“It’s not the despair… it’s the hope!” John Cleese whines in Clockwise. I think the sentiment is originally from Pascal’s Pensees, but you gets what you gets. Progressives and rusteds are having the first real feels that we might be in this.
They’re/we’re resigned to Labor’s no-target strategy, the odd choice of a 43% target (the meaning of everything plus one?), and the hope that the Coalition has become such a disgusting rabble that enough people in some key seats will be persuaded that some sort of order must be restored.
They quietly expect that victory has become likely. Here’s one small and one big reason why they probably shouldn’t.
The big one is the peculiarities of the array of marginal seats, peculiarities few seem to have commented on, except in the most general and undifferentiated terms. Yet the way they have fallen offers little comfort for Labor, and a lot of fat for the Coalition.
The crucial fact is that the Liberals are defending only two ultra-marginals and one very marginal — Bass, Chisholm and Boothby (0.4%, 0.5% and 1.4% swings required) — and they’re all weird, contrarian seats.
Bass being in northern Tasmania is a land unto itself, a place where national issues compete with vegetable canning, bicycle paths (against), docks demarcations in Devonport, encroaching Satanism (in the shape of Dark Mofo), and multiple state Aussie Rules leagues, etc. There’s no simple way to win Bass.
Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east was solidly Labor for 20 years under Anna Burke (after decades as a Liberal heartland), and its moderate liberal remnant, loathing what the Liberal Party has become, would have kept it so — had not Box Hill and surrounds become a de facto Chinese city with a strong Liberal, anti-socialist base — especially among its many CCP members. It may well go more Liberal in ’22.
Boothby, in the Adelaide Hills, is the ultimate fainting-and-smelling-salts seat, continually shocked — shocked! — at the Liberal Party’s doings but last voting Labor in in 1947. Liberal dissident Steele Hall held it for 20 years.
Nicolle Flint is not recontesting, and defenders are running hard on a “left-misogyny” charge after Extinction Rebellion graffitied her office. A recent friendlyjordies vid calling her, inter alia, a “whiny little bitch” is going to be oh-so-helpful — and was dutifully telegraphed on in News Corp.
After Boothby — on a 1.5% swing — Labor hits a reef of 3.1% and up, starting with Braddon in north-east Tasmania, another seat sui generis (issues: hospitals have a higher death rate than Mogadishu, why can’t I ride a quad bike in the Tarkine, football leagues).
Now look at Labor’s marginals, and there are six seats under Boothby’s 1.5% swing — from Macquarie, mountainy west of Sydney on 0.2%, to Blair (1.2%), ex-urban Queensland “bikie-kept-stripper’s head-to-give-to-Jesus” headline territory. After that, there’s another eight seats, from Dobell on 1.5% to the notorious Hunter on 3%, made tougher by Fitzgibbon being returned to the jungle.
Even discounting the likelihood of strong pro-Coalition swings, there is enough idiosyncrasy in the very-marginals to give Labor reversals: Macquarie is going increasingly happy-clappy as the Hillsong crowd rolls west, Corangamite (1%) on Victoria’s surf coast is going ever more bougie, and Blair will be dope for anti-vax UAP vote transfer Lab-to-Lib.
There’s also Indi, which the Libs could take with a 1.4% swing (although Labor could compensate by regaining Melbourne with a — checks notes — 21.8% swing, hahaha).
So the Coalition has a lot of paths to pull off some surprise holds and gains, and Labor has fewer paths to win in its own right.
It has some advantages: the new safe seat of Hawke, the possibility of getting Flinders without Greg Hunt — yes, even Hunt has an incumbency premium; usually 3%, in Hunt’s case I would guess immediate family — and the Libs losing Higgins to the Greens.
But Labor may lose McNamara (the old Melbourne Ports — I hate these crappy honorific namings… Latham, Colston, Orkopolis, Milat) or even Richmond in northern NSW to the tree-huggers (does anyone still call them that?) to even it out. Labor would rather lose to Peter Dutton.
Really, to be sure, even of plurality, Labor needs to get eight to 10 seats in on the pendulum, allowing for gaps and reversals — which takes them to Robertson, north of Sydney. Our hopes live and die on the edge of Dubbo. As always.
And, as promised, the small reason why not, a sort of sandwich-de-merde digestif. That would be Asmar v Albanese, the court case by the unions at the core of the Centre Unity-Industrial Left put together by Adem Somyurek, challenging federal Labor’s right to make preselections in the suspended Victorian branch.
Asmar v Albanese was knocked back in the Supreme Court last month, the Supremes unsurprisingly telling the plaintiffs that they don’t intervene in badminton clubs or political parties. Diana Asmar (Health Workers Union head) and her co-plaintiffs are appealing — in a strictly legal sense.
But the Industrial Left (the CFMMEU and the RTBU) have dropped out, with word that they have made a deal with the socialist left-cons (the Conroy right, ostensibly headed by Richard Marles) to float RTBU head Luba Grigorovitch into the state seat of Kororoit, soon to be vacated by Marlene Kairouz, one of Somyurek’s hapless lieutenants, whose own case against the ALP leadership was also chucked out.
Grigorovitch would be an undoubted asset — and her enemies in the very left RTBU are gathering, disquieted over her talk-of-the-town relationship with venture capitalist Ben Gray, uber-rich scion of a Liberal family. Her elevation would mean the CU-IL alliance has come to a clattering end, signified by the departure from politics of Jane Garrett, once future premier of Victoria, currently pickled in the upper house.
Asmar v Albanese is thus now visible as nothing much more than the ragged forces around Bill Shorten and the AWU making a last stand, to hold on to something in the party — especially on the chance that Labor loses in 2022 and (zing!) Bill’s back, y’all.
There’s almost no chance the appeal will win, but if it did, landing in February, Labor would be thrown into chaos — and all amid the tough marginal struggle outlined above. Is this ragged faction of the right about to perform one last anti-service to the forces of Labor?
Like clockwork. Not the despair, the hope.
I think a properly hung parliament would be a good thing, especially if independents of the likes of Haines or Stegall were part of the equation – it would force a minority government to a degree of accountability we have not seen in a long while and that could hardly be a bad thing. It might also persuade the electorate to stop putting their faith in a pair of long obsolete franchise operations.
I agree with the idea of a properly hung parliament. I have a not so little list.
Could be a public hanging with pie vendors and knitting ladies.Think of the TV rights make more money than the Olympics.
And there would be no shortage of volunteers to assist – Hell, I’d pay for the privilege.
well would suffice
Albo ran a pretty productive ‘tight ship’ as leader of Parliamentary Business in the Gillard government when the balance of power was in the hands of the likes of Tony Windsor et al. So if it has to be a hung parliament again, I reckon, especially with a good collection of Independents and, even, Greens it would not be a bad thing and Also will make it work.
The Senate, however, would need a stronger Labor presence to balance out the Pauline Hansen, Katter, and other populist types, who may yet get up in this Anti-vax/Conspiracy theorist/Authoritarian-Libertarian/(Misplaced-Christian Right/Bonkers/ ‘Trumpian’ environment we seem to have.
TNL have a strong Twitter presence, but I have NFI how that translates into electorate-world.
As some may have misnoted, I seem not to be AA’s biggest fan, but only as leader.
As a backdoor man he once had few equals and yet he remained loyal, kinda-sorta, to Leftishizm.
Treacherous, untrustworthy and venal, he is/was (?sorry,left that swamp long ago) nonetheless effective in that role.
And what evidence have you of Aldo’s listed failings ? Or is it all in the category of ‘assertions made without evidence may be dismissed without evidence’ ?
I know how to tie a hangman’s knot, if that helps?
I’ve been practising but prefer a more precise mode of despatch.
There is nothing more precise than a tried and tested over centuries method of dispatch. Perhaps you meant more immediate, but haven’t the intelligence nor vocabulary to find a more apt word ?
And perhaps they’ll manage to push it back to the centre. Perhaps I’ll even see independents running in poor electorates in my lifetime. Perhaps even leftist ones! I can dream, can’t I? I still have 30 years or so.
Seriously, I applaud the new Voices candidates, but while ever all we have to vote for are economic right wingers, the division, disenchantment and disengagement will continue to grow out here in working and lower middle class land until we look an awful lot like the UK or US, but with a lot more informal voting.
Ultimately, socially progressive/economic conservatives ensure low income LGBT+ people the right to suffer poverty without the added indignity of being villified for their sexuality and that’s where it ends. They have no interest in wealth redistribution because they never see the need in their leafy, well-heeled suburbs.
Please hang in there. It will get better.
It must.
unsure who would like a well hung parliament
Members of the BSD’s think they are well hung.
jakiLambi
I concur that Mss Haines & Stegall would easily lead a properly well hung parliament.
I’d consider moving just to be in a Voices of… electorate.
Remember though that these are disgruntled liberals and will ensure a progressive government cannot govern. If we vote for the “Voices for” we are voting liberal. These are not progressive candidates, they are small l liberals, who care about climate change and accountability. So while they may be better than the RWNJ we currently endure, I have little hope of progressive policies.
Well said, shellsbells…I wish a few other people would wake up to that fact. All these so-called independents are just Liberals in drag. So if any of them actually win, they would be replacing one Lib for another, and we would still be stuck with the poor excuse for a PM we currently have, and nothing would ever get done.
I think its time to give the other mob a go first…at least they are more progressive than what we have now!!
“All these so-called independents are just Liberals in drag” – Helen Haines? Andrew Wilkie? Once you start saying oh, except that one, oh, and that one too, your start losing your argument.
If Allegra Spender is a liberal in drag, backed by Simon Holmes a’court to take climate change action, on that basis alone, many would consider her a worthwhile vote.
Removing Sharma is icing on the cake.
As for Zoe Daniels – “another so-called independent just liberals in drag” ??
I’ve always thought that ABC is a breeding ground for “liberals in drag”.
Gosh, someone better tell Simon Holmes a’Court before he further invests his money on them.
a merkin
They would be progressive if they unleashed their left wing ,presuming there is any LEFT.
I’d ask you to remember Tony Windsor and Rob Oakshotte, both former Gnats who enabled the Gillard government to actually govern better than any other in the last 12 years.
Both socially progressive, both fiscal conservatives, both capable of choosing for the betterment of the nation, rather than accepting the blandishments and attempted bribes of the born-to-rules.
Plus action on climate and a working NBN.
Remember Fred Chaney?
the epitaph red Fred was assigned to him.. mostly due to his shiraz consumption
I’d prefer a properly hanged parliament, starting with the most mendacious of the cons.
A hung parliament could be a good thing or it could just mean lots of vote buying as reps cater to their own electorates and the nation be dammed. Hmmm, I wonder if independents have screwed us like that before?
Depends whom you mean by ‘us’ – MPs are supposed to represent their electorate, end of.
Certainly not a party which requires adherence to rigid ideological control as a precondition for nomination.
So, if Indies can open the Treasury to the benefit of their constituents, well & good.
Don’t Guy!! I am feeling a groundswell of hope and you can’t take it away from me! Labor feel just a little bit emboldened, you can see they are standing taller and talking stronger. Don’t be the grinch that stole hope at Christmas time too!
I think that it’s wise to brace for disappointment in elections. The last Fed election – where I expected a victory of common sense and social justice over grift, rorting and denialism – was a depressing experience.
This would be more than disappointment it would be the absolute end of Australia as a respectable country. The formation into a tinpot regime would be complete. My only hope is that there is a repeat of the sentiments expressed in the WA and QLD elections, the Eden Monaro byelection, and that there would have to be a swing against the Government- it’s not as if Labor has never won a Federal election.
I cried for weeks
I just felt sick and like the skies were perpetually grey……… Like when your pet dies!
Two words, Don’s Party!
,
After so many election-day disappointments, and the associated trauma, I fully understand the need, from a mental health perspective, to dampen down expectations simply to ensure that one more disappointment does not tip us over the edge.
And yet, and yet…. I feel compelled to bring you good news from the West, which despite some wishes to the contrary, is still attached to Australia, and has 15 members (currently 16) to contribute to the next House of Representatives. The strength of resentment towards Morrison here should not be under-estimated, and you can be confident of a very subsantial swing to Labor, who currently hold just 5 seats. Swan, currently held by probably the most decent of the Liberals, Ken Whyatt, is the only one classified as marginal Lib seat, at 3.2%, but Pearce (5.2%), Hasluck (5.9%), & Tangney (9.5%) are all extremely vulnerable. I would dearly love to see my own seat of Canning (11.6%) fall, with the demise or far-right Christan fundamentalist soldier-boy, close friend of Abbott, and sponsor of Dutton, Andrew Hastie, but that might be a bridge too far.
Either way, you can be confident that, for once, there will be good news coming from the West late on election night!
The electoral boundary for Pearce has been changed since the last federal election; with the redistribution, it is more inclined towards Labor. And factor in the disenchantment with Porter which will likely be reflected onto his Liberal successor.
Given porters gone, I wouldn’t be surprised there is a swing to LNP.
Gone as in FORCED out, hence the increase in LNP support.
By a Kangaroo Court, no less.
No, by his own sleazy actions in hiding the source of his possibly $1M slush fund. Unacceptable in any circumstance.
As you demonstrate, apparatchiks can’t grasp nuance and rarely have a sense of humour, let alone proportion.
I think that Hermes was riffing on Scummo’s last (hopefully) performative performance in the Reps preparatory to his anointing with blessed oil St Gladys of Shredding.
As of Wednesday morning, that beatification has joined his many misspeakings.
NB – never mendacities.
I certainly hope so!
Tangney has been a Liberal-held seat for 45 of its 47 years, and requires a 10% swing for Labor to win. What makes it ‘extremely vulnerable’?
The fact that it’s currently a part of the justly reviled Morrison fiasco.
Indeed it has, and I well remember working on Joe Dawkins’ campaign in 1977. But it’s one of many seats in WA where the contempt for Morrison is extremely high – if there was an election today, I would expect a swing of more than 10% to Labor (off a low base), which may be reduced by Government sweeteners, but don’t think that that anger will disappear overnight.
1974
Almost every election there are seats changing hands that are well above ‘marginal’. If Labor gets over 51% of the vote, they will win many other seats. At 52% it heads to comfortable territory, at 53% it’s a landslide.
The swing in WA alone (you know, that state that’s west of the map most eastern states pundits uise) may well be in the order of 6% to 10% and deliver several seats. Ditto Qld, where even a modest recovery would gain seats.
AS they say, it all sorts out in the wash and as much as I enjoy Guy’s musings, on this one he’s best leaving it to the psephologists.
Yes typical of ES journalist.WA is to be ignored unless it can be rubbished.The media attitude re the near corvid free existence enjoyed in WA mocked.Jealousy seems the main reason.
However this election may be the time for a change when passing scant looks west because Morrison and the LNP stink here and the WA voters showed what they are capable of in the last state election.
I believe that WA could deliver a number of Lib seats to Labor at the election, given that the Libs have 10 of 15 seats to lose (after the redistribution). Normally, state governments stay out of Federal politics, but COVID times are not normal; with McGowan still very popular but having to push against Morrison every step of the way, I doubt he will keep quiet during the election campaign. The result of the state election, when the Libs only won 2 of 59 seats, and the LNP clearly single digits between them, only has to be replicated in part for Labor to make up most or all what they need in WA alone.
The lack of eastern states journalistic interest in the truly amazing WA state election result continues to astonish me. It’s like a tiger got out of its cage and everyone pretends the streets are all safe and normal.
The striped, carnivorous elephant stalking the western sands may yet return some investment.
Yes, agree. We here in the West have duly noted this. Do not underestimate how angry it makes us.
No crows for WA? This should make the next footy season interesting.
It’s almost if Guy Rundle has no idea what he is talking about.
sshhh, that’ll get you canxld.
Possibly. More likely devil’s advocate, or even more likely, clickbait.
well at 124 comments and counting it worked!
I am really hoping that all of SCOVID-Mo’s attempts to browbeat WA over border closures come back to bite him in the arse big time, given that WA, along with Qld (which has had it’s own fair share of Scummo hissy fits), was responsible for him scraping over the line last time.
And both have had months of maskless normality, something the ‘real Australia in the SE’ thinks is from some Matrix movie fake.
Nice to see some numeracy here.
Psephology is especially welcome.
I think there is a significant feeling that “The West Remembers” Clive, Scott and Christian. The lack of commentary is a little surprising
SR
Labor has reached 51% 2 PP in precisely two of the last 12 elections – and in 1998, it gained 50.98% of the 2PP vote and still lost the election.
Good luck with that 53%
Further to this, in the 2019 election, 7 of the 11 seats changing hands required a swing of under 1%.
In the 2016 election, 7 of the 20 seats changing hands were under 2% swing
So even in a (near) change election such as 2016, marginals occupied – as one would expect – a far higher proportion of the seats changing hands than of seats overall.
In a close non-change election, they dominate.
Hence the danger to Labor of having about 10 exposed ultra-marginals, compared to the Liberals three
If the hope for Labor is that seats changing hands are completely randomly spread across the board, dream on
Surely Indi stays inde. A few seat changes here and there is normal, the elephant in the room is the ability of the Nats to get 20 odd seats in the lower house to The Greens 1 for the same number of votes. We need to move to the NZ electoral system, bigger mixed member electorates. Get rid of the states and have bigger stronger councils too
You don’t want much.
Indeed: he’s only talking about the jewel in their crown.
I think that you mean(t) many “…mixed member electorates…” – the population factor is crucial in that system, common throughout the civilised world, esp. northern EU.
The average Reps. is around 100,000 which is far too large for effective mandate under any system – 20-40,000 per member in the euronorm – so 5 MPs per current seat would be a good interim measure.
Pending further refinement.
It seems to have escaped your notice that we will never get rid of the states…as you put it…unless the states decide to get rid of themselves. Do you not realise that it was the states who ‘created’ the Commonwealth…NOT the other way around.
The way things have been going lately, I think the states should abolish the bloody commonwealth!!!
Get rid of the states? When state governments have done the only governing happening in the country? Not very bloody likely!
i think it probably will, and Haines deserves to be re-elected, but 1.4% is a close margin
I think it probably matters that the last election represented a backlash to Shorten’s indigestible campaign highlights/targets, with Bob Brown delivering the coup de grâce by travelling North to tell coal country Queenslanders what those south of the border rightly think about coal. A lot has happened since then. Anthony Green’s pendulum probably can’t assume a uniform national swing, this time round. Having a coach builder as a grandfather, I am impressed with the speed with which he left that job as motor cars arrived on the scene, whatever the Jenny George’s of his day had to say.
Like Ralph Nader, ‘sea-green incorruptibles‘ tend to lack retail skills and have a short shelf life.
As Doris Lessing (‘Golden Notebook’) showed mid 20th in Britain, the perfect is often the foe of the good, always of the barely adequate.
Sophie didn’t lose she got subbed off…
Not the “same number of votes”. The Nats polled 4% of the vote and got 10 seats. The Greens polled 12% and got 1.
Problem with the Greens, they’re still loopy fundamentalists who would rather tear down the possible because it’s not perfect. They could be allying themselves with the true rurals that the Gnats have left, behind, but lack the wits and drive to do so. Until they do, they’ll always be a pimple on the arse of an elephant. Pity.
Thanks for that SussexSt basement bulletin.
The Greens get double the vote of the Nats & the Nats would get fewer senators if they were not given No2 place on the LNP ticket.
if Helen loses a spot on the submarine replacement board is hers for the taking..