Yesterday Peter Dutton dropped an image on his Twitter feed announcing Australia’s latest military build-up, which put him front and centre and relegating a blurred-out Scott Morrison to the background.
Whether or not the defence minister’s social media team puts much thought into such things, the optics were clear — Dutton positioning himself as the driving force on national security matters, and the natural successor to Morrison for the Liberal leadership should the unthinkable happen.
Dutton’s cheeky bit of visual play came amid yet another tough week for a government that seems forever on the back foot during moments of crisis.
Morrison had to face deep local anger when he arrived in Lismore on Wednesday, battling a perception that the government didn’t move fast enough to send in Australian Defence Force personnel and other support as catastrophic floods hammered the northern rivers.
Some of the frustration at Morrison is optical — he didn’t seem “present” during the crisis and couldn’t cut the “right” tone, a reminder of his tin-eared response to the Black Summer bushfires. Some of this critique is a little unfair, given the prime minister was in COVID isolation until Wednesday, and headed to Lismore as soon as he was released.
But even that whirlwind visit seemed calculated to mitigate the damage against Morrison. He visited flood victims away from news cameras in the morning, much to the frustration of the press gallery. When he did front the cameras he copped an earful from local journalists wondering why regular citizens had to do the heavy lifting.
Labor, meanwhile, wondered why the government waited until Morrison was able to front the cameras before declaring a national emergency, more than a week after floodwaters started besieging the east coast.
With all that raging in the background, Morrison and Dutton pivoted to the comfortable terrain of national security, announcing a $38 billion plan to boost ADF personnel to nearly 80,000 by 2040.
It gave the government an opportunity to get out on the front foot and attack Labor for being “weak” on national security, consistent with the “khaki election” tactics it’s been trying on over the past few months. Morrison hit out at Labor for cutting defence spending last time it was in government, despite Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese almost simultaneously promising he’d do nothing of the sort.
But there’s evidence voters aren’t really buying the khaki election push. For people in flood-ravaged areas, the source of anger is the speed it took to deploy military support during the floods, not whether we’ve got enough troops to scare off Beijing.
Meanwhile this week’s Essential poll found respondents didn’t think the Coalition would manage a war any better than Labor. An earlier survey found voters trusted the opposition more on the China relationship.
And all the military bluster buried the arguably more important news: that after years without high-level contact, Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne met China’s new ambassador Xiao Qian and that Beijing could be willing to backtrack on its 14 disputes with Australia.
But the government has already gone all in on a militarised election campaign, which obliterates such nuance and leaves them potentially missing where the electorate really is.
But for Dutton — the government’s bluntest operator — it is strong territory. Nobody has pushed the “Labor weak on China and foreign threats” line more vociferously. And as defence minister, the military build-up puts him centre stage for the big pre-election announcements.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, the other man most likely to succeed Morrison, also wanted in on the defence stuff, headlining his address to The Australian Financial Review’s platinum 70th dinner “Securing Australia in an increasingly uncertain world”.
Frydenberg would probably rather be talking about tax relief or something, but war in Ukraine, the omnipresent China threat that the government has done so much to drum up, and the desperation to frame a difficult election campaign around national security issues meant he had to do otherwise.
Avoid it, and he risks further losing the moment to Dutton.
Mr Dutton as Defence Minister needs to get his ducks in a row before launching into election promises such as boosting Defence numbers by 20,000 by 2040.
First of all there are the ongoing problems with,
F-35 Aircraft, a mixed bag of batch numbers,
The Hunter (Class 26), an idea to keep British shipyards busy, too fat, too slow, unproven. Sold to the commonwealth sucker’s Australia and Canada.
The Miai and Mia2 tanks, 29 tonnes of metal unable to be moved, in any realistic quantity and time, to Australia or South-East Asia.
The 1000 Hawkie vehicles in store with faulty brakes.
The Bush-master with turrets too heavy, guns that can only fire German Ammunition and wheels that are only made in France.
The heavy lift vessels that can’t work in water polluted with ash.
Mr. Abbott wanted Japanese Submarines, Mr. Turnbull want French Submarines, Mr Morrison wants US/UK Nuclear powered submarines. There is no design, no planned strategic or tactical use, no security, no base ( apart from Brisbane and its jellyfish) , known targets or how to gain the necessary intelligence, no training colleges for officers and crew, no tactical training.
Lastly the current separation of ADF members runs at about 5,500 per year. If Dutton wants an extra 18,000 by 2040 then he needs to recruit around 6,500 per year for 18 years to cover separation and increased retention numbers. Good luck with all that Mr. Dutton. .
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Easily fixable. Made in China.
But, apart from the above, everything is just dunky-hoary?
I am relieved.
Just hope the punters aren’t fooled by this nonsense. Scotty’s mob have done everything they possibly can to stuff the China relationship – not helping one iota try to conflate it with the Ukraine issue. I hope the press reports that the punters aren’t too fooled isn’t just wishful thinking!
I would expect Peta Credlin and hubby are pushing the China fear n loathing line Rupert is just so good at.
Over the last few years enlistments in the military have lagged below forecasts, so how will the Morrison mob increase numbers in the future?
As for military procurement, possible subs by 2040 at a massively increased cost , even when not counting the cost of the French contract so far.
Navy vessels which blow up electrically when on mercy missions, while two Chinese vessels continue their benevolent actions ,
Land vehicles with faulty brakes
Helicopters which do not fly
Jet fighters which cannot handle warm conditions
So far they have proved to militarily inept!
Whitlam after Cyclone Tracy was able to get the military in the next day , with a Major General there immediately.
Labor was able to deploy the military immediately but Dutton reguires 10 days?
They probably think they will increase chinese immigration with citizenship dependent on a 2 year stint in national service.
More shamefully this government requires 10 days to mobilise after being warned four months ago.
No contingency planning, no preparation, and therefore abysmal performance when people need it.
I just don’t get it.
Why does an abject failure want another term?
I’m fine with Mutton leading a khaki election push – as long as it is over the nearest cliff and he takes the rest of the lemmings with him.
Dutton’s my favourite avatar in the metaverse. Stylishly creepy but almost plausible as a human being. He epitomises the putinous school of government: if you can’t please the people by managing the country, you can certainly frighten them.by creating unscrupulous adversaries.
Seriously … Australia mentions Barnaby Joyce, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton as actual, acting or potential leaders.