Russian police detain a protester in St Petersburg (Image: AAP/EPA/Anatoly Maltsev)

Lines stretch around the block at banks in Russia. News outlets are forbidden to use the word “war” when covering Ukraine. TikTok and Netflix have been suspended. The rouble has fallen to a record low, interest rates are soaring and, as of this morning, the US has banned Russian oil imports.

International sanctions and backlash against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are causing havoc for citizens. But while the country faces a potential exodus of young, progressive professionals, it’s not clear how many are against the war or whether it will spur political action or anti-Putin sentiment.

How are Russians affected?

Reaction from the international community to the invasion of Ukraine has been swift and harsh. The assets of oligarchs have been targeted, and sanctions have caused the rouble to collapse and the Russian stock exchange to close. SWIFT international bank transfers have been suspended, affecting those who freelance for international companies, and the assets of Russia’s central bank have been frozen to stop Russia from selling them off. There’s a real risk of a recession.

But the effects aren’t just monetary: tens of thousands of Russians abroad face delays getting home as countries including Canada, the US and the UK ban Russian flights from their airspace, and Boeing and Airbus stopped supplying parts to Russian airlines. 

Prices for electronics and appliances are climbing as companies including IKEA, Nike, Apple, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz stop their operations. McDonald’s has closed its 847 Russian stores.

The impacts for many range from annoying to utterly devastating. But it’s not clear how long they will last — or whether they’ll cause a backlash for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Country-wide anti-war protests have erupted, and at demonstrations in 53 cities more than 13,000 people have reportedly detained by police. This is no small feat: protesting in Russia is illegal without government permission and anti-government protests are rare. Russian feminists have published a manifesto against the invasion and top oligarchs are speaking out against the war in a rare act of public dissent against Putin.

But in a country where even mentioning the word “war” when speaking about Ukraine carries heavy penalties, knowing exactly how many are against it is tough.

ANU Russia expert Kirill Nourzhanov — who is a Kazakh, Russian and Australian national — tells Crikey he suspects the protesters are a small minority in a country of 144 million.

“It’s urbanite, highly educated, highly Westernised segments of the population who protest,” he said.

Support for Putin has soared in the days since the invasion, with 70% of polled Russians approving of his actions in late February. 

According to the results of a recent independent phone survey shared with The Washington Post, about 58% of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, and 23% oppose it.

“To say that anti-war sentiment is engulfing Russia would be an exaggeration at this point in time, but who knows how it’s going to pan out a month from now?” Nourzhanov said. 

Who’s most likely to leave?

Those more likely to leave Russia are people from the city, who are more likely to have passports, speak English and work in high-demand fields such as finance, science and technology and able to get jobs abroad. This trend was happening long before the invasion. Between 1996 and 2020 there was a net exodus of  21.6% in neuroscience, 16.4% in mathematics and 15.1% in biochemistry. 

It’s estimated about one in three Russians hold a passport, Nourzhanov said, and Putin has forbidden anyone from leaving the country with more than US$10,000. 

Russian politics expert at Sydney University’s department of international relations Professor emeritus Graeme Gill says there’s been a significant outflow of well-educated and wealthy people across the past 30 years and more may choose to leave because of the invasion. 

“They may find that their capacity to continue to work freely in Russia is becoming more restricted than in the past as a result of this general crackdown and as a result of the war,” he said. 

While again this was a minority, Gill says it could have a massive impact on Russia’s economy.

“These are people who are potentially going to be crucial for future development in high-tech areas,” he said. “Putin has not encouraged economic reform and overwhelmingly relies on oil and gas exports, and needs to diversify away from that.” 

Misinformation muddies the water 

Those in the inner city may be upset by social media crackdowns, constraints on bank transfers and a falling rouble — but support for Putin in Moscow and St Petersburg has been lower than in the regions, Gill says. 

“If shops in the city are running out of food, I think opposition to Putin will increase … but those in the countryside who are traditionally more supportive of Putin are likely to rely on their own farms and will accept that issues are down to the ‘nefarious West’,” he said. 

Nourzhanov says although the West may be covering protests, there was a groundswell of patriotic support on Russian social media sites such as VK, with many calling for Ukraine to be “reunited” with Russia, calling to “liberate” Ukraine and get rid of the “neo-Nazi NATO scourge”. 

“There’s information warfare on both sides, and a lot of the images and stories about the Russian losses are likely greatly exaggerated,” he said. 

Russians had survived the 2014 sanctions and blamed the West for them — not Putin, he says. 

“[Many believe] it will create an autocratic economy separate from the West and will make ends meet themselves,” he said. “I’m not convinced for a second that the West is winning and this moral crusade is gaining friction with the Russians beyond the city slickers in Moscow.”