It’s been a recurring theme in the pandemic: just when we think we’re on top of an outbreak, COVID-19 rears its ugly head and makes things complicated. This time it’s a subvariant of the Delta strain coupled with waning immunity causing cases to spike abroad.
So just how serious is it?
What we know so far
The new subvariant AY4.2 accounted for about 6% of sequenced COVID cases in the UK by late September and has also emerged in the United States, Israel, India, Japan, China, Russia and parts of the European Union. It’s yet to be classified as either a variant of interest or a variant of concern by the World Health Organization, although the UK has declared it a “variant under investigation”. The Israel Health Ministry has found it may be 15% more contagious than the original Delta variant but so far doesn’t appear to be more deadly.
Each person who catches COVID has a slightly different mutation of the virus, which we know through genome sequencing. Once these mutations are large enough to affect how transmissible or how deadly the virus is, or how the virus functions, it’s deemed a new variant.
The difference between Delta and Delta-plus is minor, distinguished by two mutations on the virus’ spike protein, which connects with the surface of human cells. One of the reasons COVID-19 is more transmissible than other coronaviruses like SARS is because these proteins shift shape easily to better connect with the cell, and have a tighter grip.
University of Queensland infectious disease specialist Paul Griffin tells Crikey knowing the impact mutations had on the virus was tough.
“We don’t always know how mutations change the properties of the virus, and with this new subvariant we really need more information,” he said. “[Delta-plus] does have some properties that need to be observed, and we need to keep monitoring it.”
What impact is it having abroad?
Hospitalisations in the UK have increased dramatically in the past few weeks, putting strain on the healthcare system. There have been more than 1000 daily hospitalisations, and deaths rose by 25%. Hospitalisations have increased from about 100 in June (though down from an all-time high of nearly 4000 in January before wide vaccine uptake).
While there are concerns this is due to Delta-plus, there are a variety of factors at play.
The UK opened up much more quickly than Australia, with huge “Freedom Day” celebrations. Mask mandates were removed as were capacity restrictions. It was also months ahead in its vaccine rollout, meaning immunity from the vaccine is starting to wane. While boosters are available, uptake has been low.
With just a handful of AY4.2 cases abroad, the impact of the subvariant is yet to be seen.
Are boosters on the way?
Griffin says the new variant isn’t yet a cause for alarm in Australia.
“We need to look to other countries to make sure we don’t make the same mistakes, and our situation is vastly different so we shouldn’t expect the same thing,” he said.
But boosters are important. Third doses are available for the severely immunocompromised, with a wider rollout expected to begin from next month following advice from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation and the Therapeutic Goods Administration.
Australia is also planning to manufacture mRNA vaccines onshore, though we don’t yet have the facilities or capacities. An announcement on which companies will be in charge of developing the vaccines is expected within weeks.
With so many variables affecting infection rates, it’s hard to know exactly what is causing the spike in UK hospitalisations. But we do know that when crowds return without masks when an outbreak is ongoing, and border restrictions and contact tracing are relaxed, and the population which is 80% vaccinated are suffering from waning protection with a booster shot due, you’re asking for trouble. NSW and Victoria are in a similar situation to the UK, which makes the next month or two both interesting and concerning.
Exactly, this statement ‘The UK opened up much more quickly than Australia, with huge “Freedom Day” celebrations. Mask mandates were removed as were capacity restrictions.’; there is enough evidence to be very cautious….
This begs the question as to why would Australia follow the U.K. (and U.S.) pseudo science strategies echoing the same glib and trite ‘freedom & liberty’ memes or tropes as though the ‘Anglosphere’ has some special status or powers; bypasses best practice elsewhere where sensible masking and evidence of vaccination are central.
In the Anglosphere there does seem to be too much tolerance for ideological reasons to question or even deny Covid science (like climate science) and avoid any restrictions on the ‘liberty’ of business and/or individuals (like fossil fuels).
How is this appalling comment allowed to appear?
It’s certainly an upside down twisted world when people who see themselves as “free thinkers” advise death to others. But female journalists cop this stuff a lot.
“Free” as in unmoored by facts in reality. In James’ case, decency or decorum as well.
Can the states hurry up with the quarantine facilities being built? Come in handy if variant comes to Australia. Don’t know if we would have enough qualified medical staff. UK was always on the business side of covid. Their NHS is woefully underfunded.
Quarantine activity?
Commonwealth – built a fence round the former Pinkenbar army area
Qld Gov – concrete pours at Toowoomba first 500 beds by Christmas
They are being built but already some media are questioning if needed. Assume they are needed for current times, and if not, good as they can then be used to bring offshore asylum seekers onshore for processing (far more cost efficient and effective, and confronting to Australians).
Meanwhile, over time they can be transformed back to when we had migration centres (which became deportation centres) welcoming new migrants, displaced persons etc.. Within a generation Australia’s attitude will need to change with increasing dependency ratios, more retirees/pensioners, declining permanent working age population and tightening supply of working age globally.
We’ve splashed so many billions in Jobkeeper, seeker, etc, why not build them anyway?
They can be used for something, and unwrapped if they are actually needed. Insurance.
“…Third doses are available for the severely immunocompromised….” Well, that explains how Morrison was able to get his ” Booster Shot today” as gleefully reported by channel 9 News …. I’m surprised he’s well enough to travel to Glasgow, poor chap.
For a professional marketer (admittedly a failed one) I struggle to comprehend how Morrison can believe that queue jumping for his own personal benefit (first with Pfizer, now with booster) can ever be a good look, when there are so many needy people who have to wait.
Just for the record, Morrison is the (failed) professional marketer; I am not a marketer, failed, professional, or otherwise.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Matthew 20 verse 16 🙂
”So the last shall be first, and the first last: for many be called, but few chosen.”
Take that Scotty.
Hmmm, so he’s had his booster has he? I was wondering when he’d elbow his way to the front of the cue…..of course it’s possible he may have a compromised OS.
Why do people keep reporting that Australia ‘will manufacture mRNA vaccines’? It may be relatively easy to manufacture an mRNA using specialist laboratory scale equipment, but to manufacture at industrial scale and maintain total quality control and sequence purity is rather difficult. Have any of the international Pharmaceutical players indicated they will license manufacture to an Australian entity? Or is this just another Morrison government ‘announcement’, which will lead nowhere?