Just two-thirds of voters backed the major parties in the 2022 election — about 35% for the Coalition, and just under 33% for Labor.
Those numbers will shift as the count finalises, and Labor’s primary vote was assuredly suppressed by tactical voting by Labor voters in favour of independents. But Australia’s political map has changed dramatically.
This is about polarisation. Both major parties are attempting to keep in step with what they perceive as “mainstream Australia”. But in doing so, both are losing affluent urban electorates. The Liberals are the most obvious victims, losing heartland Sydney, Perth and Melbourne seats to independents. But Labor has lost Griffith in Brisbane, and may see the Greens take Ryan from the LNP in Brisbane and lose Macnamara — the old Melbourne Ports — to the Greens as well. (Labor also contrived to lose Fowler in suburban Sydney due to the disastrous decision to parachute Kristina Keneally into that seat, leaving the way open for a Liberal-linked independent to seize it.)
These urban electorates are not interested in being part of a “broad church” if that church includes climate denialists or feet-draggers on climate action. They want climate action yesterday, and have little patience with anyone offering a reason for delay.
The sheer visceral hatred of Scott Morrison undoubtedly played a role, but the fate of both major parties in urban seats, not just the Liberals, reflects that this is about electorates that won’t tolerate anything less than serious, rapid action.
In his (very good) victory speech, Anthony Albanese declared that the climate wars were at an end. While an alluring possibility, there are a couple of reasons to doubt it. First, whatever minimal individual impetus there was within the Liberal Party for climate action has been deleted by the success of the teals. The Liberal Party is now a far more right-wing party, and it will be under the leadership of Peter Dutton. And the proportional strength of the Nationals within the Coalition has grown significantly: the Nationals will have more shadow ministries and wield more control within the joint partyroom.
Moreover, News Corp remains a hotbed of climate denialism, along with support for a variety of other extreme-right causes. It will continue to push the Coalition to the right, despite the evident decline of its influence. The lunatic fascists at Sky After Dark will be feral.
The other reason to be sceptical is that the climate wars can’t “end” with a de facto surrender to denialism. Labor’s 2030 target of a 43% reduction is much stronger than the Coalition’s, but not good enough. We know from fossil fuel lobby the International Energy Agency what is needed for a true “net zero” goal: the cessation of new fossil fuel projects and the rapid phase-out of unabated coal-fired power.
If they are to deliver on their commitment to stronger climate action, the teal independents and the Greens must push Labor hard to move much more rapidly towards decarbonisation — including by preventing new fossil fuel export projects and shutting down existing ones.
So in an important sense it’s merely that one phase of the climate wars has ended and another is about to commence.
It’s a theme Crikey has repeated for a while: we need to resolve this tension between those who understand the need for urgent climate action and those who believe it is — or seek to portray it as — a threat to their economic interests.
Matt Kean in NSW has shown how it can be resolved, including by working effectively with the NSW Nationals on regional renewables projects. It’s not just about getting faster action on climate — it’s about preventing toxic polarisation from driving us further apart.
Morrison dedicated himself to widening and exploiting divisions between Australians. Appropriately, he was rewarded with losing his job. But to prevent those divisions from widening further, we need high quality leadership on climate that brings everyone along.
Is Albanese up to the task? Let’s hope so, for Australia’s sake.
Scummo was prescient, if a bit early – “It’s not my job!”.
Unfortunately it was, for far too long.
The last Victorian election saw the loss of the Liberal leader’s seat and near loss of other Blue ribbon seats A few commentators saw the result as the educated voters with a view forward deciding the Liberal party was more interested in the divisive, wedging political model that had worked in the past. They appreciated the urgency of action to address climate change and the need to switch to renewable energy .
The same thinking suburban voters deserted the liberals at the federal level ,some to the brilliant Voices candidates ,some to the Greens and there were a few strong local candidates .
Very interesting to hear the former PM complain about Crikeya few weeks before the election. We must have done our bit to rid this country of one of our most divisive PM since federation .
Congratulations to the new government and let’s get on with reversing the damage done by the Liberal /Nat /CP minority Luddite government
name calling very immature
Good to see murdoch’s lot, in spite of best endeavours, failed dismally.
one hopes that Albanese, freed from having to keep close to LNP and not rock the boat to get elected, will work enthusiastically with the Teals and leave a really positive legacy.
And the Greens, whose vote increased dramatically
I hope so too and would love to see the Murdochracy News Corp cut down to size. The bias shown and the vitriol spewed out on Sky-After-Dark is astounding. The odd thing is that it’s not “Saturday Night Live”. Years ago, I thought Andrew Bolt was attempting heavy-handed satire.
We must never-ever allow anything remotely like such a takeover of our MSM again.
The sites chosen by S-f-M for the debates were ominous and plain for us all to see. He even refused the National Press Club as well as the ABC which definitely gave the impression he was not game to appear before “real” journalism.
Albo has really gained so much in confidence since Day 1 and I that imagine to throw himself straight back into the campaign post Covid took a toll. It was great to see him at his short presser today. Especially with the warning given to reporters: “don’t interrupt”. Good one, PM Albanese!
Please Labor don’t be complacent about neutering Murdoch’s news corp. The bastard won’t stop and must be confronted!
Yes, Bernard. “let’s hope so for Australia’s sake” (and the Planet’s?). Thank you and Crikey for keeping going.
Yes. Thank you Bernard and the team at at Crikey who was one of my trusted sources in the election build up. You regularly reported against the grain of the MSM press pack. The media proprietors will have to rebuild trust if they ever want to build readership and return to balanced journalism.
Indeed, thank you to the team at Crikey. You’ve all earned gold stars – when S-f-M had a blast at your team, that was when I knew “we” were on the right track.
Anthony has a reputation for negotiating well with others. If Labor, Greens and the Independent’s work well together, I think they will accomplish many positive outcomes for Australia. The make up of this new parliament is rather exciting and I look forward to it bringing back integrity and decency.
The only ‘fly in the ointment’ is the still widely accepted debt and deficit mythology of mainstream economists.
Recommend reading for all independents: Stephanie Kelton’s NYT best-seller; ‘The Deficit Myth’.
Otherwise private financiers will continue to demand they retain the sole right to create money (when they write loans for credit worthy customers), thereby forcing the the public sector (government) to tax or borrow in order to spend.
Watch out for all the upcoming arguments re funding climate change-policy, eg, carbon taxes, CCS, and the need to maintain the wages of all fossil workers during the transition to a green economy, with profit-seeking fossil companies reluctant to shut down. Only government can deal with these complexities and political tensions, and only when the mainstream ‘balanced budget‘ narrative is relegated to the dust-bin of history.
When will climate huggers & tree warmers understand that saving the environment is just too expensive?
It will need yooog tax breaks, incentives, amortizations and subsidies.
Oh. loki! What on earth do you think is going to save you from the heatwaves??
…whooooshhh….
Thanks, ratty 100% on the money. The Coalition has been a true ostrich on climate change.
I dont think we need to worry about the libs anymore. They were rejected by liberal minded people because the socalled Liberal party isnt liberal anymore. And as you say it is now even more right wing than before so its influence will drop off even more. Which is just as well. Dinosaurs.