Scott Morrison with Dominic Perrottet (Image: AAP/Mick Tsikas)

After a painfully embarrassing week abroad, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is back in the country and straight into election mode. After touching down in Sydney last night, the prime minister is planning a week-long post-COVID blitz through New South Wales and Victoria.

It’s an opportunity for Morrison, whose trustworthiness has come under assault this week, to rebuild voters’confidence ahead of an election likely to be held in March or May. And the pit stops he makes on the road will give us a clear idea of where and how the Liberals are hoping to win.

First up is Sydney, where Morrison held a press conference with NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet at the WestConnex motorway this morning. The prime minister will be hoping to cash in on any goodwill towards the state Liberal government over the reopening. So far, the federal government has borne the brunt of the baggage for long lockdowns, and Morrison has struggled to take credit for things the way his state counterparts have.

The Liberals have also maintained NSW is key to their reelection chances, and are targeting up to 10 Labor-held seats there. Labor, meanwhile, is on the defensive in the state, and some in the party are lukewarm about their chances of making gains in suburban Sydney.

Morrison is expected to make a play at Hunter Valley coal country, where Labor holds seats the Coalition believes could be vulnerable. High on that list is Hunter, once safe for Labor, but where long-term MP Joel Fitzgibbon, who copped a large swing against him in 2019, is retiring. It’s hoped the Coalition’s support for mining, and enduring perceptions of Labor’s hostility to an industry that once made up its base, will put it and Shortland and Paterson in play. Elsewhere in the state are some of Labor’s most marginal seats, including Macquarie (0.2%), Eden-Monaro (0.8%), Dobell (1.5%) and Gilmore (2.6%). 

Morrison’s NSW roadshow may encounter two problems. First, preselections haven’t been finalised for key seats like Dobell and Gilmore, reportedly because Morrison’s key factional ally, Immigration Minister Alex Hawke, is stalling in order to get his preferred candidates in. In Hunter seats, there’s some tension within the Coalition over whether the Nationals should run.

But Morrison’s bigger problem right now is the polls — they all have Labor comfortably ahead on a two-party-preferred basis. Roy Morgan’s most recent NSW state-based poll, conducted after former premier Gladys Berejiklian resigned in scandal, showed Labor up to 55.5%-45.5% over the Coalition, a swing of 7% since the last election. 

In Victoria, Roy Morgan shows Labor looking even stronger, at 56.5% to 43.5%.

It’s been months since Morrison was in Victoria, where he must grapple with a perception, boosted hard by Labor, that he’s the “prime minister for NSW.” Again, the key issue, particularly in Melbourne, the world’s most locked-down city, is which party will be able to capitalise on the reopening. 

While perceptions of the Morrison government’s indifference to Melbourne and pro-Sydney bias are an article of faith to some Labor MPs and progressives on social media, it’s unclear how widely held a view that is in the electorate. And despite strong polling in the state giving the impression of a potential Labor bloodbath in Melbourne, the party is cautiously pessimistic about its chances, pointing to Chisholm as its only real expected gain so far. 

Part of that pessimism is a natural hangover from the shock of 2019. It’s also a recognition of how far there is to go before the election.

Morrison has spent his last few weeks away from voters, grappling with the Nationals during a parliamentary sitting fortnight or getting ripped to shreds by foreign leaders. But it’s on the campaign trail where he’s at his best. No surprise that he’s decided it’s to dust off the baseball cap and the cringey daggy-dad schtick and hit the road.