As the New South Wales government introduced restrictions last week, a Health official claimed that nobody could have predicted the challenges created by the rise of Omicron.
But while policymakers didn’t necessarily foresee the sudden emergence of a more transmissible, less virulent strain of COVID-19, some experts say we could have been better prepared to face the economic havoc created. Instead Treasury was sidelined, and inadequate attention paid to supply chain issues.
Now Australia faces a summer of record case numbers, widespread community anxiety and economic disruption. COVID infections and isolation have led to empty supermarket shelves, shuttered hospitality venues, and many people opting into their own form of “shadow lockdown”.
National plan’s miss?
Remember the national plan, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s four-stage approach to living with the virus, based around hitting vaccination targets and underpinned by modelling from the Doherty Institute that still guides the COVID response in most states?
The plan and modelling was put together in a pre-Omicron world. And although the Doherty Institute did make assessments around a potentially more transmissible future variant — and predicted a steep rise in infections after reopening — there was little guidance in the plan for the economic situation we are experiencing.
Similarly, analysis prepared by Treasury last year to support the national plan seems to focus on the likelihood of lockdowns and other restrictions at various vaccination levels. The modelling found that with more than 80% of the eligible population vaccinated, the economic cost of an outbreak would be $140 million a week. But Treasury didn’t model the cost of a “severe and widespread outbreak that breaches health system capacity”. Whether that describes the kind of situation we’re living through probably depends on which health expert you ask.
Treasury’s analysis also didn’t consider things like “confidence effects of improving certainty and reopening; dynamic effects (such as labour market scarring); social costs; the economic costs of illness and death; and fiscal costs.”
Economics Professor Richard Holden says there’s been a general sidelining of Treasury in Australia’s COVID response. Had it been better engaged in developing the national plan last year, Australia might have been better prepared for some of the economic disruption.
“My own reading of things is Treasury have been under-involved — [it] should’ve been engaged on a whole range of issues,” he told Crikey.
Should we have seen it coming?
Putting aside the scope of the government’s request to the Doherty Institute, and the unexpected emergence of Omicron in late November, Holden believes the shadow lockdown could have been foreseen.
“I think this was very foreseeable,” he said. “In the sense that we know that when there’s a lot of virus circulating, even absent strict lockdown rules, people take evasive action.”
Independent economist Saul Eslake says the potential for the economy to rebound after opening last year has been dampened by high case numbers, and its effect on people’s willingness to do things which stimulate economic activity.
“When we came out of previous lockdowns, we knew there was no COVID,” he said. “This time there was. Nobody — not the government, not forecasters — could’ve anticipated that people would have chosen themselves not to go out. We knew people would curb their movements, we just didn’t anticipate the magnitude of it.”
Eslake also believes that although Omicron was unexpected, there were warning signs from overseas as far back as November about its potential to affect supply chains.
“If you look at things that the [US] Federal Reserve were saying from mid-November onwards, and recent statements from the Bank of England, it was that Omicron’s impact would be felt on supply chains, putting upward pressure on prices,” he said.
Omicron, like all things COVID, has thrown up plenty of uncertainties and unknowns. But the strange economic limbo we’re living through was never outside the realms of possibility.
Far too generous.
All the current factors affecting citizens were predicted by those against opening the economy/‘letting it rip’
The business case did not care about increased infections.
The anti-vaxxer movement has had its way..we cannot go back.
once released it cannot be contained..(and the next variant the same)
so the only choice is ‘virtual lockdown’ ..a term first used in June when the road-map out was announced.
if the ‘government and forecasters could not have foreseen’ this situation..
we need new Government and forecasters!
In a strange way the stupid business community , which constantly presured govts to ease up and focus on “the economy” has totally p… d in their own nest
They are not a homogenous whole, are they?
It was likely the mates who asked for the ‘ripper phase’ to begin, likely the same mates who were NOT be undercut by distributing RATs at cost, to control the inevitable as best as possible.
You only had to watch SBS news every night to see what Omicron was doing in the UK and US. Sally McManus at ACTU wrote to Morrison last June urging the acquisition and deployment of RATs. So did many employer associations. Morrison, Frydenberg and Hunt clearly too overwhelmed to respond adequately.
Well, yeah, I guess the government should’ve done more to secure RATs. But it’s a global issue, so their powers are limited. But in any case I think it’s clutching at straws to say the availability of RATs would have changed the current situation fundamentally. Strikes me as a bit of a red herring.
@Wade Smith
At what stage does this federal government become responsible for its inaction?
The sheer laziness on display is staggering.
How many people will needlessly die because they couldn’t get an ambulance or be seen in A&E in a timely manner?
We will never know.
Don’t worry, if you have private health insurance, as all politicians do, the path to a hospital bed is smooth.
Is this why they consider the working class as disposable.
Sure. I don’t like this Govt at all and don’t want to waste time defending them. I just mean that RATs aren’t the main game. The main point is that they have decided that now is the time for the pandemic to turn into epidemic. That’s the point. It’s not about RATs, QR check-ins, etc. The idea is that we all get this virus now. The only discussion point left is what is meant by ‘now’. Unfortunately on the eastern seaboard ‘now’ means everyone gets it this month, but as we’re seeing it might’ve made sense to spread it out a little more. I believe that many people arguing about RATs are really arguing against the strategy to turn this into an endemic and would like instead to return to a zero-covid strategy. That’s a valid position to hold (though not mine), but it’s a more fundamental disagreement than supply of RATs.
So they should have facilitated the production of them here.
We will need similar for the foreseeable future, ie many many years.
Yeah, fair point. Indeed, it’d be nice if the Federal Government could finally invest in something for the future instead of merely short-sighted politics.
RATs make a huge difference, eg kids taking before attending school, essential workers etc etc. R is something like 5 with omicron so every case identified with a RAT is 5 fewer people who will get covid to spread it 5 others in turn and in turn again.
I understand the concept. I’m not anti-RAT, but I think it’s a fringe issue, often creating a false sense of security. I do agree that in specific settings they’re a good idea, especially to protect vulnerable people (visits to aged care homes, hospitals, etc.).
But again, many people arguing for better provision of RATs are implying that through that mechanism we can all avoid the virus. My point is that’s highly unlikely now, because it’s becoming endemic and we will all encounter it, RAT or no RAT.
A cricketer missed the 4th Test because of a positive RAT and spent a week kicking his heels despite “…not feeling crook and having no symptoms at all” which suggests – though unprovable – that he would not have been ‘shedding’ much, if any virus.
Sounds very similar to the reason for a sudden drop in notified cases in the UK last year when, as the northern Summer approached with the prospect of ‘freedom’ being dangled by Bozo, unknown numbers of people chose NOT to be tested for fear of missing out on their traditional right of a 10 day package to Benidorm.
Seriously? Saul Eslake says that nobody could have foreseen that people would choose not to go out? I really wonder why these people get paid. For two years there has been story after story of people in the US and the UK basically forced into isolation because of their governments’ policies on opening up businesses. Vulnerable people in the US in states where republicans have basically said ‘let it rip’ for two years have become prisoners in their own homes, and their families have had to be very careful about where they go. There are many similar stories from the UK. Furthermore, it is simply common sense that people would do this. The anti vax, anti mask type drones keep posting ‘if not now, when’ and ‘personal responsibility’ and ‘ not many people die’ and ‘why should young people suffer to save granny’ and ‘it’s no worse than a cold’, without any understanding that a) it’s not about the deaths, it’s about being ill, regardless of what form that illness takes. If you’re sick, you’re sick and you’re not going into work and b) no-one has any bloody idea of who is actually vulnerable. Once again, the ageist and ableist amongst us have insinuated or outright said that we should lock up all older people and those with comorbidities so that everyone else can get on with their lives. The people who say this refuse to recognise that this could be a substantial number of the population, many of whom are working and important contributors to society (in fact I’m going to bet, probably a lot more important than those who say they should be locked up). When you are in a workplace, you don’t know who amongst you has been receiving cancer treatment, or has a heart condition, or some other comorbidity. I expect ignorance from your average person commenting, especially given that many of them are driven from far right social media sites to comment. But I expect better from people whose job is supposedly to be able to analyse and make projections based on evidence that is actually available and, gee, I don’t know, maybe talking to people? SMH.
Seemingly fit and healthy younger people can be vulnerable to Covid without knowing it, e.g., through Covid-induced myocarditis.
I’m on VJ’s side.
I was just putting a supporting observation to VJs point B, although the point also adds uncertainty to risk assessment.
The upshot is, get vaccinated and reduce your risk profile (noting that if you have a myocardial response to the spike proteins produced after vaccination, then it is more than likely that you would have had a greater myocardial response to actual infection by Covid).
It’s not just about getting vaccinated, though. I have a few young friends who are getting treatment for cancer. You wouldn’t know it to look at them. They are fully vaccinated. As we know, you can still get covid if you’re vaccinated. And if they do, they are at more risk of a serious consequence than people of their age who aren’t being treated for cancer. So if they have employers who insist they come into the workplace, they are significantly at risk. But that is the way it is going. Employers are heading down the track of being allowed to force workers to come in regardless of risk.
Extremely rare.
Have another stab.
Don’t nitpick. I’ve given examples of vulnerabilities which are hidden. I’m sure you can think of quite a few more if you actually want to.
You have no idea of the number of people in our community who are immuno-compromised, this includes pregnant women, people who have had heart valve surgery including children, asthmatics on steroids, transplant patients, people who have had bone surgery and this is not a exhaustive list.
Pregnant women are immuno-compromised?
The evidence is otherwise, they have exceptionally robust immune systems – which increases in strength during lactation, otherwise evolution would have ceased sometime go.
Apologies – that should have been “pregnant people” & “chest feeding“.
According to the Department of Health website, pregnant women aren’t at any greater risk of catching COVID but they are at greater risk of severe illness if they do catch it. There is also a greater risk of premature delivery.
And likely to be permanent heart and lung damage, death for some kids, possible long term cognitive deficits – brain autopsies showing plague.
Assuming, perhaps over generously, that you are not simply intent on fomenting fear & uncertainty, did you mean “…brain autopsies showing
plaguePLAQUE.”?As in Alzheimer’s, the ‘vaxx autism‘ scare du jour?
Yes I did mean plaque 🙂 Thanks for the correct! It was late 🙂
How many things that this government thought they knew more about and were determined to follow down whatever rabbit hole it led – and had bought the “experts” to prove it – have actually turned out to be correct?
….. How much more more can they screw up with another term?
No limit they are the exemplar dunce class they botch everything
I honestly can not think of a single thing.
They have to be one of the most incompetent governments ever, in the entire history of the world.
And that is saying something..
Maybe the Governor of Pompeii was worse..
“Dangerous? Move a way away? No need, the gods are just burping a bit..
Student’s of irony would be intrigued by Morrisons’ focus on one tennis player in contrast to his complete lack of focus on stopping covid variants from crossing our borders.
When delta and omicron infected Australia, Morrison’s mob along with the epidemiologist said it was inevitable.
How so? If the border force has a competent program to prevent people arriving from overseas with the virus, how come variants get in so rapidly and then spread just as rapidly?
If variant border crossings are so inevitable as is claimed and given the new variants arise in Australia about a week after they are detected overseas, why all the fuss about one tennis player and why bother doing any border protection against the virus at all? Border protection is a farce.
With a current infection rate of 2-3 million per day world wide, the virus has perfect opportunity to mutate into far more pathological variants that delta or omicron. What’s next: A variant like the Mers virus that killed 34% of people it infected, a variant which is also as infectious as delta or omicron? Do you think border force will stop them?
People are dying, including people who have had the vaccine. The National Cabinet armed with the infamous Doherty Report promised that the vaccine was the solution. This has been shown to be false. Yes the vaccine improves your chances, but isolation, masks, social distancing and tight borders are the solution, vaccines are a just one minor component.
Prior to the infamous vaccine targets being achieved, our health professionals warned of the risks of rapid roll back of infection control measures and they have been proven correct. Once again our politicians ignored them being too keen to listen to the upper class who don’t give a damn about ordinary people and who see the deaths of the great unwashed as just part of doing business.
And finally after spending billions on PCR tests for people with symptoms they have finally worked out that you don’t need PCR tests for people with frank symptoms: Rapid Antigen tests at a tenth the price will do. RAT tests are even sensitive enough for screening people who are asymptomatic.
Australia has conducted about 55 million PCR tests on mostly symptomatic people at cost of $150 each, that’s $8.3 Billion. No doubt Morrison will try and claw back some of that by cutting tax to the rich, increasing the GST, and by imposing even harsher conditions on the unemployed, sick and elderly. Austerity for the poor and welfare for the rich in other words.
I underlined mostly symptomatic ; for those who don’t get it. If you have covid symptoms then a sensitive test like PCR which replicate DNA/RNA multiple times in the lab in order to to make the genetic material detectable, are unnecessary. If you have symptoms you will be shedding billions of virus particles that are easily tested with RATS. RATS tests for covid type viruses have been in the lab for over ten years. If they had been fast-tracked like the vaccines we would have been able to test cheaper and quicker with PCR tests being used to screen people who didn’t have symptoms but were at high risk of transmitting to others. eg. as a precursor to medical, dental procedures or occupations where close contact with other was unavoidable or travel into another country. Ask yourself how long have pregnancy tests been around. These are lateral flow tests that have high reliability and cost $16.60 for three test in Chemart. The covid RATS tests are likewise lateral flow tests, albeit with differing reagents to detect covid not pregnancy. They are not new technology, it’s just they are not very lucrative for the suppliers.
Cui bono I hear you ask; well that’s easy. The labs who do PCR tests and the people who collect, transport and provide the results. The labs get $85 per test, but you have to add to that collection, transport, quality control and reporting as well as the setting up of the infrastructure to manage all of this. The government gets the test for $85 but you or I have to pay $150 and don’t try shopping around, because it’s a bloody racket.
A very thoughtful and thought provoking piece. Especially the penultimate 4 paragraphs..
Thank You.
Follow the money..
Who owns the labs?
In the case of the once world standard CSL, not Australia since 1994.
Thanks to the arch class traitor, PJKeating.
That’s OK, but It’s not my own work. Watch the TWIV podcast that has people who actually know about viruses. They are scientists and it’s been their life’s work. But like the climate scientists, what would they know.
In answer to your question, “How so?’ the answer is two words – air crews.
Most air crews are foreign and don’t have to leave the airport and surely they can be tested. Blaming it on aircrews is just stupid.
Did you hear about the outbreak on the Insular Peninsula last year?
Until November 2020 crews were NOT required even to quarantine, on the assumption that they’d be flown out toot sweet as dead heads.
Didn’t really happen until mid 2021 as the logistics were so complex – rosters are ephemeral and multiple exciting new variants could mingle in the Qantas hotel at JetBase,SKSA
Pity about those who were citizens and went home.
So air crews don’t have to pass through immigration after an overseas flight? Or is it that the border force just waves them through. If so why? Either way border protection is a farce. They would probably wave your red herrings through as well along with the air crews.
So if Morrison isn’t going to prevent spread from air crews why bother with anything?
Whatever way you look at it he’s either an incompetent fool or a cynical prick. I’d go for the latter.