When reporting COVID fatalities, Australian governments almost always include the disclaimer that the victim had pre-existing health conditions. Some argue that has an unfortunate side effect of inadvertent victim-blaming, but there are two genuine reasons why noting pre-conditions is crucial.
First, COVID-19 is a very targeted killer. The recent Australian Institute of Health and Welfare report into the virus found that 73% of deaths were among people who had pre-existing chronic conditions (not to be confused with causal events listed in their death which could include pneumonia, respiratory or renal failure).
Someone with chronic pre-existing health conditions has a vastly higher risk profile than a healthy person. Someone who is over 70 and has pre-existing conditions has higher risk still. Reinforcing the risk around pre-conditions acts as a constant reminder to anyone with any to urgently get vaccinated if they are able to.
Second, by noting that most deaths occur for those with comorbidities, it also puts the actual risk for everyone else into much better perspective.
Although the death rate for an unvaccinated, unhealthy 80-year-old in aged care who contracts COVID is upwards of 50%, the death rate for those under 30 is low. In Australia, just five of the more than 1100 COVID deaths have been in people aged under 30. South Korea has recorded even fewer deaths among the young.
Remarkably, in the UK during the first six months of this year, of the 51,281 COVID-19 related deaths, only 63 were in vaccinated people who weren’t classified as “extremely vulnerable”.
This is highlighted by the difficulty in determining when someone dies of COVID or dies with COVID. As AFR journalist John Kehoe pointed out: “In Sweden, doctors in the county of Östergötland analysed all their COVID-19 deaths. COVID-19 was the chief underlying cause of death in just 15% of cases. In 70% cent of cases, COVID-19 was an associated cause of death. In the remaining 15% of the deaths, it was irrelevant.”
Similarly, one preprint study found almost all the instances of children dying with COVID in the UK occurred in children who had multiple pre-existing conditions or complex disabilities such as rare inflammatory syndromes. This does not make those deaths any less tragic but rather indicates that the risk of healthy children dying due to COVID is extremely low.
Given the relevance of pre-existing conditions, those favouring strict elimination policies made another argument: “Sure, COVID-19 tends to mostly kill people who are already sick, but really, lots of people are sick, so we can’t be too careful.”
Grattan Institute head and leading COVID-zero advocate Stephen Duckett claimed 40% of Australians have conditions that put them at risk. He sourced his data from the ABS national health survey.
But this claim isn’t quite true: 47% of Australians have chronic conditions, but almost half are attributed to mental and behavioural conditions. Genuine COVID risk factors such as diabetes, cancers, vascular disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease affects about 15% of Australians (and many have multiple of those pre-existing conditions, so the unique number of at-risk people is likely to be far less).
Obesity, which affects 31% of Australians, is also a risk factor but is categorised as a health risk factor instead of a chronic disease, and cause risk-factor illnesses like diabetes and heart disease.
To claim 40% of the population is at risk would require including other chronic conditions like back problems, arthritis, asthma or mental health, which do not contribute to COVID’s fatality risk. Knowing which conditions increase risk is also important and easy to get wrong.
Pointing out that a COVID victim has a pre-existing condition does not diminish the tragedy of their death. It does, however, put into perspective the restrictions being placed on the healthy.
We must protect the vulnerable, in particular, through vaccination. But if someone with pre-existing conditions chooses not to get vaccinated, using their death as a reason to deprive children of an education, lock domestic violence victims in with their abusers, or separate kids from their parents becomes a far tougher sell.
Covid 19 deaths issue isn’t just about the death, it’s about the dying. The dying which often involves putting pressure on the health system everyone relies on. People, who, until their heart attack, stroke, car crash, cancer diagnosis, are ‘healthy’. We all live with a first world expectation that when the unimagined crisis strikes we get a bed, even a very expensive high-tech ICU bed. But, as New York, and many European countries showed us in 2020, Covid doesn’t buy into that expectation. Protecting the health system, for everyone, remains a key goal, or should.
People get hung up on the death figures and conveniently forget those who get sick, go to (and stay in) in hospital, and those in ICU. This is before you even get to ‘long COVID’. It’s definitely not just about the death.
Given Adam Schwab would have had no lockdowns this whole time, leaving every person with health conditions exposed to the entire pandemic, his concern-trolling now is a joke. The man’s a ghoul.
Worse than a ghoul, a psychopath more like it
Very clever reply Gonna !
Thanks Alan, good to know that only people like me are likely to die while everyone else can get on with spending money in selected businesses.
I should point out, I have been vaccinated but my pre-existing condition means the vaccine is unlikely to provide normal protection. I don’t want the whole of society shut down to protect me, I want to know we are at least being considered in public health measures.
Vulnerable people can still catch covid from vaccinated people and they will still die if not protected.
The common cold (a corona virus) doesn’t kill people, right? What it does is weaken a person’s constitution enough to allow an advantageous bacterium such as pneumococcus to take hold. Pneumonia is a killer. My dad who has asthma as an “underlying health condition” almost died from it when I was young. In my 2 decades working in aged care I’ve seen it too often.
It’s always the young and healthy people bringing in these viruses, threatening the vulnerable.
How many unnecessary deaths are acceptable for those who want to throw open the floodgates? It’s no argument to tell their relatives that “everyone dies” or “if it wasn’t this it would’ve been something else that killed them”.
The lack of caring in this society leaves me gobsmacked and feeling ashamed to be part of it.
Sorry to be pedantic, Zeke, but the Common Cold is primarily caused by either Rhinoviruses or Adenoviruses. Coronaviruses are the cause of current and past SARS outbreaks.
“This is highlighted by the difficulty in determining when someone dies of COVID or dies with COVID.”
Which is why this statement is such crap. Nobody effectively dies from Covid, they die from lack of oxygen, from heart disease, from brain clots etc. All caused by Covid mind you. The differentiation of dying with Covid and dying from Covid is a chimera, a straw man.
But politically sine qua non, the better to manage perceptions.
Our 40% number was defined as follows (as stated in our Report):
‘Risk factors’ are any factors identified by the Department of Health as having higher risk of ‘severe’ or ‘moderate’ complications from a COVID-19 infection. The list includes several health conditions, being over 70 years of age, and being an Indigenous Australian