This weekend Russia’s invasion will grind over into its sixth month. Yet while the shooting part is (so far) confined to Ukraine, the war is doing considerable damage to Europe’s political and economic structures — and its commitment to standing up to Vladimir Putin.
The European Union member states are in a race to ramp down their energy dependency on Russian gas in as orderly a way as possible before Putin’s weaponisation of supply shatters support for Ukraine.
A quarter of Europe’s energy comes from gas, and 40% of that gas comes from Russia (more for countries in central Europe and Germany). About a quarter of Europe’s crude oil also comes from Russia.
“Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday in announcing an “ask” to the 27 members to cut use of gas by at least 15% between August and the end of winter next March. Initially voluntary, the commission can make it mandatory if required.
While right now the global climate crisis is playing out in Europe with record heat, winter is coming. And it’s then that Europe’s leaders expect Russia to cut off gas supplies altogether (the “likely scenario” says von der Leyen), literally freezing Europe out of its support for Ukraine.
Russia has already throttled back supply due to “maintenance”, forcing Germany and Canada to waive replacement parts through sanctions (to the anger of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy). This throttling is preventing EU states from building up reserves for winter.
Russia is maneuvering for a repeat of the Minsk accords in 2014 and 2015 when Western European powers brokered a “temporary” ceasefire across the Donbas in eastern Ukraine which protected Europe’s continuing “business as usual” supply of gas.
Now, a renewed ceasefire along the current front line would deliver Russia the remainder of the Donbas and a land corridor connecting Crimea (and protecting the peninsula’s supply of water).
The Russian pressure is already fracturing European politics, with the collapse of the pro-Europe ruling coalition in Bulgaria after Russia cut off gas supplies. In Italy, the surprisingly durable Draghi government has been forced to a confidence vote after a split over Russia in one of the major governing parties.
The energy crisis has prompted the Macron government in France to buy out the country’s major energy company, EDF, to ensure it can guarantee the continued viability of its nuclear energy program.
Within Ukraine, there’s a fear that Europe threatens to go all Scott Morrison on them — all announcement, limited delivery. Worse, it seems even the announcements are starting to dry up,
Chief target of the finger-pointing is Germany which, for all its talk of a time-turning zietenwende, has managed to both underpromise and then underdeliver on those promises.
According to the Ukraine aid tracker of one of the continent’s oldest think tanks, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, by July 1 Germany had delivered only €290 million in direct in-kind military equipment of its already laggard promise of €620 million. (It’s pledged a further €900 in financial aid to buy weaponry, largely from German suppliers, although it’s limiting sales of offensive weapons.)
By comparison with Germany, the major EU-member contributor has been Poland which has delivered the full €1.8 billion it has committed. The continent’s major military power, France, says it’s keeping most of its contribution confidential.
The other top-five military backers are non-EU members of NATO: Norway, Canada, the UK and the United States.
The US dwarfs all other countries, having supplied €2.44 billion, with another €4 billion promised. Most significantly, it has recently supplied a dozen state-of-the-art high-mobility multiple rocket launchers which are credited with equalising the two sides as the front line digs into artillery duels.
Ukraine fears Europe (particularly the “old Europe” of France and Germany) won’t be able to resist the temptation to cut a deal if the two sides dig in with a military stalemate. Conscious that time may not be on its side, Ukraine is talking up a series of “any day now” military offensives, particularly around Kherson which bridges the Dnipro river in southern Ukraine.
Another article attempting to blame all of Europe’s energy woes purely on Russia.
““Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon”.
With Europe and the West putting heavy sanctions on Russia due to the War in Ukraine, I suppose they all just thought that Putin would pack up shop and say its all not worth the trouble – I’m sorry.
The sanctions are fast becoming a millstone around the necks of all of those who instigated them, with enormous flow on Economic effects, including what is easily seen as an act of retaliation, (should have been expected), by Russia.
Newton’s 3rd Law in operation: For every Action, there is an equal and opposite Reaction
Gas is the enemy, Putin its henchman. Almost every economy in Europe is beholden to gas. Sure, leaders will claim that it is renewables that have displaced domestic coal in each country. However the statistics show that it is not renewables but renewables-plus-gas that has risen. On still dark days, it is simply gas. Russian gas. The fanatical energy revolution in Germany claimed (until Ukraine) to have converted the entire economy to renewables. However a check of the primary energy consumption of Germany shows that renewables contribute only 16%. Guess what? Gas contributes 27%. It is clear that it is gas that is taking over Germany, not renewables. While gas controls Europe, Putin can do whatever he darn well likes.
The US encouraged Ukraine to sabotage Minsk II agreements that would prevented this war against the wishes of France and Germany who helped broker them.
The the US stopped Europe from going ahead with gas deliveries from NS2 pipeline further raising tensions.
Europe were sucked in to follow US interests against their own interests. Europe got played bad and now paying the price.
Sgt
Agreed Ukraine is just another country the US is sacrificing for its own benefit.
US making money out of gas exports to Europe. The US armament industry (State Capture) doing well. A clear winner.
Ukraine sacrificing the lives of their citizens and having infrastructure obliterated. Well and truly duded.
I cannot believe. West puts sanctions on Russia. The evil Russians retaliate by putting sanctions on Europe – cut of gas. Who would have thought of that?
Germany refused to sign-off on Nordstrom2 (all tests & certifications having been completed) 3 days before Russia moved into Ukraine.
Pure coincidence – whilst rushing to complete LNG port terminals for US gas (3 times the cost and climbing) tankers.