Labor is inching towards a narrow majority government despite recording a primary vote of just 32.8%. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party looks for answers after its devastating defeat.
The ALP finished up the night on 72 seats, four short of what’s needed to govern in its own right, but enough for Anthony Albanese to claim victory as prime minister-elect.
When counting resumed this morning, Labor edged ahead in a number of line-ball seats. It leads in Liberal-held Bennelong, Sturt and Deakin, the latter now called as a likely gain by the ABC. The party looks set to narrowly hang on in Lingiari and Lyons, and could see off a Greens scare in Macnamara.
In Gilmore, so far the only potential Liberal gain, Labor is back in front. If Labor wins those seven seats, it will have a majority of 79. It could pick up two more unexpected gains — it’s running neck and neck in Menzies, just 45 votes short, and is a few hundred behind in Moore, never a target seat but in play thanks to the huge swing in Western Australia.
Labor’s biggest, most unnecessary loss is in the once-safe seat of Fowler, in Sydney’s diverse south-west, where independent Dai Le has defeated blow-in Kristina Keneally. The Greens’ Max Chandler-Mather has won Kevin Rudd’s old seat of Griffith from Terri Butler.
Over in the Senate, early signs are pointing to a huge result for progressives who could hold a majority in the upper house. Independent David Pocock is on track to unseat Zed Seselja in the ACT. The Greens look poised to pick up an additional seat in NSW, SA and Queensland, with the latter coming at the expense of hard-right LNP rising star Amanda Stoker and One Nation leader Pauline Hanson. The Lambie Network’s Tammy Tyrrell is poised to win a spot in Tasmania at veteran conservative Liberal Eric Abetz’s expense.
Despite big progressive wins across the country, this still isn’t a clear landslide victory for Labor, and the election will end the historical narrative that it can only win from opposition on the back of a sweeping, definitive swing in its favour.
But as counting continues, what’s clear is that this is a landslide defeat for the Liberal Party. The Coalition is likely to finish up with fewer than 60 seats in the House of Representatives — its worst showing at an election since 1983.
The party has been particularly devastated in the capital cities where it lost seats to Labor, the Greens and teal independents. So far the Liberals have just one seat in Melbourne, and are looking at three at best. It could wind up with none in Adelaide and Perth.
Now the recriminations must begin for a party already bitterly divided well before the campaign kicked off. Asked to diagnose what went wrong for the party, Simon Birmingham, one of the few moderates left, pointed to the unnecessarily protracted same-sex marriage debate and the National Energy Guarantee as key turning points in driving socially progressive Liberal voters away.
Birmingham also said Australia should commit to increasing its 2030 emissions reduction target of 26% to 28%.
It was a different story over on Sky News, where conservative Senator Alex Antic had his own diagnosis for the party’s electoral collapse: “The Liberal Party’s experiment with the poison of leftism and progressivism must be over.”
But for NSW Treasurer Matt Kean, the state’s most powerful moderate, the message was that the party had veered away from the heartland: “When the Liberal Party goes too far to the right, we lose in the centre.”
There will be many more days of sniping, as conservatives and moderates within the crumbling broad church jostle to accuse the other side of leading the party to its huge defeat.
Morrison, who announced last night he would step down as leader, must shoulder a huge chunk of the blame — his abrasive leadership style clearly alienated voters across the country.
With Josh Frydenberg gone, and the party shorn of moderates, the path is clear for Peter Dutton to step up as opposition leader. Angus Taylor and Dan Tehan are both outside names that have been thrown into the mix.
Angas Taylor – the most brazenly corrupt politician (allegedly) at a Federal level I have seen – is a potential leader? I guess the donors will line up behind him….
(Obviously the good people of Hume are very comfortable with his ineptitude and nest feathering).
Trust me, not all the good people of Hume are comfortable with him. I had hopes for Penny Ackery to at least give him a run for his money, but unfortunately she wasn’t able to get any significant media coverage (unlike a bunch of other teal indies) – had she gotten more coverage she might have been able to pull ahead of Labor and make the seat live; as it is, she’s fallen a few percent short (and Taylor has maintained a few percent too much of his primary) to get there.
My next hope is that the federal ICAC will take him out – he’s certainly corrupt enough to justify it.
I had hopes for Penny Ackery, too, himi, and donated to the excellent “Vote Angus Out” campaign from where I live near Geelong. On 19 May 2021, in response to my query as to how far and wide supporters were spread, I was advised that about 80 per cent were from inside the electorate and 20 per cent were from all over the country”.
The relentless historical nature of democratic politics very probably means that the forces against Dodgy Angus will succeed next time.
Yes, my feeling too himi. I read “justify” as “enjoy”. I’d certainly enjoy it! If he was Opposition leader, how quickly would ICAC get to him? Just wondering.
Oh Parliamentary libs, you fools, please anoint Angus Taylor as your leader – so the FICAC can take out a sitting LNP opposition leader in its first month of operation. He is in deep WATER!!!
Appointing Peter Dutton as the Leader of the Opposition won’t do much to placate what’s left of the more Centrist LNP voter bloc. Angus Taylor in any position is going from the ridiculous to the patently absurd. In any case, when Labor introduces a federal ICAC, Well Done Angus will be toast.
In fact how many of the current opposition benches will be abruptly emptied as the rats scurry for the nearest hole?
With the exception of Frydenberg, the ones the electorate took out were the ones NOT embroiled in salacious rumours. How ironic! Scomo – political genius!!!
Please, please put Dutton up as leader! That will ensure Labor/Green/Teal governments for a generation.
That was the thought when Abbott rolled Talcum but Krudd lacked the guts to call an election to obliterate him.
The rest result of the failure was a sad, destructive history.
so true and i can see the stars lining up with a repeat performance aided by news corp
My point exactly. Who can imagine a more revolting person to lead?
Haven’t they learnt anything? Surely they would have to consider a female, as a candidate for leader or deputy leader.
Re the fourth para: it wouldn’t have a majority of 79. The majority is not the number of seats held. The majority would be the difference between 79 and the rest (ie 72) which would equal 7. Interestingly, that was Gough’s majority in 1972.
Correction, Gough’s was 9 in 1972. Seven was the LCP majority in 1969. Apology for confusion.
The shout-at-the-clouds loons on After Dark will be foaming at the mouth over the real culprit behind the catastrophic Liberal implosion: the ABC
With the change of government we can now enjoy Sky after Dark as the unscripted over the top satire of conservatives that it is. So bad it’s good. At least in short doses.
yep, watched on election night, small dose, but as you say really good satire
You obviously don’t watch the ABC. Chairman Ita Buttrose belongs to the Liberal Party, the board is stacked with Liberal Party and ex Murdoch goons, and ex- government funds it.
Ah, communicating on the internet… I’m 99.9% certain Mal described, not embraced, the idiocy on Sky after dark.