After a sluggish start, Australia’s vaccination rollout is surging. With over 90% of the adult population in New South Wales and the ACT having had at least one dose, and Victoria moving at a rapid pace, we are on track to become one of the most vaccinated countries.
But there are still pockets, particularly in regional Queensland, where vaccination rates are lagging the national average. And many of the local government areas with the worst vaccination rates fall in marginal seats that will be key battlegrounds at the next election.
The regional Queensland problem
Just 25% of the adult population in the region of Isaac is fully vaccinated. Only 40.8% have received a single dose. The LGA lies in the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, a blue-collar mining seat that, despite a huge swing to the Coalition in 2019, has always been a target for Labor.
Capricornia, along with Flynn, Dawson, Herbert and Leichhardt, make up a rump of electorates in central and north Queensland where the opposition was hammered in 2019. In each of these seats, vaccination rates are lagging well below state and national averages.
Rates are particularly low in regional LGAs, including areas like the central highlands in Flynn, where 52.7% have had their first dose, and 37.1% are fully vaccinated, and Whitsunday in Dawson, where 61.4% have received one dose, and 38.7% are fully vaccinated.
But they’re also low in key regional centres in these electorates, most of which have fewer than half the eligible population fully vaccinated. In Rockhampton, the main town in Capricornia, less than 50% of its population has received two doses. The same is true of Gladstone, the largest town in Flynn, Mackay in Dawson, and Port Douglas in Leichhardt.
How many anti-vaxxers does it take to swing an election?
As Australia’s rollout sped up, vaccine hesitancy fell to a record low of 15% across Australia in mid-September. But Queensland leads the country on hesitancy, at 20%. And while that number will probably continue to drop, there’s some evidence to suggest the “hesitant” vote could start to matter in bellwether seats.
In Dawson, outgoing MP George Christensen is one of Parliament’s most prominent peddlers of conspiracy theories around COVID-19 and vaccinations. And the Liberals won those seats so handsomely in 2019 thanks in part to preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party.
Christensen retained his seat on a storming 11% swing that was driven by a huge 13% bump in One Nation’s primary vote. In Capricornia, a 16% primary increase for One Nation made Michelle Landry’s marginal seat relatively safe. In Flynn and Leichhardt, Clive Palmer’s UAP got the biggest increase in primary vote.
Both One Nation and UAP are pitching themselves as the parties of anti-vaxxers. Pauline Hanson refuses to be vaccinated, and rages against vaccine mandates. UAP leader Craig Kelly — whose Sydney seat of Hughes has some of the highest vaccination rates in the country — has repeatedly spread misinformation around vaccines.
UAP is teaming up with Reignite Democracy Australia, the largest anti-lockdown group, a move that will increase their funding and political clout. Clive Palmer, consistently the country’s biggest political donor, showed in 2019 how much his money and advertising can sway an election without actually winning any seats. Meanwhile, polling from Essential found 23% of respondents who don’t intend to vote for a major party do not plan to get vaccinated.
Anti-vaxxers might be shrinking in Australia. But in an election that could turn on a handful of marginal seats, the votes of the hesitant, and their preferences, could really count.
If anyone thinks Labor can win seats in regional Queensland that require swings of over 6 per cent (whether vaccination is an issue or not), I admire their optimism. Capricornia is on 12.4 per cent, the government’s 45th most marginal seat. If Labor can win seats on those margins, Albanese will be thinking of what suit to wear to his swearing in. (I suggest authoritative navy.)
Years of being conned into thinking that Queensland would deliver for federal Labor have left me beyond sceptical. The story always ends the same way. The champagne stays in the fridge and the scotch bottle gets a solid workout.
The champagne stays in the fridge and the scotch bottle gets a solid workout. Worthy of David Williamson himself!
Exactly! The election can be won in Victoria, SA, WA and Tassie. Why bother with regional Queensland? Why must the whole nation be held ransom by a small minority who are never happy with anything they’re given by the big two.
Dead right focus on WA in particular and with the help of the independents funded by Holmes a’ Court in Victoria and NSW.
The type who don’t know what they really want and won’t cease whining until it is given to them.
On a silver platter.
If only because then they’ll be able to complain that it is the wrong size or colour or style.
Campbell Newman got thrown out with large swings. I would probably just work on a couple of seats like George Christensen’s as there will be a new candidate. Focus on the deaths in NSW etc.
With that level of hesitancy and reticence, what do you do? These people are digging in and have politicians supporting their view. As Morrison is incapable of actually leading and pulling his MPs into line, I suspect these bad numbers will continue.
However, it’s likely Covid will eventually hit these regions and cause a mini-pandemic there.
Hi Rob. Morrison has no interest in leading on the issue of vaccinations. The anti-tax vote will go to him through the UAP, PHON and others. Some Labor votes will be siphoned off that way. It is in Morrisons’ best interests to not lead on the issue. (A true Christian concerned with the fate of the sick, the poor and the unvaccinated may have different priorities!) Morrison could not pull them into line even if he wanted to.
Covid will hit the regions – but after the election.
VAX up Australia.
Leaving to one side the electoral considerations, this has the makings of a great tragedy. These parts of Queensland are not particularly well served with public health infrastructure or resources, and when the virus makes it’s way to these regions, as it surely will, many will get sick, some will die, and plenty will face life with long covid. For many years unscrupulous political operators have cynically stoked the resentments of an isolated, poorly educated and unworldly community for their personal advancement. In 2019 it was coal, today it is vaccination. Just as the collapse of the thermal coal market will drive this community deeper into poverty and disruption, so also will the viral wave deliver a crushing blow to the vitality of the people. The ranting demagogues who profit from this alienation are smugly confident they will never be held to account for their part in these disasters.
All of that Griselda. Seems it isn’t hard to find a politician willing to sacrifice their soul for a vote at the upcoming election. As someone above asked, what will the reaction be when Covid comes to the regions there? Will they recognise that they’ve been stiffed by parliamentary swill and vote accordingly, or will their anger be misdirected towards some other target. Palasczuk has been pretty unrelenting making sure that QLDers know that it was Morrison’s fault they don’t have enough vaccines. Surely they will put one and one together.
Never underestimate the propensity of of people to be misdirected, often willingly and with little encouragement, never mind when Sinclair Lewis’ epigram is considered.
Peeps is dumb and too many are keen on Physiognomy rhinodectomism despite the facial fallout…err, off.
I an see a class action against Palmer, Christianson and other MPs that have promoted anti vaccination
Are they vaccine hesitant, or has vaccine supply been slow to regional areas?
Or since there is virtually no Covid anywhere near them, do they not see the necessity?
All of the above! As has been witnessed elsewhere, vaccine hesitancy is a luxury for the spivs and shonks until Captain Covid comes to town. They’ll then dance a merry jig down to the vaccination centres, all the time complaining about it.
But I don’t expect regional QLD to get the same as ACT or NSW figures, but reality catches up fast. I suspect that a lot of the vaccine hesitant are likely to be in the prime age categories for serious illness if they get Covid, and that is only a matter of time. Will be interesting to watch, especially for those nth qld towns that do a lot of tourist business. Tourists mean covid.
If there’s low vax rates in these areas, and they suffer covid breakouts, will that result in a vote against the government for failing to protect them? Will the anti-vaxxer parties get punished for creating an environment where Coivd could take hold? Or would there be some kind of counter-intuitive doubling down of support for the anti-vaxxer club?
I have no idea, anyone have an opinion of how this might play out?
Answers to your questions. Nope, they just got the flu or its Gods work. Nope, they are unable to admit they are wrong. Nope, the people who want to be vaccinated will be by the time the election comes along.
The fact that Barnaby Joyce keeps on being re-elected is surely a sign of voter mentality, whether that be that they are just like him or that it’s some sort of hillbilly protest against government at all.