Emails released under freedom of information laws showed Health Minister Greg Hunt didn’t sign a contract with Pfizer for COVID-19 vaccines until months after he was first contacted by the company’s representatives on June 30.
They suggested Australia act fast, with millions of doses to be available at the end of the year. But in a “not a race” approach, Australia didn’t sign a deal until November, five months later.
Had Australia secured a deal in July — when the UK finalised its — what impact would it have had? Modelling by Monash University adjunct professor Michael Georgeff, a mathematician and leading Australian expert on artificial intelligence and health technology, shows New South Wales would be coming out of lockdown with more than 100 lives saved.
What are the assumptions?
Georgeff modelled two scenarios. In the first, he assumed 10 million extra Pfizer doses would have arrived and been split across states based on population, with 32% distributed to NSW. Assuming all doses were administered by the beginning of August, he found by the end of August the reproductive rate of the Delta variant — how many people the average infected person spreads the virus to — would have dropped to less than one.
“The model shows we would end up with about 20% of the cases that NSW has had to date without Pfizer — an 80% reduction,” he said.
“The NSW lockdown would still have been necessary but daily cases would have never exceeded 150 per day and total cases to September 8 would be about 6000 instead of 32,000.”
About 10% of those who caught COVID since the June outbreak have been admitted to hospital, about 20% of whom end up in ICU.
If Pfizer had been available, hospitalisations would be about 80% less than now, with fewer than 600 people hospitalised instead of 3000. Because of the difference in efficacy between AstraZeneca and Pfizer at preventing serious illness, these numbers would probably have dropped slightly further. The model doesn’t look at differences in age groups.
About 120 patients would have ended up in ICU instead of more than 500.
Deaths too would have dropped. There have been 222 deaths from the 43,779 cases, meaning fatality is at 0.47% in this latest outbreak.
“Under the modelling and with the assumptions made, the lack of Pfizer has resulted in up to 150 needless deaths to date,” Georgeff said.
Even if Pfizer uptake was slower and all doses were in arms by the beginning of September, case numbers and hospitalisations would have dropped by 65% and 120 lives saved.
Applying the model to Victoria showed it wouldn’t have escaped its sixth lockdown, but it would have ended now with a similar reduction in infections and hospitalisations. There is a chance limited infections in NSW would have meant the Victorian outbreak may have never happened.
Missed opportunity
Monash University epidemiologist James Trauer looked at the modelling and says the assumptions stacked up.
“These seem reasonable or even conservative,” he said. “It is likely that Pfizer has a greater effect on onward transmission and is likely to substantially reduce the reproduction number for those who receive the vaccine.”
Most if not all the nine people who died in Victoria may have even been spared, he says, with at-risk people vaccinated before the outbreak hit. But the modelling did not take into account restrictions being eased earlier in response to the lower infection rates, which could have caused a surge.
“The flattening of Sydney’s epidemic recently and the failure of the virus to take hold in several intermediate-risk settings (like regional towns in NSW and Victoria) is attributable to protection through vaccination,” he said.
“We missed an incredible opportunity to be protected before these outbreaks occurred, which would have averted the need for these most recent lockdowns. They are really the lockdowns we didn’t have to have.”
The gross ineptitude of the federal government in handling the pandemic has been rivaled only by the comatose performance of the ALP throughout this debacle.
There is some some merit in staying out of the limelight while your opponent is making an ass of themselves however taken to extreme, it can provide an opponent an opportunity to take control of the narrative and reframe it. This is currently what is happening. By the time the election rolls around our Scotty will be spruking the new submarines and blaming the kill joy state premieres for not scrapping the remaining pandemic restrictions.
Morrison government literally has blood on its hands
As does his partner in death Gladys Berjiklian, for both it is their second time around after what they unleashed upon the nation last year too. They care not for those who vote for them but they do care for those who have paper bags and comfy armchairs; and it is to them we are being sacrificed. The cries of learn to live with covid no matter what the cost from farmers, growers, hospitality, universities, airlines, cruise ships, small business are deafening; they want their cheap foreign labour/students back and they want it now. And we are expendable along with the exploited foreign visa holders and backpackers and tourists.
The national plan touted by the prime minister and New South Wales premier Gladys Berejiklian assumes there would be just 30 daily cases when restrictions are lifted at 70 and then 80 per cent of vaccinations of those aged 16 and older in the population.
These targets still only account for 56 to 65 per cent of the whole population and leave plenty of room for the virus to spread without a range of restrictions being kept in place. They also risk the testing and tracing systems being overrun, as they are at present….Bongiorno
Epidemiologist Professor Raina MacIntyre, [no not the on the make university academic and NSW Health Department funded “expert” Catherine Bennett] writing in The Conversation, says work done by her team at UNSW Sydney estimates the 70 per cent target may be reached in the state by October 18, but the case numbers will still be in their thousands.
The Indian variant Morrisin and Berjikjlian have let loose here and in NZ is itself a tangible manifestation of Modi’s venal craven all consuming corruption, where he provides no adequate health system, gross callous ruthless government indifference, amorality, incompetence and seedy corruption.
If NSW produces its own variant it should be called the Scovidijiklian variant in honour of its two utterly craven and corrupt creators.
The Modi Indian variant in Australia:
…”spreads days faster than the time taken to benefit from vaccine immunity, which takes two weeks after the second shot for optimal protection.
It is also becoming apparent around the world that the current vaccines are not as effective against Delta, because of waning immunity and the fact they are not exactly matched to the strain.
In Britain and the United States their governments are talking of booster shots and ordering millions of doses; we can only hope that the Australian government has learnt the bitter lesson of its earlier complacency in this regard.”
What are your thoughts on 1st world nations buying up booster shots when most of the third world hasn’t received its first dose? If supply is limited, who should get priority?
Given Crikeys progressive political stance, I’d presume most commenters would be against Australia buying more than it’s fair share of vaccines.
Suggested Crikey headlines “Morroscum wants poor countries to suffer”, “Scotty From Marketing snatching vaccines from dying women in African – a racist and misogynist!” “Scumo gives 70% of vaccine to Christians!”.
All governments are guilty of spending money on the wrong things. There are Wants – things like a big parliament house, F35s, subs, adverts – and there are Needs. Needs are things like social housing, remote and aboriginal health and education, safety for DV victims, fixing the disability insurance scheme, and so on with a list as long as your arm. When politicians spend billions, tens of billions and hundreds of billions of OUR MONEY on what they want, ignoring our needs – like somewhere to live, adequate food, safety, good education for kids and so on – it makes me sick. It beats me why we can’t all see this and just pull the rug out from under the bastards. But no, we keep voting them back in. Jesus! Poverty is not a natural thing! Fix it!
How much effect did the scare-mongering about AZ have on slowing the vaccination rate?
Interesting…As a senior i got ‘the clot ‘ AZ one ..It was there ( risk/benefit factored in ) & i try to avoid hospitals like the plague & the idea of help clogging up/damaging the health care system/staff endangering, etc, didn’t appeal..Some fellow seniors i know, told me they’d rather die & will wait for the Pfizer to appear on the horizon….I said well good luck to you ..you might die/get seriously ill or/& you might help kill/ill injure someone else or not…decisions..decisions…
Any senior who understands basic statistics wouldn’t hesitate
Would not hesitate? Well s/he might when s/he looks at what is going on in Israel.
Kim Iversen is an US political commentator who has been following Covid data of various countries, namely also of one of the most vaccinated ones: Israel. The newest data (after two jabs and a booster shot) she calls”shocking and alarming”:
https://ugetube.com/watch/israel-039-s-alarming-data_2Lt1Nb3MXf8b1dt.html?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_0GLoQAUWbmD6FiBnz03BmRGPZJQt4a2sR1wL_NMYPzo-1631947449-0-gqNtZGzNAlCjcnBszQel
Good on you Rosella. As Woopwoop says, any numerate person would. Also a great policy to avoid hospitals like the plague. They are hugely professional and as good as any in the world, but iatrogenic illness/injury is a real thing. They are dangerous places.
Why go near a place full of sick people?
What you are missing, Rosella, is that at the time Pfizer was offered by the manufacturer to our PM, all the vaccines were “on the horizon” virtually, but the AZ had already displayed this rather nasty “death” side effect. It still does. Pfizer has not and still does not. We could have had it much, much sooner, like others who DID take up the option and not had the deaths we have had. Don’t make excuses for our PM’s strange choices.
Nothing to do with wanting to do the job on the cheap – A/Z is provided at cost approx. $5@ whereas Phizzer is more like $20-30, as well as the alleged storage expenses, though I note that the optimum -70C has been reduced to -20C or an Esky of dry ice.
So all those leftover, about to expire shots to come and save us from Poland,Portugal & Bulgaria are certain to have been stored correctly.
Bingo. Our media industry is responsible for many of the covid deaths. It was their focus on selling newspapers/subscriptions thru partisan political point scoring, and by amplifying concerns about AZ, from anti vacs, and about lockdowns etc that has significantly contributed to where we are now. Sure the states and fed politicians made mistakes, lots of them, but the media needs to be held to account as well.
Lets not forget in the usual Crikey haste to smear the LNP any way possible, Australia has the second lowest level of deaths in the OECD. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-australia-health-minister-defends-national-response-as-nsw-victoria-outbreaks-grow/XFOQ3QWNR5ZJ5MFBKCN3TGR474/ Would Crikey like to comment on
that?
Maybe we could have been lower than NZ if the Feds didn’t f*ck up aged care last year.
So we are squabbling over first and second place are we?
The Australian people are certainly facing peril and many a misfortune they did not bring on themselves. The prolonged lockdowns through which we are struggling were triggered by incompetence more than bad luck – and then made more desperate by the withdrawal of the financial support offered last year, as if the worst of the pandemic was over.
The false hope is now being peddled by a road map to reopening that presumes levels of infection containment that frankly are a pipedream….Paul Bongiorno
Last place in fact.
So if I’m understanding you correctly, the whole covid situation in Australia is almost entirely the fault of the federal LNP? The media, the state govs, failure of oxford vaccine, anti vaxs, human nature, state and international parochialism… they weren’t significant causes. Just the fed LNP?
Pretty much.
Without question Woopwoop, the reporting had a serious negative effect, and Facebook and other outrage-algorithms just amplified it.
But that also diminishes ScoMo and Hunt’s accountability for not having choice of vaccines for the innumerate and selfish.
Never mind, think of the next Coalition failure to be unleashed on citizens in NSW and SA
NSW will trial home-quarantine in a bid to rapidly scale-up international arrivals: aka cheap foreign labour and foreign students.
The test run, announced by the state government on Friday, involves 175 vaccinated people quarantining at home for seven days, monitored by geolocation and facial-recognition technology.
If successful, it is expected the NSW government would move to rapidly scale-up the program to allow many more international arrivals.
Hotel quarantine arrangements would remain for unvaccinated people under the plan.
The Business Council of Australia has welcomed the plan…
NO shi* , no surprises given that is to whom Morrisn and Berjiklian answer and not Australian voters.
Were those words from a journalist or an LNP press release?
There is possibly another reason why Australia was at the back of the CONGA LINE FOR VACCINE ORDERS. It is apparent that the whole health dept underwent 3 substantial reorganizations from June / July 2020 when Brendan Murphy replaced Caroline Edwards as Dept Secretary. Again in December 2020 where an internal vaccine task force of 4 people was added and large of job reallocations. Then again in July 2021 to set THE PENTECOSTAL’S marketing exercise OPERATION COVID SHIELD. I think this may be part of the reason why the department’s response was late also. People were changing roles and leaving which indicates a department in turmoil and a lack of clear leadership from the minister and secretary.