On the unofficial campaign trail in Geelong last week, Scott Morrison began singing the praises of the ute. Specifically, a statue of a big ute on a stick.
“Well, I love utes,” the prime minister said. “How good are utes? And how good would a big ute be?”
This is key to the Morrison brand. Daggy dad, blokes, beer, baseball caps, eskies, footy…. utes. ScoMo again wants the electorate to forget he’s a career Liberal Party hack and fall for the blue-collar-bloke’s-bloke cosplay.
The problem is that voters are, maybe, starting to see through the schtick. A series of bad days in Parliament, bitter division, and that whole liar thing has stung Morrison. Labor Leader Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, has new glasses, and looks trim and match-fit, with an edge in the polls and a spring in his step.
But election season kicks off with neither side confident. Both men hold negative approval ratings. Neither seems to excite, or set the country on fire. For all Labor’s recent polling dominance, there’s a feeling voters don’t really know or care what it’s about.
As both leaders huff and puff around the country trying to convince people they’re the real deal, the million-dollar question remains: how do you sell a prime minister?
A scared market
When selling a product, it’s best to start by looking at the market. According to RMIT marketing professor Francis Farrelly, the market — in this case the electorate — is feeling uneasy after years of upheaval. It’s worried about the state of the economy, the ongoing health crisis, and the now less remote possibility of conflict in the region.
“The way I would see it … [the electorate is] going to be risk-averse,” he said. “They’ll be looking, more than anything, for people with a steady hand. Even if they don’t necessarily like the individual, that’s gonna be what they look for.”
For Toby Ralph, a marketer who’s worked on more than 50 elections around the world, next year’s contest will be a contest of acceptability versus risk with the economy as its theme.
“Labor have to convince them that Morrison and the LNP have stuffed up and ought be booted out, while the LNP must argue that Albanese and Labor are a risk and it is another round of better the devil you know,” he said.
All this should be troubling for Labor. Almost two years into the pandemic, Australians are well aware that COVID-19 means chaos lurks around every corner. Just as soon as the east coast began to ease into summer, along came a new variant, and a return of uncertainty and fear. In that context, stability might be the strongest asset Morrison has, even if his personal approval has declined. On top of that, there’s the pandemic halo effect. Around Australia, and the world, COVID has been great for incumbents, Donald Trump excepted.
How to cut through
How does Labor convince an uncertain electorate to take another risk? Jess Lilley, creative director and co-founder at The Open Arms, says although Albanese struggles to cut through, one approach could be to emphasise his likeability by targeting the kinds of people Morrison ignores.
“The biggest thing he could do is talk to women, or talk to not-white men,” she said. “I think that’s the demographic that Morrison has stitched up.”
As an antidote to Morrison’s performative blokiness, it might work. It could also reinforce the Morrison government’s very real problems with women, well-documented over the past 12 months. So far, a problem for Labor is it has run a relatively risk-averse line in opposition, burnt after the experience of 2019.
Where it has gone hard is over Morrison’s honesty, increasingly willing to accuse the prime minister of lying. Lilley reckons some of that “lying liar who lies” stuff is starting to stick. But for how long?
“They just need to plant that seed enough that it talks to swing voters around election time,” she said. “But they’ve gotta keep it alive. The news cycle is so quick that people forget.”
But Farrelly is sceptical about how fruitful those personality-based attacks can be for Labor. He says while people see Albanese as a “decent bloke” he needs to provide a substantive reason why an uncertain, disengaged electorate should embrace the devil they don’t know.
“It’s not about how bad the other guy is. It’s about what can you point to that has substance in its own right given the risk-averse nature of people going to vote,” he said.
But there’s a bigger problem for both leaders, for their campaign staff, and for journalists trying to read the tea leaves. Unlike those in the game or watching it closely, the people deciding the next election are totally disengaged.
“Next May the result won’t be about the grand narratives accepted by the mass of engaged and committed voters,” Ralph said. “Rather it will be about local issues to the 20% of persuadable people in just eight key marginals.
“Many of these key players wouldn’t vote if they didn’t have to and have low regard for all politicians. They are far from stupid; they are simply disengaged and think pollies as a class are a bunch of incompetent arseholes getting too many perks.”
In 2019, Morrison won this demographic while the pundit class looked the other way. Next year another tight election will be won by whoever can animate the disengaged.
Labor hopes chipping away at the government’s credibility will be enough. The Coalition hopes fear of the other will lead voters’ to hold their noses. For either side, winning over people sick of politics will be a tough sell.
“The quiet Australia will be stronger than ever,” Farrelly says. “They’ve had a gutful.”
Promo Bargearse-McSmirky got away with his lies, attacks on Shorten and his totally phony “daggy-Dad” tripe because in a short election campaign, short & easily digested phrases and slogans can have maximum impact. For nigh-on three years now, we have seen Promo’s perpetual campaign and over a long period it has become much harder to digest, particularly when his actions (or inactions) have never matched his bluster. Like Mr Orange Face and Bobo Johnson, Promo is better at campaigning thane he is at the day-to-day of actual governance. For anyone who has been watching, his true lack of character, in fact any substance at all, has been on a constant “repeat” cycle. Look at any important issue and tell me how Promo has handled it well – better still, look at any important issue and tell me how he hasn’t got it massively wrong. The bushfires, Hawaii, vaccinations & quarantine (a good start followed by utter capitulation, incompetence and disgraceful blame shifting), climate change, AUKUS, Brittany Higgins, Christian Porter, women’s issues generally, Christensen & Rennick and Altic, hollow announcements about funding for bushfire victims and the arts – following by nothing. It might be fine if he was supported by a competent team, but he isn’t – he has surrounded himself with nitwits, largely because they don’t show him up for the neurotic, bad-tempered thug, intellectual lightweight and massively flawed character that he is. Promo has had repeated opportunities to draw breath, take a step back and change his approach and on pretty much every occasion, his has only dug a deeper hole for himself. His last week in the Parliament was about wedging Labor – instead, he was shown to have no leadership skills at all. With Beryl Bikkiebin and ICAC – his utter disrespect for Beryl and abject disdain for what her plans were was palpable – but he was promoting his own interests and what suited her was irrelevant. His treatment of Julia Banks, made to look like it was prompted by concerns for ” her mental health” was classic Promo – faced with a challenge, he lies, denies and attacks to protect himself. He also refuses to take responsibility for anything, or to apologise for his blatant screw ups. I think the biggest problem Albanese faces is that we all know, by now, how much Promo has failed as PM, but there are still many voters, women included, who will vote for a lying Liberal before they would vote Labor – their rationalisation is that all politicians lie, therefore Labor lies and that is worse than a Liberal lie (just like Labor debt is a crisis, but Liberal debt is economy building!). It is a staggering piece of delusion, but Promo has worked very hard to build his “barrackers” who will forgive him anything.
Nice rant. But please use paragraphs for easier digestion.
I’m not sure this standard ‘the electorate isn’t interested’ schtik applies any more. The ‘Voices’ movement and others seem to haver plenty of community involvement. Polls can change, but there aren’t many undecideds and the trend is obvious.
Finally, I’m not sure that marketing executives are the ‘go to’ on who will win an election.
You read Crikey. You’re not really in a position to conceive of the politically disengaged that are spoken of in the article, and probably don’t even speak to friends/associates who are (by very definition, they don’t talk about it!).
I was utterly gobsmacked when a good friend of mine came up with “I like Scott Morrison, he’s alright”… I pressed him, horrified – but he had nothing other to add than being a good bloke. This friend is no fool, he’s just utterly disengaged, and sees the PM every now-n-again doing a hot lap in Bathurst, or drinking a beer at the footy. They’re not reachable, they’re blissfully unaware of the current government being (possibly) the most corrupt since federation. And yes – these people will decide the next election. Not us.
Too true and too horrifying. The Lucky Country (misread). Relaxed and comfortable. Etc.
Your friend may not be a fool but you are portraying him as one. Disengaged or not, making a judgement on who should lead the country on the three things you mentioned is worse than foolish.
Sorry, but your friend IS a fool!! He may be disengaged, ie, code for lazy and ignorant. Has not been bothered to read, learn and get up to speed. It is so easy to say, ‘politician’s, they’re all, the same, I don’t trust them, etc…’when really it is because many voters, probably the majority are distracted by reality TV, sport, real estate and buying stuff online and facebook etc. We really need to be honest- our modern media is consumer driven and that is what people see as important. Sadly, they don’t think or reflect. Over the next few months, how many times will we hear the cliche, ‘voters aren’t stupid, the electorate is intelligent’??
Certainly the most corrupt Govt, Post War. Perhaps a bit of research to rank ALL governments since 1901 and 1945?
But bookies are. They don’t pluck those odds out of a brown paper bag with 80M in it. Odds are short on Labor. All Absareeasy has to do is keep turning up and being a talking head and being less scary than PH CP MR et al and the state premiers.
The only days he has to say anything of substance are the day before election and election day.
And all he has to say is tax cuts, vax is not fed responsibility, tax cuts, climate action and tax cuts.
As much as I detest gambling organisations, I agree that I’ve always found their gambling odds quite a reliable indicator. The only rider would be the extent to which they take a ‘tote’ approach, and feed back data on bets they’ve taken into their odds. In other words, it’s possible they’ve taken a lot of bets on Albanese from Morrison-hating optimists which has ultimately skewed the market.
Labor were 1.01 to take WA during the 2019 elections. How’d that turn out?
There are always exceptions to the rules. Polls are not always accurate. 20/1 horses win Melbourne Cups. Doesn’t tell us anything.
Taxes (can) give us civilisation – tax cuts destroy it.
Always has, always will.
Agreed, advertising gurus thrive on the contest for $ right now, with no concern for the future survival of humanity and all the other species and systems now at severe risk.
The biggest and best scare campaign will be about the imminent threats to our kids, and which side is best equipped to do something useful about it.
Yes- That Toby Ralph is a Liberal hack; a real sleaze. Couldn’t trust him!
there are many who also think nine years (of whoever) in Government is enough, and 12 years is too long.
This is going to be a very different Federal election, because of the impact of the Labor premiers both in the minds of those states’ voters, and in the actual election campaign. Given that particularly in WA and Queensland, the premiers have largely kept their people safe and (within state borders) free, whilst working against the do-bu**er-all Federal government. Normally state premiers keep quiet during Federal campaigns, but they gain absolutely no advantage in shutting up this time.
I sincerely hope that you are correct.
I am not so convinced of the long term memory of our compatriots, much less their cognitive competence.
The vote for Stability! What stability have we been seeing.
A vote for ‘Safe Hands’! What safe hands have we been seeing?
A vote for proven management skills to carry us forward! What management skills have been proven, by this Government?
Truely, the stability has been provided by the State Governments.
Similarly the ‘safe hands’ and the proven management skills.
We have seen a ‘Johnny come lately’ occupy the Prime Ministership (and before that Social Security, Border Security,Treasury) and prove, with his stuff ups (robodebt, off-shore detention, escalation of debt) and disrespectful lying, what his pre-politician history was telling us.
What we need is Albo, with his proven management skills, proven ‘safe hands’ (in ministerial, leader of the house roles) and with his proven ability to provide stability (in the minority government of Julia Gillard and as Leader of the Opposition).
We also have a man who is comfortable with woman, a respect for indigenous and those with extra struggles, and an understanding of workers (those who might like Utes but also want to paid for the work they do and know they have a secure job so that they can plan theirs and their family’s lives) Now that looks like the majority of the population in Australia, and are the group that the present Government has not been ‘looking after/respecting).
Since this is not the same as a ‘pie’ that is being shared around, what Albo is offering means that those (1-10% of the population) that the Coalition has been targeting, with their ‘largess’ and tax breaks will not lose a thing.
So win-win for the whole country to have Albo has the next prime Minister.