enemy.
The generals’ strategy failed. The Taliban were depleted but never defeated. However, Obama did kill bin Laden. One mission accomplished. Obama had hoped to pull out of Afghanistan altogether by the end of his term, but was persuaded to leave 10,000 troops to backstop the Afghan government. The war dragged on.
President Trump called the generals “losers” and “a bunch of dopes and babies”. He wanted out of Afghanistan and he didn’t much care what happened after that. In February 2020, he cut a “peace” deal in Doha with Taliban leaders. Leaders he had released from prison after years in custody. He promised the Taliban that US forces would leave by May 2021, and released 5000 Taliban fighters. In return the Taliban promised not to kill any more US personnel.
There was no promise to stop killing Afghans. No commitment for the future rights and welfare of Afghan women. No pledge to facilitate an orderly exit of US citizens and their local allies. No guarantee of safe passage. No conditions attached to future economic aid or diplomatic ties. No plan at all.
Mr “Art of the Deal”, with his “I alone can fix it” bravado, folded like a cheap suit case.
The Afghan government was not party to the agreement, because Trump bypassed them. Then, with the ink not yet dry, Trump ordered Afghan leaders to agree a power-sharing settlement with their enemies. After he had traded away their leverage. As an incentive, Trump threatened to withhold $2 billion in US aid from the Afghans. Just like he did to Ukraine.
Why May 2021? Because Trump was aware that his Doha capitulation, and undermining of the Afghan government, might allow the Taliban to reclaim power. He didn’t want that to hurt his re-election prospects. If he won a second term, the blowback wouldn’t matter. If he lost, then his successor would inherit the failure. On May 1, a 100th-day-in-office present. Gift-wrapped by Trump.
When he did lose to Joe Biden, Trump accelerated his cut-and-run plan. After the election, but prior to the inauguration, he slashed the remaining troops to 2500. This was a skeleton crew barely sufficient to maintain security for the embassy and the Bagram military base outside the capital.
Trump also refused to share information with the incoming Biden administration during the transition. As we now know, he was doing all he could to prevent the transfer of power altogether.
Now we are being told that President Biden has failed. Urgent media reports reveal the desperation of Afghanis to flee the country after the Taliban’s rapid conquest. Their desperation is gut wrenching. Journalists, studio experts and political opponents all blame Biden for the chaos.
But Biden didn’t cause this. Bush had seven years to win the war he started, but could not. Trump sold out to the enemy. This is their mess.
No one reported at the beginning of August that the Afghan government was two weeks from collapse. Indeed Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation, insisted during a White House visit in late June that they weren’t going anywhere. They didn’t want any Afghans to leave either. No one reported on August 14 that Ghani, author of Fixing Failed States, was about to abandon ship and flee with suitcases stuffed full of cash. We have no idea where any of the other leaders went.
Afghanistan has 34 provincial capitals. On August 1 the Taliban held none. They captured their first, Zaranj, on August 6. Nine days later they had taken them all. It turns out they had used the safe harbour granted by Trump to negotiate with local and regional officials, and bribe their way back to power. No one reported this either.
The yardstick for Biden now is how the evacuation unfolds. If the US delivers a large scale airlift of US citizens and their allies to safety, that will constitute a success. The best of a miserable situation.
Despite the poor optics, Biden still has some cards to play. The Taliban want to portray themselves as reformed rulers, so they don’t revert to the international pariahs they were 20 years ago. With the US having funded 80% of the Afghan budget, and 90% of the population subsisting on less than $2 a day, they will need foreign aid to prevent economic catastrophe. And having won the war, they don’t need a final shootout with the US military to rain on their parade.
One thing is certain. If it were left to Trump to evacuate Afghans, he would leave them to die. He did precisely this with our Kurdish allies in Syria two years ago. They were slaughtered by Turkish soldiers and their proxies after Trump pulled out US special forces, ignoring the pleas of his own military advisers. Does anyone remember that?
So reserve judgment. A month from now, we’ll know whether Biden botched this final chapter or not. Either way, America has many lessons to learn as it winds down from two decades at war.
Thanks Keir – that’s as neat a summary of the whole can of worms as anything else I’ve seen.
Biden lost a game of Pass the Parcel and is now being blamed for all the wrapping paper on the floor.
Well said!
Hardly Biden’s fault and inevitable.Note we’re lacking in any worthwhile opinions of what should have been done instead, except for the implied suggestion that the US should have stayed …. forever?
I don’t see how that is implied, but there is a reasonably clear alternative in the article. The key bit:
Bush gave the Taliban a choice. Surrender Osama bin Laden or face our wrath. They chose wrath. Operation Enduring Freedom swept them from power. However, bin Laden escaped. Then Bush snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The Taliban offered to surrender and disband. Twice. Bush rejected their terms. Instead he turned his sights to a bigger prize and, fuelled by lies about weapons of mass destruction, led America and her allies to war in Iraq.
So even if it’s not quite explicit, the author is saying the USA should have accepted the Taliban surrender and gone home without involving Iraq. The USA would also, inevitably, have continued to hunt down Bin Laden and the rest of Al Qaeda. The results of any such counter-factual can only be speculated but it certainly looks like a far better strategy to me.
You’re alternative is certainly worth having been taken, but it it historical. Can’t go back now unless you have a de Lorean and a flux capacitor. DLs implied is the choice for the present, to leave, or stay forever.
Sorry, less YOUR alternative, more the authors.
Certainly the past cannot be changed, although Josef Stalin for one would not agree. However, DL said “we’re lacking in any worthwhile opinions of what should have been done instead“. That’s the past tense, so a counter-factual suggestion is exactly what DL was looking for, not a suggestion for what is needed now.
All very true, and well put. Will these considerations make it into any Murdoch papers or TV?
A good summing up. Biden’s in charge now & he should be judged on how he handles the inevitable. But he shouldn’t be a victim of the Perpetual Present whereby this whole catastrophe emerged from nowhere a coupla weeks ago.
But if “they” don’t blame “Democrat PotUS” Biden, that means attention could shift to those actually responsible – and that could prove embarrassing, not least to a lot of “legacies”?
It could even shift attention to the then “embedded press”, doing the PR donkey-work/propaganda, pro the war?
Someone had to come in and clean the shambles before the next “process”.
“History”? It’s not as though there’s going to be any learnin’ from this…. and how many politicians don’t want “war” on their re-election/distraction c.v?
Exactly, while our short term horizon media and voters fall for these transparent tactics repeatedly…..
Saw “Manufacturing Consent” by Chomsky at opshop. Always meant to read it. Today on SBS PBS hour there was a piece on Cambodia and the land mines littering the country. USA involved as well as kmer rouge and others. I’ll get the book even though printed around 1994 (?) – probably relevant today with concentration of media.