Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has begun, with his “recognition” of separatist provinces in Ukraine a pretext for dispatching an invasion force to seize at least a significant chunk — and perhaps all — of a country he calls a US colony with a puppet regime.
The unprovoked attack will be a vast tragedy for Ukrainians, and brings the threat of a major land war in Europe to the fore for the first time since World War II. The ripples will reach Australia too, however insignificant they may be compared with the sufferings of Ukrainians.
The immediate impact will be a sharemarket dip and an energy price rise — which will be bad news for motorists but even better news for Australia’s big fossil fuel energy exporters.
Whether it has any ramifications politically remains to be seen. Scott Morrison, who is in deep trouble just weeks from the election, will be desperately hoping it does.
Given neither European countries nor the US intend to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, and instead will confine themselves to arms, medical equipment, civilian protective equipment and financial assistance (the EU agreed overnight to €1.2 billion in aid before Putin invaded), cherished opportunities for political photo ops with Australian troops will be thin on the ground.
But the more voters’ attention turns to foreign affairs and war, the happier the prime minister will be. For a start, domestic policy is full of problems for the government — aged care, religious discrimination legislation, anti-vax MPs, liberal independents on the warpath in urban seats and real wages falling for workers.
But Morrison is convinced the tradition of voters preferring conservative governments on national security remains true — whether or not his incessant lying about Labor being soft on China has worked — and that Australians will rally to him at a time of global insecurity.
It might also mean that any backbenchers on his side restive enough to contemplate dumping him might think twice about doing so during a moment of serious conflict abroad.
Morrison also has Defence Minister Peter Dutton, who will seize on the conflict to do what he does best — talk tough and rattle sabres, even if there’s no role for Australia to play. Labor’s opposition spokesman on defence, Brendan O’Connor, is solid and experienced, but low profile compared with the man who would be PM.
On the negative, Morrison has the least memorable, lowest-profile foreign affairs minister of the past 30 years in Marise Payne — currently attending the annual Munich Security Conference — who has a much lower profile than Labor’s Penny Wong. Expect Morrison and Dutton to do all the warning of the tsar and announce sanctions even after Payne returns from Europe.
Of more immediate interest for the government is whether China will take advantage of the crisis in relation to either Taiwan or Hong Kong, which will have more immediate, and exploitable, ramifications for a government insistent that Labor is controlled by Beijing, regardless of how closely the government has previously aligned itself with the Xi Jinping regime.
But the first challenge for Morrison will be to announce an adequate and appropriate response to Putin’s aggression — including significant sanctions and the downgrading of diplomatic relations.
Russia’s diplomats should be sent packing as a clear sign that the consequences of invasion will be long term and serious. Given our trade balance with Russia is heavily in our favour, significant sanctions would also signal Australia isn’t prepared to let financial benefit get in the way of responding to aggression.
Anything less than that would make Morrison and Dutton’s hardline talk sound hollow.
Where’s Tony Abbott, what’s he doing? Can’t he shirt-front Putin …. like he did last time?
I believe he’s having his budgie-line waxed. Should be good to go in a few hours.
He currently in Britain rewriting, at the request of Priti & Bozo, Blighty’s refugee policy.
Any chance they won’t let him go?
He’s there on his British passport – required when he was a paid speaker to various RWNJ groups and now as a government hire.
Perhaps he could be denied entry to Australia as an undesirable alien – thanks to Spud’s changes to the citizenship law?
Would Plodd pass that test?
Are you saying he never renounced his British citizenship? How the hell was he even PM in line with S44 of the constitution?
See Crikey passim, unless the archives have been sanitized – as has often been the case with ‘problematic’ issues.
As many here would know when even posted comments can be ‘disappeared‘ from current threads.
Abbott as well? Last week Alexander Downer was appointed to lead the review of the UK’s border force, but as far as I know Abbott is doing his bit for Blighty only as a ‘Trade Advisor for Global Britain’, whatever that is. There seems to be no limit to the self-harm and humiliation the UK government is prepared to inflict on the poor old country to maximise the Brexit damage.
You are correct – my mistake.
It is Lord Bunter the Downer doing the border force review, because of this country’s wonderful record in deciding who enters™ ®.
Abbott continues as the trade advisor.
Believe it or not, there are many backwoods tories who are spruiking for him to enter British politics, a’la Ming.
And still getting paid by Aussie Taxpayers, good job if you can get it and our pensioners are dying in nursing homes or dreading the cost of winter at home!
Do not forget that Menzies at one time thought that he might replace Churchill as UK PM.
More the Trade Advisor for US Koch linked or ‘Atlas Network’ think tanks e.g. IEA (= IPA) amongst others at 55 Tufton St London (New European & ByLine Times have ‘investigated’); behind Brexit and climate science denial.
No, that’s Downer, Abbott is doing trade but the Tories got it wrong way round?
Julie Bishop wasn’t it @ Putin, cabbage ears was hiding behind her skirt!
He was sighted in Budapest at the weekend on Saturday…. meeting PM Orban (mini Putin), a conservative think tank he’s linked to or on the upcoming Fox/Trumper CPAC in Budapest…..
As Abbott said when questioned about him shirt-fronting Putin, ” you bet you are, you bet I am”. Typical all-talk no action from one of many blabber-mouthed Liberal Prime Ministers.
Morrison & his useless Coalition government couldn’t even roll out national Covid 19 vaccinations or protect the vulnerable in aged care, let alone manage any future war. Just look at the outcomes of the last 3 wars in Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan to verify how incompetent various Coalition federal governments have been in handling past conflicts.
Thoughtlessly dragging our ADF into unnecessary, unwinnable conflicts where countless lives were lost, thousands of life-changing injuries inflicted & for what gain? Apart from some political point-scoring & crawling up the USA’s rear end, absolutely SFA.
It is disappointing to see Crikey pushing the same warmongering line as the MSM. I am not interested in being an apologist for Putin, but his recognition of the two regions who declared themselves independent from Ukraine in 2014 (after the the Crimea crisis) and decision to send peacekeepers into those regions is not the same thing as invading Ukraine, and to say so is to push the wag the dog rhetoric of those like Morrison (not to mention Biden and Johnson) who would love a war to distract their own nations from their ineptitude.
How is it ok for Russia to recognise these regions as independent states but not recognise Ukraine as an independent state and not respect its territorial integrity? Sending military forces into these regions of Ukraine is an invasion of another country and by any normal standard is an act of war. Whether the leaders of certain other countries are in any position to take the moral high ground is a different question.
Point out where I said it was “ok” for me?
You said “his recognition of the two regions who declared themselves independent from Ukraine in 2014 (after the the Crimea crisis) and decision to send peacekeepers into those regions is not the same thing as invading Ukraine”
If denying it is an invasion of Ukraine is different to saying it’s ok then I struggle to see any meaningful difference but I will not split hairs. My point is that sending Russian military forces into those regions is an invasion of Ukraine. It’s as clear as any invasion could be.
Is this a universal principle? If, for example, Taiwan regards itself as independent from China, but China denies that status, is it an act of aggression toward China to support Taiwanese independence? Could that be construed as an act of war?
Just to be “clear,” as you believe you are being.
It’s clear, among other things, because it is unlike Taiwan, which you obviously do not understand at all.
Beautifully argued.
“Just to be “clear,” as you believe you are being”, are you now arguing that Taiwan, which has been a separate political entity from communist China for some 70-odd years and which has been culturally different for hundreds of years, should submit to mainland China just because the CCP doesn’t recognise or want their independence ?
No. I hope that helps.
It was certainly culturally different when it was Formosa and before that Japanese, long before the Dragon Lady dragged her hapless husband & his defeated troops across the strait.
History Perhaps? Kiev was the original Rus capital before Russia expanded into what we now know as Russia.
It is unlikely this invasion would ever have occurred if Ukraine remained neutral and not looked at NATO membership. . If Canada decided to ally with Russia , how would USA react? Their actions against Cuba possibly answered that question
Kiev, or maybe it’s Kyiv, should be Russian? Really? Why not the other way round – how about demanding Russia become part of Ukraine, it makes sense the same way? Looking back to how things were in times long gone just creates countless reasons why just about all countries with any significant history have a claim over some other country or territory. The Welsh, who are the Britons of Roman times, can claim all of England and Wales. The borders of Germany have moved all over the place even in the period since its unification, so which period in history should we say is ‘right’ for that country? At the very least Konigsberg, the historic Prussian capital, should be in Germany and not in Russia, wouldn’t you say? Let’s return to the original inhabitants all those lands taken by European colonists in North and South America, and of course Australia. Sorting out the Balkans (again) offers some great opportunities. Kosovo was the centre of the medieval Serbian empire, so would you hand it over to Serbia now? Serbia thinks you should.
The NATO expansion question is separate. It has been handled abysmally. But invading neighbours is wrong. The USA keeps doing it and the USA is wrong. China does it and China is wrong. Now Russia is doing it and Russia is wrong.
Not true, an exaggeration of Russian agitprop; any NATO membership was not going to happen for a long time…. either way, how is NATO an offensive threat apart from centuries old empire ‘spheres of influence’? (Russia today is neither the old empire nor the Soviets; many former Soviet Republics suffer the resource curse, autocracy and corruption).
EU like the NATO is an equal threat to Putin regime and oligarchs (plus Koch think tanks, UK Tories, GOP & many LNP), why?
As opposed to most working age/younger being more outward looking/mobile citizens, Putin’s inner circle and oligarchs, have strong antipathy towards liberal democracy, climate science/environment, rule of law, taxes, transparency, free media, open society, NGOs, curricula etc. (bit like the Tories, LNP & GOP?)
However, this does not discourage the same from wanting to live with family in the EU, UK etc., contradiction?
If they go ahead with threats, i.e the UK Govt. in cancelling ‘golden visas’ etc. of Russian (potentially many others) oligarchs, family, friends and state officials/apparatchiks, one hopes to hear them squeal in facing Putin again and life back in Russia….. (majority of Russians living in e.g. EU are normal educated working middle class who have antipathy towards both Russia and Putin, and want a future, that we take for granted).
Agree, while we are being overpopulated by Putin hero worshippers today…. Abbott aggressive macho influence has stuck? Meeting of minds between ageing radical right and lunuatic left ideologues…. with suboptimal skills of critical analysis but a need to believe?
I see that some people do not get it. Civilians of Donbass region were shelled, bullied, and killed from 2014.
Putin is trying to stop it. It is irrelevant how biased you to Mr. Putin, and trust me you do not know anything about him. I do, and I still do not like him. But, in this situation he is a peacekeeper, and you are (not Mark) are warmongers.
People of Donbass deserved to have some piece. And sanctions from USA, as peace does come free, unless you are a US puppet, just like us.
“I see that some people do not get it. Civilians of Donbass region were shelled, bullied, and killed from 2014.”
..by the invading little green men from Russia and the gangs supporting them.
“Putin is trying to stop it.”
Putin could have stopped it any time, after all he sent them in to begin the whole trouble, all he had to do was order them to go back home.
Agreed Mark. Read a couple of interesting articles in Al Jazeera today. They have a somewhat different version of events than our own MSM. Including Polls taken of Ukrainian citizens that says they don’t believe much of what Joe Biden and the USA says, and that only 1 in 5, or 20%, of Ukrainians beleive Russia will invade their Country. Their belief is that the USA want the War as will benefit their own Country. (Sounds similar to Scott Morrison here in Australia).
‘I am not interested in being an apologist for Putin’; I have heard this one before when people then go onto hero worship and deflect from Putin; my enemy’s enemy is my friend? All very well to take an abstract distant approach: ‘to send peacekeepers into those regions is not the same thing as invading Ukraine’ yet Ukraine has been accused of being ‘an offensive threat’ in lead up?
Try telling people in Ukraine to shut up Ukraine as most citizens of working age or youth (and most urbanised in Russia inc. civil society, media etc.; Putin lost influence in major cities long ago), who look west to open societies, liberal democracy, rule of law etc.; especially those who happen to have been born in these eastern regions.
This is what Putin, Erdogan and other autocratic leaders are afraid of, due to their own hubris, corruption, greed, going too far and few if any exit choices, but they make things worse…..
However, there is some resonance in and a gift to the ‘Anglosphere’ too i.e. allows a troubled Johnson to look ‘Churchillian’, Morrison ‘to keep us safe’ and Fox/GOP Trumpers can pile into Biden and the Democrats (mid-terms coming) for being ‘incompetent’; the latter is what occurred last time with Obama being blamed for invasion 2014.
The issue in Australia is that media mostly feed US and/or UK views, but disappear the work and reporting of various EU leaders; the Anglosphere project of creating a nirvana for corporate donors, favourites etc., no wonder Trump et al. admire Putin?
The two regions have I believe, a population of around 1 million. As Putin has armies totaling around 195,000 plus untold weapons of aggression, it’s a pretty long shot and deliberately misleading to call a ration of 20% armed forces to population ‘peacekeepers’.
Those numbers are those of a ‘blitzkreig’ and way more than necessary for even an occupying force.
Conservatives love division so a war will be right up their alley. It doesn’t hurt that they make money out one either. Scotty and PDutty will be rubbing their hands together in anticipation. Warmonger’s, the pair of them.
Zombie Doctrine is what Morrison might see as an election advantage in the war, but so many things the LNP have and haven’t done has left Australians in a precarious situation. Shutting down the car industry at a time of transition to electrical vehicles and not encouraging the uptake of EVs, leaving our fuel security in jeopardy with the reliance on fossil fuels. The attempts to slow the role of electricity production from renewables.
Morrison has done his usual thing of saying what he won’t do as to not sending troops but what is he going to do, wait for Labor’s suggestions and announce them as his, just like during the pandemic with Jobkeeper and jobseeker.
How many Australian diplomats to send away for invading Iraq/Afghanistan etc.?
Doesn’t count when we do it cause fweedum or something.