The numbers are not good for Scott Morrison. The first Newspoll of 2022 has Labor ahead of the Coalition 56-44 on a two-party-preferred basis, the worst result for the government since the aftermath of the 2018 leadership spill.
Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 41% and the government’s fell two points to 34%, a sign that a summer of high case numbers, widespread shortages of rapid antigen tests and empty supermarket shelves has left voters livid.
And while Morrison has until May to claw his way back, holds the advantage of pandemic incumbency, and proved in 2019 that bad polls can be quickly forgotten, his government is running out of opportunities to turn the tide.
The polling challenge
The 2019 election forced pundits and journalists to reevaluate their relationships with opinion polls. But while the only poll that matters is in May, what also matters is that right now none look good for the government.
Morrison’s net approval rating is now negative 19, his lowest since the aftermath of the bushfires in early 2020. Anthony Albanese’s approval is at net zero, but appears to be lifting. Morrison still leads as preferred prime minister, but it’s been trimmed to 43-41. And while Albanese has at times struggled to define a clear vision for his alternative prime ministership, he’s more popular than Bill Shorten was in the lead-up to 2019.
It isn’t just Newspoll that should be worrying the government. A Resolve survey published last month in the Nine newspapers saw the Coalition’s primary vote fall to 34%, behind Labor (35%) for the first time since their polling began last year. Roy Morgan has consistently had Labor well ahead, and now puts it up 56-44% on a two-party-preferred basis.
Meanwhile, other polling shows independents making headway in corners of Sydney and Melbourne, forcing the government to potentially drain resources defending the Liberal heartland.
From here, a Morrison comeback would be unprecedented. No prime minister has rebounded from an eight-point Newspoll margin this close to an election.
The political challenge
The weeks ahead won’t provide Morrison with an easy out. For much of last year, the government appeared to be hinging its reelection hopes on a normal, post-COVID summer. So far it’s been anything but.
His first big chance at a reset comes tomorrow when he delivers an address at the National Press Club. It’ll function as a big statement of the government’s pre-election vision, no doubt dropped out to favourable outlets ahead of time.
After that though, the government returns, reluctantly, for a parliamentary sitting fortnight next week. The final sittings of 2021 were chaotic and messy for the government. Expect no different.
Now a March election is off the cards, it has to try to ram through its contentious religious discrimination laws, with two parliamentary inquiries due to report on Friday. Any attempt to legislate it might run into a roadblock: conservative Liberal Senator Alex Antic is still vowing to withhold his vote unless the government takes action against “vaccine mandates”.
Alan Tudge, stood down from his role as education minister over allegations (which he denied) of an abusive affair, could be cleared to return to the frontbench. Seven days of question time, and four of Senate estimates will all bring more scrutiny to a government deeply uncomfortable with it.
And in the background, outside the bubble, the frustration about the handling of Omicron is yet to dissipate. Australia is still facing record daily COVID death tolls. Yesterday NSW Liberal Treasurer Matt Kean lashed his federal counterparts over their failure to provide business support.
Small business, aged care and hospitals are all struggling. After the next sitting fortnight, Parliament won’t return until late March for a rushed pre-election budget — a last sugar hit before heading to the polls.
Of course a lot can happen between now and the polls. Morrison will be hoping Australia’s Omicron wave falls away quickly. He knows the campaign trail is where he’s at his best. But with the government struggling, the country frustrated, and nowhere to hide in Parliament, it’s going to be a tough few months.
Morrison held onto the government by one seat and the $68,000,000 Face Book/ social media campaign run by Clivey Palmer.
I hope Clive has been more careful in the way he sources his campaign money, because he still has ASIC problem which could lead to jail time.
Miracal win? Nah, a rorted sports rort, by two, car parks in the billions and so it goes.
Let’s see how he goes when people ask how Nick Scali, Harvey Normal, Seven West (Stokes family), Cartier are much more important than the working poor?
No money to get people through this mess created by the let it rippers.
I know the media cannot resist this punditry and meaningless prediction, but seriously, all of Morrison’s political problems are exclusively of his and his government’s own making. When you lack any sort of national vision, leadership qualities, basic policy and bureaucratic competence and have zero integrity, exactly how is this miracle comeback going to happen?
He will say it was “GODS WILL”
Surely that show that he is not God’s favourate
I don’t know about that. The way labor’s not bothering to fight, another ‘miracle’ might be in the offing…
Bref,why get in the wsy of stupidity. Morrison manages to score own goals or one of his Ministers comes out with some stupid idea.
Give a fool enough tope and let him hsng himself!
I guess it’s too much to hope that an aspiring govt would want to win on the strength of their policies. Except for the occasional newspaper ad, I haven’t seen or heard of our local labor member for years.
Sadly Shortens loss reinvigorated politicians to argue instead about more vague things like culture wars and liberal/labor/3rd party bad. I don’t think we’ll have a recovery from that anytime soon.
Kishor, let us put this under microscope, this government is in crisis.
A minister of L/NP resigned in NT to go Independent L/NP ministers crossed the floor in Parliament to vote against the Government, ministers resigning along with sniping from likes of Christensen.
The Strawman Joyce is still trying to find a living brain cell that will give hime a coherent speech pattern.
Yepp and the ship of fools is adrift in ocean of discontent and the sails are still as it justs drifts to nowhere in particular and no idea how to get there!
I’ve always said that it only takes 3 MPs to resign from the Liberal Party and guarantee to vote for Labor in supply to bring down the government. I’m wondering if there’s 3 government MPs concerned enough to join together for the nuclear option?
Dead cat bounce for Omicron coming into February with return to school, and another Omicron variant beginning in Australia today which looks to be even fitter, and has increased hospitalisations fairly dramatically in first country’s hit..
For better or for worse, ‘living with COVID’ got assigned as an LNP policy, failures of ‘living with COVID’ with any increasing death rate, break down of supply chains, and no sugar hit of an adapted vaccine before election sends the LNP packing.
Throw Colbeck under the bus, Scotty, because the boy wonder is ambitious for you.
Delay the election till September, please, so albo can do you slowly.
No Albo won’t do him slowly, Smirko will do himself slowly and publicly.
Yes, you can get arrested for that!
The more often that the Invisible Man attempts to manifest, the less people notice.
They do hear that annoying whiney, lisping voice like a nanna on speed after finding the grandkid’s Ritalin whilst looking for her dentures, as attractive as a mozzy needing to be swatted.
Scammo a veritable bucket of charisma by comparison, you reckon
With charisma, & $5, you can get a cup of coffee.