(Image: Private Media/Tom Red)

Scott Morrison’s net zero plan is called “The Australian Way”. The name is telling. The pamphlet handed to journalists yesterday containing a series of graphs and diagrams was another sign we’re going our own way on climate. 

Beyond the spin and the bluster, the plan (a word mentioned 101 times in the press conference) gave us little new information about how Australia would reach net zero emissions, and left plenty of questions unanswered. 

The plan is a nice principle, a sign that even some people in the Morrison government believe climate change is real — if not exactly a priority worth taking seriously. But it won’t be legislated, because legislation is what Labor does. You know the government thinks this is a winner because Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce keeps getting up in question time to accuse Labor of wanting to pass laws. 

“Our plan works with Australians to achieve [net zero]. Our plan enables them, it doesn’t legislate them, it doesn’t mandate them, it doesn’t force them. It respects them,” the prime minister said.

Instead of passing laws and doing stuff, the plan will largely be achieved through technologies already flagged in the government’s roadmap (with the addition of cheap solar). But there’s vanishingly little new information on how those technologies will work to drive down emissions when, as Morrison flagged, it won’t affect coal or gas exports.

And so far, despite the Coalition’s fierce criticism of former Labor leader Bill Shorten’s failure to cost his climate policies at the last election, no modelling was provided. 

“Today’s about the plan. We’ll release the modelling in due course,” Morrison said. 

But a few “details” (or lack thereof) stand out. One is Morrison’s claim it would create 62,000 jobs in mining and heavy (read: polluting) industry. Morrison and Taylor didn’t clarify whether those jobs would come from carve-outs for those industries.

Another is the heavy reliance on carbon capture and storage to do heavy lifting, both as an offset mechanism and the bedrock of the government’s plan for clean hydrogen, despite little evidence that it has ever worked to reduce emissions.

Finally, there’s the buried graph which suggests that 30% of Australia’s reduction in emissions would come from a combination of “global technology trends” and “further technology trends”. In other words, stuff that doesn’t exist yet. When pressed about this, Morrison pointed out that at JB Hi-Fi stores one can see technology on the shelves that wasn’t around five years ago.

If you needed any more proof this is a political document, rather than a serious plan to reduce emissions, it’s right here.

But the most glaring omission from Morrison’s victory presser was the refusal to name the price of buying the Nationals’ reluctant agreement to a net zero target, all but locked in when Joyce didn’t front the cameras yesterday.  The only concession Morrison named was was confirmation that the Productivity Commission would do checks every five years to ensure the target wasn’t harming the regions.

But we know the Nationals’ price involved potential billions for the regions — in additional investment, a future fund, and tax breaks for farmers. Previously Nats had talked about total carve-outs for agriculture, for methane emissions. And they’ve effectively soft-committed to inland rail which as Crikey has repeatedly pointed out will open up the potential for a surge in coal exports.

Whether those other promises to mollify the junior Coalition partners will also allow an increase in emissions by stealth is unclear. Any investment into the regions strong-armed out of the government by the greatest pork-barrellers Australia has ever seen will come out between now and the election. Expect a slew of generous announcements to keep voters in coal country onside. Even in the Nationals’ act of climate extortion, the government has still found an opportunity to play politics.

One last little surprise was Morrison’s claim that more details on the expenses would come out in a budget next year. That can mean one of two things: that Morrison will use a splashy, generous budget as the launching pad for a May election, as he did in 2019. Or that he’s so confident the government will win, he’s already planning for another term. If voters don’t see through the marketing, he might be right.