As Europe’s political leaders shuttled this past fortnight from the European Commission in Brussels to the G7 in Bavaria and then on to NATO in Madrid, they finally talked themselves into committing to seeing the war in Ukraine through to the end — despite the uncertainty of just what that “end” may look like.
It’s been the first post-Angela Merkel summit, offering the first tentative read of how the new, more collective leadership of the continent will handle the improvisational politics demanded by the rolling crises that the continent’s institutions have faced since 2008.
It’s offered an opportunity, too, to exorcise Europe’s post-Trump caution about the Americans with a commitment to a significant expansion of US forces in central and eastern Europe.
The support for Ukraine is cautious, tempered by what UK PM Boris Johnson called “fatigue in populations and politicians”. Mentions of “Ukraine” and “Russia” on US cable news are back down to January levels. Axios reports war news is also down in digital outlets.
The invasion is still destabilising politics, with French President Emmanuel Macron losing his party’s majority in last month’s parliamentary elections while the largest party in Italy’s governing coalition, Five Star, is splitting over the issue.
For Johnson, on the other hand, support for Ukraine has been propping him up despite “partygate”, the scandal over supposed-to-be-banned get-togethers of government and party staff during COVID lock-down. Seems he’s now significantly more popular in Ukraine (he was made an honorary citizen of Odessa on Friday) than he is among the UK voters he’ll need next election — if he makes it.
The crisis offers an opening for national figures to try out for the recently vacated, Merkel-style continental leadership. New German chancellor Olaf Scholz was strongly out of the box with his splashy “zeitenwende” (or turning point) to rebuild Germany’s military, but he’s been hamstrung by his country’s reliance on Russian gas.
Macron has been eager to step up but has offended Ukraine’s supporters with his attempted peace-making diplomacy and he’s undermined by the loss of a parliamentary majority. Others — Mario Draghi in Italy, Pedro Sánchez in Spain and Andrzej Duda in Poland — have been similarly damaged by a lack of home support.
European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen has been a public leader in building support for Ukraine, but seems to lack embrace from the national leaders.
Despite the instability and the uncertainty, the shift — and the consensus in European attitude — has been a demonstration of how quickly what Luuk van Middelaar called “politics by event” is remaking Europe, in place of the continent’s notoriously slow-moving “politics by process”.
Just last February the shrugging assumption was that Kyiv would fall to the Russian army in days — far too quickly for it to be worthwhile doing anything about. Elite opinion normalised the invasion with a sprinkling of “realism”, wondering if maybe it was all America’s fault, after all.
The EU and NATO nations (Australia, too) were closing their embassies, pulling out their citizens, offering an escape hatch to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, getting ready for a Russian army back along the Soviet Union’s 1939 borders.
Once Ukrainian resistance fractured the mythology of Russian military might, Western Europe’s elite briefly poked around for a give-a-bit, take-a-bit negotiated outcome, widely interpreted as requiring Ukraine to cede the Donbas (or, at least, that part occupied in 2014) and Crimea. (In Macron’s diplomatic-speak, an outcome that would ensure Putin was not “humiliated”.)
Ultimately, the diplomatic option stumbled over Ukraine’s and Russia’s refusal to go along — and then fell in the face of mounting evidence of genocide in Bucha, Hostomel and Irpin left behind by the retreating Russian army outside Kyiv. To close it off, the Ukrainian government has made the towns part of any visiting leader’s itinerary — including Albanese this past weekend.
Meanwhile, in eastern Ukraine, the war grinds on in the now near three-month Battle of the Donbas, marked equally by Russia’s slow but relentless step-by-step advance and Ukraine’s destructive attrition of the invading army. It matches the raw Russian numbers against the morale of the Ukrainian defenders bolstered by the increasing supply of modern US and NATO armaments. The outcome remains anyone’s guess.
Putin has already lost the “great power” status that seemed to matter so much when the invasion began. Now a more collective European leadership has decided to use the crisis to further reshape Europe.
I find it incredibly interesting that the Russian move of placing a largish force outside of Kiev at the start of the SMO and leaving them there is continually interpreted as a Russian ‘defeat’. As many highly qualified Western military analysts have pointed out, that maneuver is highly reminiscent of Napoleon’s usage of part of his army at the battle of Austerlitz where by just placing some troops near a large grouping of the enemy, he effectively quarantined those enemy troops from joining in the battle which enabled Napoleon to defeat the main body after which he turned on the rest of the Austrian-Hungarian forces. Likewise in this instance. Placing an armoured column outside of Kiev forced the Ukrainians to reinforce Kiev thus sacrificing some of their strike power away from the Donbass area which then enabled the Russian/Cossack/Chechen/Donbass forces to consolidate in the Donbass and we see the results now – a total victory coming to those forces in the very near future. And then watch out if the Russians unleash the First Guards Tank Army on the plains/steppes of Ukraine, it will be all over very quickly bar the shouting as they say. So much for our $100M and pious disregard for any attempt at understanding the ‘enemy’. Shades of Sun Tzu.
And as for Russian gas to Europe – it was to be renegotiated this November. Maybe the Russians will just walk away from the Europeans and leave them to ‘General Winter’. What a total clusterf_ck we of the West have created. And to think that Russia wanted to join NATO and become a partner with the Europeans but were knocked back. Bloody unbelievable!
It could have all been avoided by recognizing Russia’s security concerns and providing them with mutually acceptable security guarantees but, of course, NATO took their usual “our way or the highway” approach.
A number of points that seem to be totally ignored by the Western Media.
Europe has gone to the dogs since Merkel left. Now being manipulated by Anglocentric interests led by the US and UK against its own core interests and will become one huge US vassal state. Its not just about energy but also food, fertilisers and other essential commodities that come from Russia which Europe depends on. Europe will have trouble replacing them from the world market and will have to pay very high prices.
Apols. – I did not see your post before making more or less the same points.
The US is offering to supply the EU, specifically Germany, LNP to make up shortfalls caused by not operating Nordstrom2 – at multiples of the Russian price and only an ocean away.
Imagine how Mutti would have dealt with this.
Indeed. The sanctions that Europe and the West have placed on Russia, are actually having drastic impacts on Economies around the World. Perhaps just as much or even more so that Russia.
Yes, I was just thinking of what would have happened if “Mother” was still there. Never leave a group of old men in charge of anything serious.
Another piece by Crikey that could be from any Murdoch rag. You guys should recruit Mary Kostakidis for some real commentary on Ukraine and Europe. I won’t hold my breath though!
Or Monica Attard – 20+yrs since she was Moscow correspondent and would still have more percipient comment than this stodge which reads like a cut’n’paste from wire services – analysis it ain’t.
Russia has everything that the EU needs, desperately – minor stuff like fertiliser, food (wheat), energy, minerals and did I mention ENERGY?
The EU has SFA that Russia needs.
The Black Sea is now a Russian lake, no supply chain problems for any materiel resource needed from the vast hinterland and as near an unlimited as makes no difference of supply recruits in need of battlefield training.
Agree. I’m fascinated how various media try to portray some of the events relating to the War in Ukraine.
The idea that was put forward very early in the piece by Western Analysts that Russia would take Kyiv in “days”, was simply just a guess, as they had no idea of Russia’s military plans.
Other similar poor analysis from Western “experts” along the way has also proven to be wrong.
The Geo Political reasons behind Russia’s invasion also seem to be totally ignored.
And, as recently as March 2022, Putin again outlined Russia’s “six demands of Ukraine” to end the war:
NATO has over time reneged on agreements as far as expansion, which has obviously made Russia more nervous as they creep closer to Russia’s Borders. So, perhaps Russia’s response, and their demands are not as “bad” as they are being portrayed.
If all the issues about Russia were boiled down we are left with the US’s obsession to take control of its sovereign wealth which is the largest in the world by far. Estimated at 75 trillion dollars. To this they have to diminish Russia as well as balkanise it. Then they can tackle China and diminish and balkanise it as well. We are entering the age of great completion for the worlds resources and Russia and China are the US greatest competitors. The US is inserting itself into their spheres of influence with the aim to destabilise which by extension destabilises the rest of the world.
Yep when it comes to countries competing economically it’s free markets my Rz. Other nations aren’t allowed corrupt billionaires like the USA.
Spot on. In fact I have heard from ex Secretary’s of State the complaint that it ‘isn’t fair’ that Russia has so much sovereign wealth and that they should share it around a bit. Just like the Yanks have done with their natural riches by benificently sharing it with the rest of the world (LOL). Total and absolute hypocrisy. Predatory capitalism at its finest. The ‘Rules based Order’ benefiting only those who make the rules.
’Now a more collective European leadership has decided to use the crises to further reshape Europe’.
There is only one leader currently ‘reshaping Europe’ and it isn’t the collective West…