Anthony Albanese
(Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

As Scott Morrison headed to Glasgow for COP26 this week, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese visited a wind farm in New England, the electorate of Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce.

It was a move designed to ram home the internal inconsistency on climate which has racked the Coalition over the past fortnight. Albanese pointed out that the renewable energy zone, backed by the NSW Liberal government, was opposed by Joyce. 

It was a move typical of how Labor has worked under Albanese: clever stunts highlighting the Morrison government’s policy ineptitude but offering little substance in return. Labor was full of zingers last week as the prime minister unveiled his lacklustre net zero pledge: “a scam not a plan” was its line. But while its energy spokesman Chris Bowen has hinted it will adopt a more ambitious 2030 target (it went to the last election with 45%), it won’t commit to anything until after Glasgow.

On climate, as on so much, Labor’s plan is to wait and see. Party insiders are pretty open about how they think they can win the election. Scarred by the bruising shock of 2019 when it lost control of its own bold policy platform amid a whirlwind of scare campaign and misdirection, Labor is committed to a “small-target” strategy: chip away at Morrison’s image, outline a handful of areas of policy difference as the election draws close, and leave no room for the government to hit back.

The guiding precedent here is John Howard’s 1996 election win, where a veteran party warrior was able to follow an unlosable election with an epoch-shifting landslide through a small-target strategy.

But Albanese is no Howard and Labor is not the Coalition. Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke won from opposition on the back of a grand vision for Australia. As the Morrison-Joyce/McCormack government sputters into its final quarter, there’s a fear Albanese has left it too late to show the country what his Australia looks like.

And yet, despite all the hand-wringing over what Albo stands for, Labor still holds an election-winning two-party preferred lead in all major opinion polls. The idea that it is policy-lite — especially compared with the policy-barren Morrison government — is also maybe a little unfair. Albanese has pointed to things like secure work, a focus on housing, better childcare, boosting local manufacturing — nothing particularly ambitious or sexy, but all things which fall squarely within Labor’s wheelhouse.

The lack of a big Labor narrative is really a reflection on Albanese’s struggle to get cut-through in opposition. And on that front he’s been a victim of circumstance. The pandemic has put state and federal leaders in the spotlight and forced oppositions to walk a difficult tightrope — pointing out government failure while avoiding the trap of being seen to undermine public confidence.

A case in point: for months, Labor’s go-to line was about how Morrison flunked his “two jobs” — the vaccine rollout and hotel quarantine. Now that the vaccine rollout is on its victory lap, and hotel quarantine looks like a white elephant, the opposition is changing its tune to avoid being wedged as dismal COVID pessimists. 

What should encourage Labor here is that although the pandemic has been great for incumbents, Morrison hasn’t been able to achieve the rockstar-like popularity of premiers. Despite leading as preferred prime minister, voters have had three years to get a deeper sense of Morrison’s deceitful phoniness.

There’s a reason Albo plays up his log-cabin origin story, being raised by a single mother in public housing. It highlights an authenticity lacking in Morrison, a career party apparatchik who adopted his “beloved” Sharks only after being parachuted into a Sutherland shire safe seat.

There’s much that makes Morrison a weak PM: internal division over climate, memories of long lockdowns, the potential for outbreaks in the COVID-free states. To capitalise on that, Labor must get the timing right. Here Morrison’s big strategic advantage of being able to call an election when he thinks things look most winnable is wearing off — a March or May poll is pretty much certain now.

But the summer log-off period and triumphant reopenings on the east coast mean Labor’s quest for that elusive narrative cut-through is even more urgent. Otherwise voters living in a COVID-normal Australia might forget it exists.

Can Albanese cut through with voters or is it too late? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name if you would like to be considered for publication in Crikey’s Your Say column. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.