Dai Le’s campaign for the Western Sydney seat of Fowler “ran on the smell of an oily rag” — a stark contrast to the well-funded campaigns of other independents this election, or the national grassroots infrastructure the Greens have developed over two decades.
People assumed Fowler would be a contest between an experienced campaigner and a relative amateur. They were right: Kristina Keneally has never won a competitive campaign before.
In 2003, intervention by Labor’s head office ensured Keneally would win her first preselection battle in the NSW state seat of Heffron — a seat safely in Labor hands for 30 years. When the aggrieved former member for Heffron, Deirdre Grusovin, complained the process had been undemocratic, Keneally told the Sydney Morning Herald:
“I don’t care if people think I’m a puppet put in by head office, because I know that’s not true. I’ll be judged by my work.”
After a rapid rise through the Labor-right ranks and a brief stint as a popular premier, Keneally led the NSW Labor Party to a historic defeat from which they are still recovering. She resigned from state Parliament the following year.
Accusations of being a “parachute candidate” dogged her bruising loss against John Alexander in the 2017 Bennelong byelection. This was perhaps a little unfair, given she lived only 800m outside the electorate.
In 2018 Keneally received a second shot at federal politics when she was appointed to fill the casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Sam Dastyari, and was able to retain her safe spot on the Labor Senate ticket the following election.
This may be why Dai Le volunteers told me they saw Keneally making “rookie mistakes” campaigning, like standing in the sun too long and exhausting herself at pre-polls.
In contrast, Le’s local campaign machinery has been running virtually non-stop since 2016. Her election to federal Parliament ran as an extension of the local independent uprising led by her and Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone.
On the face of it, Le and Carbone are an odd political pairing, but they share a distaste for party politics. Le was expelled from the Liberal Party for running as an independent in the Fairfield local council elections. The same year, Carbone decided to jump rather than be pushed out of the Labor Party, when an “unholy alliance” led by Labor-right powerbroker Joe Tripodi sought to unseat him as mayor.
It backfired. Le and Carbone ran what amounted to a joint independent mayoral campaign, and Carbone was returned as an independent mayor in 2016 with Le as his deputy, securing a 14.1% swing against Labor and adding two more independents to the council.
The 2021 Fairfield local government elections were a bloodbath for the major parties. Carbone, Le and their allied independent council candidates received a 52.4% swing against the major parties, and Carbone was returned as Fairfield mayor with 73.5% of the primary vote. After the dust had settled, independents controlled 10 of the 13 seats on the Fairfield council.
In September that same year, Keneally, herself a former factional ally of Tripodi, announced her candidacy for Fowler.
Almost immediately murmurs began in the community about whether Le or Carbone would challenge her as an independent, or whether they would run a “dual independent” ticket similar to the last two mayoral races. Ultimately, the decision was made that Le would run, and Carbone would remain mayor.
While Le concedes she “may have run anyway”, Keneally’s candidacy provided the rocket fuel that propelled her to victory.
Keneally was always likely to struggle with grassroots support in the community given the controversy around her preselection over the locally preferred candidate, Tu Le. This may be why she was not seen much around Fowler until the pre-polls began.
When she began campaigning in earnest at pre-polls, she must have sensed danger. Her campaign rapidly turned negative, with corflutes and signs appearing that featured Scott Morrison and Dai Le standing next to each other with the text “Dai Le and Scott Morrison: Don’t risk a Liberal government”.
The AEC found the signs were misleading and ordered them removed, but they were still visible in some parts of Cabramatta on election day. Although Le’s campaign also used negative signage, it was more cheeky than offensively wrong: a map showing the distance between Fairfield and Scotland Island; reminders of Keneally’s former association with Tripodi and retired politician and convicted criminal Eddie Obeid.
“When the history of this campaign is written, it’s going to go down as one of the dirtiest campaigns in history,” said Mayor Carbone.
On election day, morale appeared comparatively low among Labor volunteers. Most did not really want to talk about Keneally, and always steered our conversations back towards the necessity of removing Morrison.
At Yennora Public School, a polling station on the border of Fowler and McMahon, a Labor volunteer named Tony told me he was pulling a second shift handing out for Keneally after earlier handing out for Chris Bowen.
Tony said he was “hopeful” of a Keneally victory.
“Look, it’s always hard to tell when someone moves into an electorate, but I think she’s in with a very good chance … she’s an experienced candidate, and I’m expecting her to win,” Tony said.
“It’s been busy most of the day, and we’ve been getting great feedback.”
This was one of few booths Keneally would win by night’s end.
Le’s volunteers were largely reluctant to speak to me. Some were industriously focusing on making sure they talked to every single voter. Some didn’t feel comfortable speaking in English. Others were concerned I would “twist their words”.
The unstated fear was clear enough. The people of Western Sydney felt decisions about lockdowns were made for political, rather than public health, reasons. They felt ignored or vilified by the media, and didn’t trust me — nor anyone else not from their community — to tell their stories without turning them into parochial caricatures.
At Le’s election night party, the reception could not have been more different. A celebratory atmosphere dominated from the moment the polls closed, and the consensus believed it would be tight. People wanted to talk, though some more than others.
“Alright, leave my wife alone, I’ll do your interview,” Carbone laughs at me when I accost her with a microphone.
“If we get Dai in, and Morrison out, that’s a double-barrel,” Carbone says. “If we win, it’s because what we do, we do with our hearts, for this community.”
Early in the campaign, Le told me she’d be happy to get more than 20% of the primary vote — enough to give Labor pause. That was not to be. As her predicted primary continued to rise towards 30%, her face appeared more on the screen projecting election results over the house band. The chants of “Dai Le, Dai Le, Dai Le” became louder and more frenzied, while the band played a catalogue of ’80s and ’90s hits.
Le’s husband, Markus Lambert, flicked through channels looking for news about Fowler. Carbone regularly grabbed the microphone and stopped the band to excitedly yell out booth results to the energised crowd, who couldn’t have cared less. They had flipped the narrative on one of Labor’s most significant political head-kickers. Why wouldn’t they celebrate? They’d already won.
For someone who had “barely slept in weeks”, Le managed to party with the best of them, performing the political move of joining her constituents on the dance floor and avoiding looking like a slow-motion Peter Garrett.
Le was elected with 51.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote — a near mirror for the 52.4% swing Le and allied independents received in the 2021 Fairfield local government elections.
At the moment it became clear she would win, I asked Le how she was feeling.
“Honestly … I still haven’t processed it. I’ve been two weeks standing at pre-poll from 8 in the morning to 8:30 at night, every day, so that’s what I’ve been focused on,” she said.
Still saying if she was elected long after Antony Green had called the seat in her favour, Le indicated a preference for collaborative politics and a desire to work with both major parties and the crossbench.
“I’m a people person. I’m about collaboration, first and foremost. So I’m all about looking for a win-win for everybody … the pie is big enough that we can split it up, and share it across Australia.”
In a recent interview with Peter FitzSimons, Kristina Keneally scolds her would-have-been constituents:
“Harsh lockdowns engendered a sense of parochialism … I genuinely believe that whether the Labor Party ran me or anyone else in Fowler, they would have encountered the same set of challenges.”
The Labor-right faction has treated Fowler voters like parochials; they embraced the label by spending the last decade throwing the party out on its ears. Given her record, why did anyone think Keneally would be any different?
Keneally’s “… an experienced candidate, and I’m expecting her to win,” Tony said.
It would be more accurate to say she’s an experienced incumbent, rather than a candidate, and it showed. There’s something about Keneally, her assumption of an automatic path to victory and the spectacular crash of her campaign in this election that reminds me more than a little of Hillary Clinton.
I would also add an autocratic path to victory. She is Australia’s Hilary and has failure written all over her.
Imagine how well Kryptonite would now be regarded had her 3rd electoral loss also meant that ‘Labor’ did not stumble over the line into office as a majority government.
You overlook the not so small detail that Hillary was elected President of The United States.
wha…? Popular vote doesn’t count.
The Wall St party in 2016 chose the only candidate whom every opinion poll showed would struggle to win against Trump – Killary was in low single figures.
Starting with Bernie, all the other prospective Dems showed huge margins but the War party needed a boost – the Ukraine was the first project on to-do list, the ground having been ploughed, tilled & prepared in 2014.
After the disruptive interregnum, 4 years late, the agenda is on track – the armaments industry is back!
My point is that Hillary was elected by the people. Voters have no way of knowing what other voters are doing, and have no control over the Electoral College. Such is life in a non-democracy. We should know .. we’ve got one with the nation chopped up into electorates. Yes, the system elected Trump, but re the vote of the people (that’s all they’ve got), Hilary was preferred. (+ 3 million votes).
Popular. Vote. IRRELEVANT.
Is that clear enough?
Yes, very clear that you don’t understand my point. Never mind. Don’t think. It’s easier.
You probably ‘think’ that Bumbler Beasley became PM in 1998 due to receiving 51% of the popular vote on October 3rd and winning 67 seats.
Hint – he didn’t, the Rodent won 80.
Fowler will always remain a moribund welfare dependent electorate close to Sydney’s western outskirts where incomes are lower than the median for the State, where there are a great number of renters and where there are more pokie addicts than Roseville, Palm Beach or North Sydney. Yet they have a shiny shopping mall. Just few doctors than the State average. Few hospitals. Few lawyers. Foreign language ads against domestic violence. Higher unemployment. Those that are employed spend long hours in the car for commuting and public transport, particularly via trains, is infrequent and has poor coverage.
They have the highest number of clubs per person and therefore problem gamblers yet aren’t these new clubs shiny and big. A mini Vegas
Dai Le’s salary, INXS of $200,000 p.a. is in stark contrast with the average or median salary of those of her electorate. It wasn’t just Fowler that was locked down. Though the resentment felt there is completely understandable. Lockdowns also affected the seat of Blaxland, others in Sydney’s west including Watson and McMahon and at times, the northern beaches.
Carbone’s claim of a double barrel win is pertinent as with Dai Le’s win, had Labor not done so well in WA and had the teals failed in Sydney, Morrison may still be in or have a claim on being still “legitimate”, a la Tony Abbot in 2010. In the end it was a victory for Albo on paper. I say win half heartedly. It was more that Morrison lost so comprehensively. 6 of the best to the “teals” and Mark McGowan’s personal popularity, with Albo riding high on his shirt-tails. A Clive Palmer own goal.
Dai Le’s win was a triumph for parochialism, a reverse xenophobia in miniature. A dislike of the White outsider. Yet if I were a resident in Fowler (and I say I am glad I am not and there but for the Grace of God, go I), I would be surmising at all the shiny, new buildings, the clubs, sporting facilities and shopping malls and contrasting this with the poor state of schools and education in the electorate, the lower than average income of its residents, the large number of residents who are renting or on welfare, the absence of a tertiary education institution for miles and miles, the proximity of a soon to be 24 hour airport. the absence of public transport to get around. The household debt must be massive. Several cars per household. Mortgage stress abounding. Higher rents. Yet they have all these new facilities which they have to pay through the nose for to use.
I’m not really sure what the point of the three part diatribe is? Yes gambling is an issue there though that’s hardly unique to Fairfield, and arguably less destructive than the drug gangs that scarred the place a few decades back. I think also you would find if you actually talked to anyone there a fair bit of pride in those shiny new buildings, especially as many of them are the work of the locals. This started years back when the Italians Serbs and Cros built their presence via their clubs and stadiums, the Viets have followed a similar path. Even for an outsider the energy of the place is impressive; the locals are not responsible for the quality of the schools and the location of the universities, but I suspect they might soon be in receipt of a better deal from state and federal governments.. They have sure made sure that they are not taken for granted.
Yup, Metal is about thirty years out of date on…everything. To take issue with just one thuddingly anachronistic cliche: no university???? So Western Sydney University, with its multiple ultra cutting-edge campuses in Parra, Liverpool, Richmond, Camden, and more, and more (such as Bankstown) soon to come…etc…doesn’t count?
Really, such anti-Westie pigeonholing belongs in the 70’s!
As for slagging off the mighty clubs of the Golden West…you haven’t lived until you’ve wiled away a crackerjack Friday night at Panthers, or the Bankstown Sporties, or the magnificent WestHQ, armed with nought but cheap Bundy, a packet of Drum and $50 to bang though the slots.
Bogan heaven. Be proud.
So true. The energy in those clubs is incredible.
So you’re a gambler?
Ha! I’ve wasted night after night at the Strawberry Hills Hotel in the 80s and a lot more listening to original Aussie bands to worry about western Sydney clubs. There is no live music now unlike 30 years ago. Maybe that is something these clubs could do but I doubt it.
I am not 30 years out of date but thanks for the quaintness of the reference. It is the last 30 years when and where everything has gone wrong with the development of western Sydney. Before that it was great. Home of Gough. I would have loved, instead of growing up in Killara and going to school on the North Shore, to live in Fairfield or Cabramatta or Liverpool or Lidcombe or Richmond 30 – 60 years ago. It is what has happened since that I object to. Too many people. Too much housing. Too much medium density development. Too little money spent on education at all levels. Inadequate public transport even though western Sydney were among the first to get train lines. I hate to get personal buddy but I know more about western Sydney than you. Do you know that there is not one secondary State school in the Hawkesbury that teaches Modern History in Years 11 and 12? I think that this is a tragedy. You probably think it is just one of those things but I think it is a tragedy. It signifies the success of right wing governments and groups to downplay our history for good or bad. Young people have no recent memory to reference their historical understanding of Australia or any place else.
As for these cutting edge campuses, my wife did her nursing degree at Richmond which is the Hawkesbury Branch of UWS and she gave me an unprintable opinion of the place and the staff there. Cutting edge? I’m not sure but it is good that there are unis but they are shadows of the big 3 and they are so widely dispersed and they have always catered to those from the better parts of Sydney that couldn’t make it into the Big 3 unis. They are the unis for the second best option in the major subjects like Arts/Humanities, Sciences, Fine Art and some of the professional, vocational ones.
Right now there are too any social problems in these places and too many big, shiny wasteful distractions for those weak of mind and with little money.
“…Dai Le volunteers told me they saw Keneally making “rookie mistakes” campaigning, like standing in the sun too long and exhausting herself at pre-polls.”
Oh what a laugh! Reminds me of lines in Fawlty Towers. All that hand waving would wear anyone out. Or the one about the dog and the rapid movement of air. It sounds like KK is as light and unfit physically as she is politically and ideologically and substantively. “Standing in the sun too long”. I don’t think that is a rookie mistake. She represented Heffron for nearly 10 years which would have involved campaigning there even though it is a safe seat for Labor – more so than Fowler and less ethnically diverse and with a renowned university close at hand. Complete opposite of Fowler which are all small scale shops owned by Vietnamese and several other ethnic groups, a couple of shopping malls and warehouses replete with medium to high density home units with ever more congestion. Classic commuter-ville and classic welfare dependency. Heffron and Fowler are chalk and cheese and this is what is going to define and possibly destroy Labor in future if it doesn’t manage its electoral performance and develop policies which don’t see one group losing out in any way.
Not to forget where she was to be moving FROM in order to live in the electorate.
All the development that has occured in western Sydney – the football and other sporting stadia and facilities, the acquatic centres, the community centres, the shopping centres, the clubs – all are designed to get people to open their wallets and nothing else. If you go to a club – spend money on pokies as so many do – Apia, RSLs, Leagues clubs. Shopping centres – junk shops, all sorts of cheesy wares. Football stadium – how much to see a game? The place is built to rip money out of people who have the least to spend. The state of schools in western Sydney is a disgrace – pay for a private one as well. There is no uni to speak of – nearest one Rydalmere or Milperra. Poor public transport. Low paid employment opportunities – retail, warehousing, all things consumerist. Now they are going to get a 24 hour airport thrust upon them. Hopefully some employment opportunities will be created by this but due to the fact so many in Fowler and nearby federal electorates are of NESB, their skills if they have any may not be in much demand.
You write that Kinneally had “ a brief stint as a popular premier” and then “Keneally led the NSW Labor Party to a historic defeat from which they are still recovering” Bit of an oxymoron here. Popular and historic defeat!!
I recall that she certainly wasn’t “popular” in any way at all.
The author presumably meant she had a brief stint as a popular premier, followed by a time as an increasingly unpopular premier, and then crushing defeat. It’s on record she polled as the most popular state premier in Australia when she first took the job.
“To know her is to loathe her.”
Also saves time.
I had to check because I don’t recall her being popular for any length of time, but thems the facts.
KK’s flaws aside, NSW Labor was in terminal decline by the time she took over and there was no way anyone was turning that around.
That’s what I thought too. I can’t remember her being popular one little bit. It is only, and I can remember this, that she wasn’t as thoroughly dislikeable as the ones that preceded her or the goons surrounding Labor then – Tripodi, Obeid, McDonald.