It’s taken 24 hours, and the emergence of some actual details, to realise just how awful a decision Scott Morrison has made to embrace nuclear submarines. It’s as if this government has a default setting of making the worst possible decisions when it comes to submarines.
A simple recitation of the facts of AUKUS will illustrate this. Morrison has:
- Torn up the existing submarine contract, based on majority-local build, five years and $2b-plus in, with a break fee of at least $500 million to come
- Gone back to square one with an 18-month study
- That study will examine how Australia will buy fewer subs, for even more money, most of which will be built overseas a decade later
- Those subs will require more than twice as many people to crew and a whole new industry to maintain, when Australia can barely crew its existing fleet
- Australia will have no option but to accept the least-worst option the study comes up with
- The country with whom the existing contract was signed was completely blindsided and holds the whip hand over a trade deal with Europe and the potential for carbon tariffs on Australian exports. It’s also a country we’ve been working hard to get more engaged in our own region. France is mortally offended and unlikely to forget being stabbed in the back by ourselves and the Americans.
It would have been straightforward to do this very differently: conduct the 18-month study of nuclear vessels in secret, present the results to Naval Group — a manufacturer of nuclear-powered submarines — and ask if it can match or beat it, injecting some competitive tension into the process, and not enraging the French who would have had a crack at retaining a subs contract. There’d have been no additional delay.
But as we’ve learnt about the prime minister, he’s all about announcements. Actual competent management is beyond him.
Somehow we’ve ended up locked into the outcome of an unknown process that will inevitably deliver a program worse than the existing one in every single way — cost, timing, local content, number of boats. The Americans or the British — most likely the Americans — can present us with whatever deal they like, confident we’re not going to refuse. We can’t go back to Naval Group in 2023 and ask it to revive the contract — not without a 20% hike in costs, total humiliation and a break fee with two extra zeroes on it.
Morrison will be long gone from politics by the time construction starts — in Virginia and Connecticut, not Adelaide — and safely beyond the reach of any political accountability. His successors, however, will be stuck with a decrepit fleet of Collins-class vessels filling in another extra decade.
Perhaps we can politely ask China to hold off on any further aggression for a couple of decades while we get our act together.
They’ll also be stuck with the problem of where to get more than twice the number of submariners in a shrinking employment market as the world population ages. The usual Liberal solution is to simply bring in more foreign labour sourced from developing countries, but that’s probably not workable aboard our prize nuclear-powered strategic assets. The government is already budgeting a cost of $1 million per migrant to bring the talent needed to maintain these vessels to Australia. And it can’t think of a way to pay for what will be a $100+ billion program without dramatically lifting immigration.
The press gallery reaction has been fascinating. Mainstream media journalists been almost completely taken in by the glamour of the announcement — don’t we love it when the Americans take notice of us — and missed the lack of substance and the managerial incompetence on display.
Earlier this year, on a very different issue — Morrison’s profound deafness on gender issues — where coverage was led by female journalists in the gallery, every Morrison announcement was regarded with scepticism and his tendency to treat every issue as a political problem that could be dealt with via a media release was placed under real scrutiny.
Yesterday, on an issue where coverage was led by male journalists in the defence, foreign policy and general politics rounds, they were almost as one entirely gullible. Boys and their toys?
Readers and audiences have been badly served. But not remotely as badly as taxpayers have been and will be for decades.
Morrison and his ilk are stocking the fires of conflict, they are totally out of depth ( whether in a nuclear sub or no) they are totally out of order.
They push China to the brink of retaliation along with insighting a conflict, all in the name of Right Wing ideologies.
Remember the Knight Crusaders against Muslims,it appears that this religious order of Insane fools wants to either tie us to the U.S and put another star on the U.S flag ( Australia) or is just totally so far bent on poking the tiger that it will create retaliation.
Dutton is over in U.S and cow towering to the U.S Military ( wanting permanent U.S bases in Aus) this insipid ball headed sycophant is and always/ has been wanting to exude some kind of authority, has been and remains a sad indictment of a sad out of touch Government that has no moral high ground, has so much dirty laundry it makes the Mafia blush, it is a dirty deceptive protagonist that hides behind others when it picks a fight it cannot win!
And the President of U.S.does not even know Morrison’s name.
I am trying to forget ‘the name’ but sadly cannot wipe the Smiko image from my memory.
If only it was just dirty laundry.
We need serious open investigations into all of their questionable dealings. Please journalists – get tough – get serious and take these fools to the people. Enough is enough.
Not whilst you got Murdoch minions crawling up to these poor sad excuses,not while SKY is so far to the right it is driving up the footpath
Meanwhile the PM for NSW and his Delta Queen of Death are enjoying good PR from the MSM. The Queen of Corruption gave her enforcer a big pay rise, Fuller was fuller of cash than before, but paramedics nothing
Paramedics in New South Wales are routinely being sent to treat Covid-19 patients being cared for at home who have unreported blood oxygen readings at critically low levels because state authorities have failed to deliver on a promise to distribute crucial monitoring devices…Rick Morton TSP
This is what it’s like for health workers to live with covid Berjiklian and Morrisin style
I blame the journalists as much as the pollies!
And rightly so.
But this Saturday Paper editorial knows exactly who is to blame for endangering our nation in a blatant electoral announcement for the forthcoming election of Scovid Mori$sinner and his demonic Coalition Party. Contrast this with the utter madness being spat out by the MSM
Morrison will agree to pay billions getting rid of it, for a submarine fleet that will be America’s and not ours. On Thursday morning he looked like Jack coming home with his magic beans and no cow, only he lacks the wit and courage to climb any beanstalks or kill any giants.
In May this year, Hugh White wrote a front-page story for The Saturday Paper. The former deputy-secretary of the Department of Defence, who wrote Australia’s Defence White Paper in 2000, warned that in its approach to China the Morrison government seemed “to have no idea how serious, and dangerous, our situation has become, and has no viable plan to fix it”.
White wrote that Morrison seemed to have no concept of the cost and risks involved in the escalating conflict with China. He warned that any war would place us in the greatest conflict since World War II.
“It would be a war the US and its allies would have no clear chance of winning,” White wrote. “Indeed, it is not even clear what winning a war with a country such as China means. And it would very likely become a nuclear war.”
This week has made that likelihood even greater.
We’re now being told by the Suboptimal Coalition Scovid Team of Liars that France is over reacting because there’s an election in the offing! Couldn’t make this up! Scovid of course wasn’t even thinking of his drop in the polls and being re-elected.
Moves for this outcome began in March.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/09/20/nuclear-submarines-sovereignty-pascoe/
Interesting article from the Michael West website
“Almost comical”. Experts lambast Scott Morrison’s “crazy” AUKUS deal to buy nuclear submarine tech from parlous UK and US programs. Marcus Reubenstein finds a real prospect Australia will be used to “underwrite” the foundering foreign submarine industry.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/has-pm-put-australia-on-the-hook-to-finance-struggling-uk-us-submarine-projects/
Putting the sub into sub-standard.
…we have locked in our defence policy with a country that was capable of electing Donald Trump as president, a country that could do so again, or even much worse. (I forget who it was who first opined that the next “Trump” will be smarter and therefore much more dangerous.) Michael Pascoe TND
Back in 2015 when he was just running with the other 17 Dwarfs it was obvious he was going to win the nomination and I was really hoping that he would pick Sarah Palin as Veep – Julia Louis-Dryefus & Tina Frey could have added several spas, swimming pools & wings to their mansions on the opportunities thus presented.
Imagine however if he were to run again with Ted Cruz – whom even his colleagues call the most miserable, deceitful & traitorous bastard in Congress.
That would by nukes au go-go, probably by Feb 2024.
What are ‘details’ when all you want is a distraction from “Porter’s Grief”?
Are some of us are being a bit hard on Scotty?
After all he is only in (and interested in) the advertising side of this firm – he doesn’t actually have anything to do with the managerial – “manufacturing” – side of what gets turned out?
Unfortunately, he snuck into the “CEO”s office while others weren’t looking and now he thinks he is running things…
… Yeah, into the ground.
That’s what his boss, uncle Rupert, wants him to think
A real look over here story, except the ramifications are huge. I thought peter hartcher was great on his handle on The Drum last night, not so much in the Age today.
Check out The Saturday Paper today an article by Hugh White and the Editorial, covers the whole Morri$sinner disaster for this nation as he wilfully destroys our future for his own election chances.
NO details needed, just another billions and billion dollar announcement, TSP Ed got it right….
Joe Biden may not have remembered Morrison’s name, but war histories will be forced to. He will be remembered as a smirking opportunist, eager to sign deals he did not understand, untroubled by the future because he was unable to comprehend it.
Labor, if it had any courage, would campaign to tear up this deal. It would refuse to take the country to war in exchange for a photo opportunity. It would continue a policy of balance, weighing relations between the two powers and governing in the interests of the country.
Morrison has given up on that route. The work it requires is beyond him. He has a handful of magic beans and an election to win.
That Fella Down Under! Scott Morrison’s AUKUS deal designed to win election, not make Australia safe
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/that-fella-down-under-scott-morrisons-aukus-deal-designed-to-win-election-not-make-australia-safe/
Scott Morrisin is every bit as dangerous and mad as Trump, and he has a fake medal to prove it.
This has been an onwater secret mission for many months. Happily though it was unleashed to cover another MOrrison scandal.
“Government policy is developed in nothing like a vacuum, whether it is privatising nursing home care, buying vaccines or flipping submarine policy.
The efforts to influence that policy are manifold, including seeding media coverage to suit.
It’s the competition of ideas and strategies and salespeople the public rarely sees.
That multifaceted competition has resulted in bipartisan support by our major political parties to increase the purchase of defence equipment that cements our loss of sovereignty, that leaves the operation of Australia’s two biggest defence programs beholden to a foreign power.
Our very expensive joint strike fighters only work with America’s approval and co-operation. Ditto now for the future submarines.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/09/20/nuclear-submarines-sovereignty-pascoe/
If it’s nuclear subs they wanted, why not just vary the contract with Naval to put nuclear propulsion into the French boats – just like France does with its own subs?
Because “Porter”?
I hear covid was caused by Porter himself. I also heard Porter killed JFK, but I’m still undecided on that one.
You’ve been on those conspiracy theory nutter sites again, stop it.
You missed one. The bastard also assassinated archduke Ferdinand
Yeah well Scovid Morrisin has just assassinated our nation; but will be re elected as per Michael West’s delightful description of the Maniacal Murdoch munks.
The cacophony among the screeching chipmunks at Sky News After Dark will be the most unbearable, albeit quaint and amusing for anybody equipped with common sense and a sense of humour. Their audience though will take it seriously. This is menacing stuff, stuff designed to win an election at the expense of good diplomacy.
How about the F35? Another fantastic purchase by the Howard Rodent gnawing Coalition
For Australia, the cost of those 72 lemons is $17 billion, before running into the hundreds of billions to be maintained for life, if they can fly.
We can only guess. I suspect the Americans have the capacity to surge production while the French do not. The naval yard in the US currently produces 2 Virginia class subs a year. They are looking to increase this to 3 a year. It takes about 2 years from construction start to commissioning a new sub. The Americans will be shifting production towards new variant of the Virginia, so there tends to be scale economies towards the tail end of a production run for a series block. I expect 2 announcements after the next Aust fed election. One – the American yards will produce an initial batch of subs (say 4) which can be received by the end of 2032. Second – Australia will lease US subs along with American trainers to assist in training up local crews. These are guesses.
Get a load of the picture that is the goon show; the threat to the world, usual 3 national buffoons of the axis of evil:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-19/australias-fate-tied-to-chinas-xi-jinping/100471778
Keating said it was a “further dramatic loss of Australian sovereignty”.
The US couldn’t beat the Taliban, he said — how could it win a war with China?
Keating asked if it is time Australia pursued an independent path.
It is a critical question as the world ponders the durability of America. Not for nothing has this been dubbed the “post-American world”.
America does not drive the global economy, China does. China will usurp the US outright as the world’s biggest economy by the end of the decade.
Yes, America is still the most powerful military and outspends China on defence. But Beijing is preparing for a different war — a regional conflict that China believes it could fight and win. It has a strategy to neutralise US sea power and drag America into a fight on China’s terms and territory.
Stan Grant ABC writes what the dangerous psychopath, the unhinged Trump medal wearing medal, biliously mentally ill cult following, corrupt Scott Morrison has done to our country and national diplomacy:
It isn’t just China.
Russia retains the second biggest nuclear arsenal on the planet.
Along with China, Washington nominates Moscow as its biggest security threat.
Russia and China have drawn closer.
And President Vladimir Putin has reasserted Russian power on his borders and into the Middle East.
Despite bolstering the so-called Quad — America, Australia, Japan and India — pushing back against China’s regional ambitions, Japan and India are still hedging. India remains close to Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modhi talks about their “enduring partnership”.
Russia has traditionally been India’s biggest weapons supplier. Apart from the Quad, India and Japan have pursued a “trilateral” relationship with Russia.
China and Russia have conducted joint military exercises with Iran.
China has close ties with North Korea and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed nations.
In Europe, nations are adopting a more selective and cautious approach to China. The European Union seeks to be what’s been described as a “third pillar” in the world, offsetting the US-China rivalry.
The think tank Chatham House, in a report earlier this year, said: “While the Biden administration has signalled it is keen to work with allies in ‘dealing’ with China, the EU has demonstrated a limited willingness to do so.”
There are obvious economic reasons. China has now overtaken the US as the EU’s biggest trade partner.
Meanwhile Snotty the Strawman runs wild with power unchecked, doing god’s work. FFS.
It looks like Morrison never gave the French any chance even to consider offering the existing nuclear-powered version of its subs, which pretty much proves bad faith by Australia.
The motivation, I believe, was his aching desire for a photo-op with his Anglo pals, Biden and Johnson. So much better as election propaganda than a selfie with Macron, so long as you don’t ask about the cost.
If we get invaded, who do you think will be coming to help? The french? Japan? The US is wanting us to be less reliant on them as being the worlds policeman is costing too much. That’s all well known and openly said by Washington. So by going to Vietnam, Iraq, Afganistan and by buying stuff like subs and old Sea Sprites we are effectively buying protection. You can’t see that? Then again maybe I have it all wrong and everything comes back to simply defending Christian Porter???
If you imagine the USA would do anything for any other country except when it helps the USA you are truly deluded. Kissinger summed it up nicely when he said the USA does not have friends, it only has interests. Running around the world after the USA to take part in its wars does not earn Australia anything. Buying its military equipment, particularly when we cannot maintain, repair or operate it ourselves, only makes us dependent on the USA and therefore more vulnerable.
So developing an independent defence capability does make sense, so long as it actually meets Australia’s needs. Spending well over $100 billion for a set of submarines that cannot possibly be ready for at least 20 years is a really strange way to go about it. An awful lot is going to happen before 2040 and the chances that these subs will have any relevance by then are vanishingly low.
Well said, Sinking Ship Rat. I couldn’t agree more. The US has never come to our defence out of altruism, and never will. How far will Australia become even more of a base for the US in south east Asia, what form will this take, and how might this affect our relationships with our neighbours.?
The American ruling class despised 95% of their own citizens so what chance do a bunch of begging and slavering “British rednecks down under” have?
Strawman, if the Orange Obscenity or one of his acolytes get back in the White House all bets are off.
There you go again, linking all of this to Porter. QAnon is not good for your IQ
As far as Scovid’s concerned it gets Porter out of the light and back behind the scenes.
They both do their best work in the dark.
Essentially what Morrison and Dutton are doing is making Australia indispensable to US interests, so that if the Chinese attack Australia (as if – such a stupid idea geo-politically), then they will de facto be attacking US interests.
Yeah, the chance of China attacking us is virtually zero – unless we do something stupid like attacking them first, which is fairly likely with the bunch of clowns in Canberra ruling us at the moment. If they look like losing an election, all bets are off.
Less indispensable than useful as a constant prod – as were the US troops in postWWII Germany, just enough to irritate and threaten but insufficient even for the putative Fulda Gap nonsense.
Ideal as a casus belli though, as Lord Melchett said to Darling in Blackadder Goes Forth – “We need a futile sacrifice“.
I can see Darwin being ideal, used as a distraction and lure – a shell game with nukes .
I do not know the words to the American National Anthem, barely know the words to our own National Anthem. Mind you America does have a bill of rights and a constitution and mayhaps if we were to be another addition to there flag then Morrison and his ship ( submarine) of fools can be inducted for creating disharmony, distrust in the country!
Also the French have decided to pack there bags and leave Australia ,who needs enemies when you have Morrison?
indicted * not inducted
Seriously, if even the French find ones dealings venal and tainted, “Problem, there is a Houston” – less an hefferlump in the room than a mushed mass of manure.
I’m reminded of Michael Knight & the US showband – “so, sue me.”
They did and won, bigly.
Listening to Birmingham on Inciters this morning reminded me that Sen. Wong called that excrescence “…a friend and someone I can work with.”
She lost me the day she said that, late in her Ministerial daze.
This was confirmed with her subsequent voting against SSM free vote at the last ALP conference the Gillard minority government, by common consent one of the better, rather than simply least worst, administrations.
Evs, as the kiddies say.
Apparently.
The last time a major Australian political party professed independent foreign policy was 18 years ago when Labor, led by Simon Crean, opposed involvement in the Iraq invasion without a UN mandate.
Since then, “sovereignty” has been little more than a word used to talk up national security fears. And fear sells.
Who sold the nuclear submarines – and our sovereignty?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/09/20/nuclear-submarines-sovereignty-pascoe/
Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine policy was not an immaculate conception. Put another way, submarines are not just bought – they are also sold.
Coverage of our botched and bungled defence spending – culminating as it has in multiple diplomatic failures, writing off billions of dollars on French submarines and announcing open cheques for British and American manufacturers – has tended to treat the latest sorry saga as if it was all Scott Morrison’s idea.
A moment’s thought about Mr Morrison’s skill set and that of the Coalition’s revolving door of defence ministers should put that to rest.
Whether it’s a federal contract for photocopying machines or submarines, there are armies of salespeople and lobbyists at work. And navies of them, too.
Who’s going to invade us? China? Not a chance. Indonesia – possible, but unlikely, and only the top end and northern WA anyway. Russia – conceivable, but why would they bother? New Zealand? We can only hope! 😀
I, for one, would welcome our Aotearoan Overlords, even with their depleted vowel range.
If we get invaded, my guess is whoever has strategic intelligence-gathering assets in Australia will come to make sure that Pine Gap and North West Cape stay in friendly hands.
I’m sure that was the motivation, an announcing and a photo with both of them to boost his failing ratings
Of course. That’s all anything’s ever about with Scummo. Marketing. He probably thinks sticking a finger up at the French will get him votes, however he could be wrong about that – we’re not the US.
One big reason will be the differences in reactor technology. The US and UK reactors are sealed units. They run without needing to be refuelled for the 30 year life of the boat. The French reactors require refuelling every 10 years or so. A plug, play, and forget reactor can probably be supported without a domestic nuclear industry. One that requires refuelling? Not a chance, we’d need a civilian nuclear capability a little more involved than Lucas Heights.
From my reading I understand the French subs ordered were nuclear powered and the French redesigned them for diesel to suit Australia! The sale is in full frenzy now with the MSM saturating the media with why this is a great idea of Scovid Scumbags
There is a bigger picture here. The USA has been planning its whole of world approach for sometime. A major part of this is the prepositioning of equipment around the world. this is to save time and cost in case of sudden action being required.
There antagonist will not necessarily be China, although it provides a convenient cover at this time.
The small print which included the news of more troops, aircraft and ships visiting or being located in Australia from time to time was nor commented on by the media.
Australia has gradually improving its bases, particularly in the Northern Territory for some time, including increasing capacity for larger items than Australia has in its inventory.
Back in the 1970 some of us worked hard to stop the Liberal party introducing nuclear missiles into the country, stopped at State Area Conference level.
There are more changes coming to allow the USA control over how weapons and equipment can be used by Australia.
You need also to look at the 4000 odd pages of Security/Police laws introduced by the Coalition in the last decade or so.
Australia is like the frog in the pot of water on the stove, its heating up gradually, but we don’t notice the slow rise in temperature.
War with Chine will most likely be over before these submarines are operational, and the 72 F35 aircraft are weaponised and operational, that’s if the USA gives us missiles etc to arm them. I wonder how these aircraft will reach China ?
perhaps if this stupidity continues, the late Nevil Shute can be asked to write the sequel to “On The Beach”, perhaps called “All The Way With The USA”, only a few names and dates need to be changed.
As an ex serviceman I fully support Australia’s Armed Forces but not in this way.
;
Contrary to all the reporting, the British and American governments won’t be selling Australian nuclear-powered submarines.
They’re merely allowing us to buy them from various very large, very rich and very influential private companies.
BAE Systems, for example. It’s a company so embedded in the Australian government that it doesn’t even bother to employ a lobbyist – or at least it doesn’t show up as a client of a lobbyist on the government’s
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/09/20/nuclear-submarines-sovereignty-pascoe/
It has been in BAE’s interest – along with that of its American partners such as Northropp Grumman – to suggest Australia would be better served by having nuclear-powered submarines than the diesel-powered we supposedly thought superior just a few years ago.
For the Anglo-American arms salespeople, the French Naval Group is the enemy.
If a diplomatically hapless American client state [Morrisin’s Coalition]can be convinced to kneecap Naval’s biggest international contract, that is winning a sales war.